Accepted version. Contains some material from arXiv:1710.10295v1. 13 pages, 4 figures
发表信息：
Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Applications in Nonlinear Dynamics, V. In, P. Longhini, and A. Palacios (eds.), Springer International Publishing (2019)
We present a model describing the temporal evolution of opinions due to interactions among a network of individuals. This Accept-Shift-Constrict (ASC) model is formulated in terms of coupled nonlinear differential equations for opinions and uncertainties. The ASC model dynamics allows for the emergence and persistence of majority positions so that the mean opinion can shift even for a symmetric network. The model also formulates a distinction between opinion and rhetoric in accordance with a recently proposed theory of the group polarization effect. This enables the modeling of discussion-induced shifts toward the extreme without the typical modeling assumption of greater resistance to persuasion among extremists. An experiment is described in which triads engaged in online discussion. Simulations show that the ASC model is in qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experimental data.
Most previous works on opinion modeling lack the simultaneous study of individual mental activity and group behavior. This paper is motivated to propose an agent-based online opinion formation model based on attitude change theory, group behavior theory and evolutionary game theory in the perspective of sociology and psychology. In this model, there are three factors influencing the persuasion process, including credibility of the leaders, characteristic of the recipient, and group environment. The proposed model is applied to Twitter to analyze the influence of topic type, parameter changing,…
We present a novel software suite for social network modeling and opinion diffusion processes. Much research on social network science has assumed networks with static topologies. More recently, attention has been turned to networks that evolve. Although software for modeling both the topological evolution of networks and diffusion processes are constantly improving, very little attention has been paid to agent modeling. Our software is designed to be robust, modular, and extensible, providing the ability to model dynamic social network topologies and multidimensional diffusion processes, diff…
Recent years saw an increased interest in modeling and understanding the mechanisms of opinion and innovation spread through human networks. Using analysis of real-world social data, researchers are able to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of social networks and subsequently model the changes in such networks over time. We developed a social network model that both utilizes an agent-based approach with a dynamic update of opinions and connections between agents and reflects opinion propagation and structural changes over time as observed in real-world data. We validate the model usi…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reminded us how vaccination can be a divisive topic on which the public conversation is permeated by misleading claims, and thoughts tend to polarize, especially on online social networks. In this work, motivated by recent natural language processing techniques to systematically extract and quantify opinions from text messages, we present a differential framework for bivariate opinion formation dynamics that is coupled with a compartmental model for fake news dissemination. Thanks to a mean-field analysis we demonstrate that the resulting Fokker-Planck system permits to…
We introduce and discuss kinetic models of opinion formation on social networks in which the distribution function depends on both the opinion and the connectivity of the agents. The opinion formation model is subsequently coupled with a kinetic model describing the spreading of popularity of a product on the web through a social network. Numerical experiments on the underlying kinetic models show a good qualitative agreement with some measured trends of hashtags on social media websites and illustrate how companies can take advantage of the network structure to obtain at best the advertisemen…
Network dynamics has always been a meaningful topic deserving exploration in the realm of academy. previous network models contain two parts: (1) generating structure as per user property; (2) changing property as per network structure. Properties in these models, however, cannot be interpreted to concept in prevalent social theories or empirical truth. Also, they usually treat everyone in an uniform fashion. While such assumption is quite misguiding, and thus saliently limits their performance. To overcome these flaws, we devise a personalized evolving model for social network and opinion (PE…
The heterogeneity of the influence processes is an important feature of social systems: how we perceive social influence and how we influence other individuals is heavily influenced by our opinion and non-opinion attributes. The latter include demographic, cultural, and structural (how we are embedded in social networks) characteristics. Furthermore, the results of the influence processes may also depend on how similar the interacting individuals are in terms of their features. This paper addresses this issue and elaborates on an agent-based model that is sensitive to the individual characteri…
We survey some recent developments on the mathematical modeling of opinion dynamics. After an introduction on opinion modeling through interacting multi-agent systems described by partial differential equations of kinetic type, we focus our attention on two major advancements: optimal control of opinion formation and influence of additional social aspects, like conviction and number of connections in social networks, which modify the agents' role in the opinion exchange process.
We investigate the opinion formation among the peoples and multiple political parties using the one dimensional relativistic Boltzmann-Vlasov equation for multi-components. A political party is constituted of politicians. The opinion formation depends on self-thinkings of peoples and politicians, and the constraint of the political party over opinions of politicians, when we restrict ourselves to the conciliatory exchange of opinions between two individuals. In particular, shock like profiles are obtained in the distribution of opinions of peoples, when the self-thinking of politicians are abs…
Frequently we revise our first opinions after talking over with other individuals because we get convinced. Argumentation is a verbal and social process aimed at convincing. It includes conversation and persuasion. In this case, the agreement is reached because the new arguments are incorporated. In this paper we deal with a simple model of opinion formation with such persuasion dynamics, and we find the exact analytical solutions for both, long and short range interactions. A novel theoretical approach has been used in order to solve the master equations of the model with non-local kernels. S…
Confirmation bias and peer pressure both have substantial impacts on the formation of collective decisions. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to study how the interplay between these two mechanisms affects public opinion evolution. Here we propose an agent-based model of opinion dynamics which incorporates the conjugate effect of confirmation bias (characterized by the population identity scope and individual stubbornness) and peer pressure (described by a susceptibility threshold). We show that the number of opinion fragments first increases and then decreases to one as population ide…
Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversiality and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts we devise an extended opinion dynamics model where agents with different opinions perform a single task to make a consensual product. As a function of the convergence parameter describing the influence of the product on the agents, the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking of the final consensus opinion represented by the medium. In the case when agents are replaced with new one…
Echo chambers and opinion polarization recently quantified in several sociopolitical contexts and across different social media, raise concerns on their potential impact on the spread of misinformation and on openness of debates. Despite increasing efforts, the dynamics leading to the emergence of these phenomena stay unclear. We propose a model that introduces the dynamics of radicalization, as a reinforcing mechanism driving the evolution to extreme opinions from moderate initial conditions. Inspired by empirical findings on social interaction dynamics, we consider agents characterized by he…
In this Chapter, I will explore the use of modeling in order to understand how Science works. I will discuss the modeling of scientific communities, providing a general, non-comprehensive overview of existing models, with a focus on the use of the tools of Agent-Based Modeling and Opinion Dynamics. A special attention will be paid to models inspired by a Bayesian formalism of Opinion Dynamics. The objective of this exploration is to better understand the effect that different conditions might have on the reliability of the opinions of a scientific community. We will see that, by using artifici…
Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allow…
Opinion formation has been gaining increasing research interests recently, and various models have been proposed. These models, however, have their limitations, among which noticeably include (i) it is generally assumed that adjacent nodes holding similar opinions will further reduce their difference in between, while adjacent nodes holding significantly different opinions would either do nothing, or cut the link in between them; (ii) opinion mutation, which describes "opinion changes not due to neighborhood influences" in real life, is typically random. While such models enjoy their simplicit…
The diffusion of opinions in Social Networks is a relevant process for adopting positions and attracting potential voters in political campaigns. Opinion polarization, bias, targeted diffusion, and the radicalization of postures are key elements for understanding voting dynamics. In particular, social bots are a new element that can have a pronounced effect on the formation of opinions during elections by, for instance, creating fake accounts in social networks to manipulate elections. Here we propose a voter model incorporating bots and radical or intolerant individuals in the decision-making…
We investigate the emergence of extreme opinion trends in society by employing statistical physics modeling and analysis on polls that inquire about a wide range of issues such as religion, economics, politics, abortion, extramarital sex, books, movies, and electoral vote. The surveys lay out a clear indicator of the rise of extreme views. The precursor is a nonlinear relation between the fraction of individuals holding a certain extreme view and the fraction of individuals that includes also moderates, e.g., in politics, those who are "very conservative" versus "moderate to very conservative"…
We investigate the formation of opinion against authority in an authoritarian society composed of agents with different levels of authority. We explore a "dissenting" opinion, held by lower-ranking, obedient, or less authoritative people, spreading in an environment of an "affirmative" opinion held by authoritative leaders. A real-world example would be a corrupt society where people revolt against such leaders, but it can be applied to more general situations. In our model, agents can change their opinion depending on their authority relative to their neighbors and their own confidence level.…
Much recent research on social networks has focused on the modeling and analysis of how opinions evolve as a function of interpersonal relationships. It is also of great interest to model and understand the implications of friendly and antagonistic relationships. In this paper, we propose a new, simple and intuitive model that incorporates the socio-psychological phenomenon of the boomerang effect in opinion dynamics. We establish that, under certain conditions on the structure of the signed network that corresponds to the so-called structural balance property, the opinions in the network pola…
Wikipedia is a prime example of today's value production in a collaborative environment. Using this example, we model the emergence, persistence and resolution of severe conflicts during collaboration by coupling opinion formation with article editing in a bounded confidence dynamics. The complex social behavior involved in editing articles is implemented as a minimal model with two basic elements; (i) individuals interact directly to share information and convince each other, and (ii) they edit a common medium to establish their own opinions. Opinions of the editors and that represented by th…
The mass media plays a fundamental role in the formation of public opinion, either by defining the topics of discussion or by making an emphasis on certain issues. Directly or indirectly, people get informed by consuming news from the media. Naturally, two questions appear: What are the dynamics of the agenda and how the people become interested in their different topics? These questions cannot be answered without proper quantitative measures of agenda dynamics and public attention. In this work we study the agenda of newspapers in comparison with public interests by performing topic detection…
Budapest University of Technology and Economics（布达佩斯技术与经济大学）
Evolution of belief systems has always been in focus of cognitive research. In this paper we delineate a new model describing belief systems as a network of statements considered true. Testing the model a small number of parameters enabled us to reproduce a variety of well-known mechanisms ranging from opinion changes to development of psychological problems. The self-organizing opinion structure showed a scale-free degree distribution. The novelty of our work lies in applying a convenient set of definitions allowing us to depict opinion network dynamics in a highly favorable way, which result…
We present the result of a dual modeling of opinion network. The model complements the agent-based opinion models by attaching to the social agent (voters) network a political opinion (party) network having its own intrinsic mechanisms of evolution. These two sub-networks form a global network which can be either isolated from or dependent on the external influence. Basically, the evolution of the agent network includes link adding and deleting, the opinion changes influenced by social validation, the political climate, the attractivity of the parties and the interaction between them. The opin…
Quantum Modeling of Filter Bubbles Based on Kubo-Matsubara Form Green's Functions Considering Remote and Proximity Interactions:Ultraviolet Divergence to Indefinite Ghosting, Consideration of Cut Surfaces
We study a cellular automaton opinion formation model of Ising type, with antiferromagnetic pair interactions modeling anticonformism, and ferromagnetic plaquette terms modeling the social norm constraints. For a sufficiently large connectivity, the mean-field equation for the average magnetization (opinion density) is chaotic. This "chaoticity" would imply irregular coherent oscillations of the whole society, that may eventually lead to a sudden jump into an absorbing state, if present. However, simulations on regular one-dimensional lattices show a different scenario: local patches may oscil…
Online social media such as Twitter are widely used for mining public opinions and sentiments on various issues and topics. The sheer volume of the data generated and the eager adoption by the online-savvy public are helping to raise the profile of online media as a convenient source of news and public opinions on social and political issues as well. Due to the uncontrollable biases in the population who heavily use the media, however, it is often difficult to measure how accurately the online sphere reflects the offline world at large, undermining the usefulness of online media. One way of id…
In seeking to explain aspects of real-world economies that defy easy understanding when analysed via conventional means, Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller has since 2017 introduced and developed the idea of Narrative Economics, where observable economic factors such as the dynamics of prices in asset markets are explained largely as a consequence of the narratives (i.e., the stories) heard, told, and believed by participants in those markets. Shiller argues that otherwise irrational and difficult-to-explain behaviors, such as investors participating in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets, are b…
A long line of work in social psychology has studied variations in people's susceptibility to persuasion -- the extent to which they are willing to modify their opinions on a topic. This body of literature suggests an interesting perspective on theoretical models of opinion formation by interacting parties in a network: in addition to considering interventions that directly modify people's intrinsic opinions, it is also natural to consider interventions that modify people's susceptibility to persuasion. In this work, we adopt a popular model for social opinion dynamics, and we formalize the op…
A model needs to make verifiable predictions to have any scientific value. In opinion dynamics, the study of how individuals exchange opinions with one another, there are many theoretical models which attempt to model opinion exchange, one of which is the Martins model, which differs from other models by using a parameter that is easier to control for in an experiment. In this paper, we have designed an experiment to verify the Martins model and contribute to the experimental design in opinion dynamic with our novel method.
Matrix-weighted networks for modeling multidimensional dynamics
Nordita, Stockholm University and KTH Royal Institute of Technology（北欧理论物理研究所、斯德哥尔摩大学及皇家理工学院）；School of Systems Science and Industrial Engineering, Binghamton University（宾汉姆顿大学系统科学与工业工程学院）；Waseda University（早稻田大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
Opinions and beliefs determine the evolution of social systems. This is of particular interest in finance, as the increasing complexity of financial systems is coupled with information overload. Opinion formation, therefore, is not always the result of optimal information processing. On the contrary, agents are boundedly rational and naturally tend to observe and imitate others in order to gain further insights. Hence, a certain degree of interaction, which can be envisioned as a network, occurs within the system. Opinions, the interaction network and prices in financial markets are then heavi…
Accurate modeling of opinion dynamics has the potential to help us understand polarization and what makes effective political discourse possible or impossible. Here, we use physics-based methods to model the evolution of political opinions within a continuously distributed population. We utilize a network-free system of determining political influence and a local-attraction, distal-repulsion dynamic for reaction to perceived content. Our approach allows for the incorporation of intergroup bias such that messages from trusted in-group sources enjoy greater leeway than out-group ones. We are abl…
Demographic Dependence of Vaccine Adoption under Opinion Persuasion
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）；University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland (HES-SO)（瑞士西部应用科学大学）；Adelaide University（阿德莱德大学）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
École Télécom ParisTech（巴黎高等电信学院）；Centre de Recherche en Épistémologie Appliquée（应用认识论研究中心）；École Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）
The controversy about the cause(s) of abnormal death of bee colonies in France is investigated through an extensive analysis of the french speaking press. A statistical analysis of textual data is first performed on the lexicon used by journalists to describe the facts and to present associated informations during the period 1998-2010. Three states are identified to explain the phenomenon. The first state asserts a unique cause, the second one focuses on multifactor causes and the third one states the absence of current proof. Assigning each article to one of the three states, we are able to f…
In some social networks, the opinion forming is based on its own and neighbors' (initial) opinions, whereas the evolution of the individual opinions is also influenced by the individual's past opinions in the real world. Unlike existing social network models, in this paper, a novel model of opinion dynamics is proposed, which describes the evolution of the individuals' opinions not only depends on its own and neighbors' current opinions, but also depends on past opinions. Memory and memoryless communication rules are simultaneously established for the proposed opinion dynamics model. Sufficien…
Topological heterogeneities of social networks have a strong impact on the individuals embedded in those networks. One of the interesting phenomena driven by such heterogeneities is the friendship paradox (FP), stating that the mean degree of one's neighbors is larger than the degree of oneself. Alternatively, one can use the median degree of neighbors as well as the fraction of neighbors having a higher degree than oneself. Each of these reflects on how people perceive their neighborhoods, i.e., their perception models, hence how they feel peer pressure. In our paper, we study the impact of p…
