媒体中的建模争议：异常蜜蜂死亡案例
Modeling controversies in the press: the case of the abnormal bees' death
摘要：
通过对法语媒体的广泛分析，对法国蜂群非正常死亡原因的争议进行了调查。本文首先对1998-2010年期间记者用来描述事实和呈现相关信息的词汇进行了文本数据的统计分析。三种状态被确定来解释这种现象。第一个状态断言一个独特的原因，第二个侧重于多因素的原因，第三个状态缺乏当前的证据。将每篇文章分为三个状态之一，我们能够跟踪13年来记者之间的相关观点动力学。然后，我们应用Galam序贯概率模型的意见动态这些数据。假设记者们要么思想开放，要么对他们各自的观点不加改变，只要我们考虑到各自观点比例的一系列年度变化，结果就会准确地再现。研究结果揭示了一个新的违反直觉的情况，即化学工业、养蜂人、专家或政治家对记者施加的各种压力。所获得的动态各自的告密者显示游说的可能效果，辩论的惯性和第一个告密者获得的净优势。
英文摘要：
The controversy about the cause(s) of abnormal death of bee colonies in France is investigated through an extensive analysis of the french speaking press. A statistical analysis of textual data is first performed on the lexicon used by journalists to describe the facts and to present associated informations during the period 1998-2010. Three states are identified to explain the phenomenon. The first state asserts a unique cause, the second one focuses on multifactor causes and the third one states the absence of current proof. Assigning each article to one of the three states, we are able to follow the associated opinion dynamics among the journalists over 13 years. Then, we apply the Galam sequential probabilistic model of opinion dynamic to those data. Assuming journalists are either open mind or inflexible about their respective opinions, the results are reproduced precisely provided we account for a series of annual changes in the proportions of respective inflexibles. The results shed a new counter intuitive light on the various pressure supposed to apply on the journalists by either chemical industries or beekeepers and experts or politicians. The obtained dynamics of respective inflexibles shows the possible effect of lobbying, the inertia of the debate and the net advantage gained by the first whistleblowers.
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