This chapter gives a synopsis of recent approaches to model and analyse the evolution of microbial populations under selection. The first part reviews two population genetic models of Lenski's long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli, where models aim at explaining the observed curve of the evolution of the mean fitness. The second part describes a model of a host-pathogen system where the population of pathogenes experiences balancing selection, migration, and mutation, as motivated by observations of the genetic diversity of HCMV (the human cytomegalovirus) across hosts.
Mutations in a microbial population can increase the frequency of a genotype not only by increasing its exponential growth rate, but also by decreasing its lag time or adjusting the yield (resource efficiency). The contribution of multiple life-history traits to selection is a critical question for evolutionary biology as we seek to predict the evolutionary fates of mutations. Here we use a model of microbial growth to show there are two distinct components of selection corresponding to the growth and lag phases, while the yield modulates their relative importance. The model predicts rich popu…
Microbial populations in the natural environment are likely to experience growth conditions very different from those of a typical laboratory xperiment. In particular, removal rates of biomass and substrate are unlikely to be balanced under realistic environmental conditions. Here, we consider a single population growing on a substrate under conditions where the removal rates of substrate and biomass are not necessarily equal. For a large population, with deterministic growth dynamics, our model predicts that this system can show transient (damped) oscillations. For a small population, demogra…
Autoinducers are small signaling molecules that mediate intercellular communication in microbial populations and trigger coordinated gene expression via "quorum sensing". Elucidating the mechanisms that control autoinducer production is, thus, pertinent to understanding collective microbial behavior, such as virulence and bioluminescence. Recent experiments have shown a heterogeneous promoter activity of autoinducer synthase genes, suggesting that some of the isogenic cells in a population might produce autoinducers, whereas others might not. However, the mechanism underlying this phenotypic h…
We investigate a stochastic individual-based model for the population dynamics of host-virus systems where the microbial hosts may transition into a dormant state upon contact with virions, thus evading infection. Such a contact-mediated defence mechanism was described in Bautista et al (2015) for an archaeal host, while Jackson and Fineran (2019) and Meeske et al (2019) describe a related, CRISPR-Cas induced, dormancy defense of bacterial hosts to curb phage epidemics. We first analyse the effect of the dormancy-related model parameters on the probability and time of invasion of a newly arriv…
The evolution of antimicrobial resistance can be strongly affected by variations of antimicrobial concentration. Here, we study the impact of periodic alternations of absence and presence of antimicrobial on resistance evolution in a microbial population, using a stochastic model that includes variations of both population composition and size, and fully incorporates stochastic population extinctions. We show that fast alternations of presence and absence of antimicrobial are inefficient to eradicate the microbial population and strongly favor the establishment of resistance, unless the antimi…
The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for populations dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bidirectional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco evolutionary feedback loops, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally in social species and their ecologica…
The evolution of antimicrobial resistance generally occurs in an environment where antimicrobial concentration is variable, which has dramatic consequences on the microorganisms' fitness landscape, and thus on the evolution of resistance. We investigate the effect of these time-varying patterns of selection within a stochastic model. We consider a homogeneous microbial population of fixed size subjected to periodic alternations of phases of absence and presence of an antimicrobial that stops growth. Combining analytical approaches and stochastic simulations, we quantify how the time necessary …
Phase variation, or stochastic switching between alternative states of gene expression, is common among microbes, and may be important in coping with changing environments. We use a theoretical model to assess whether such switching is a good strategy for growth in environments with occasional catastrophic events. We find that switching can be advantageous, but only when the environment is responsive to the microbial population. In our model, microbes switch randomly between two phenotypic states, with different growth rates. The environment undergoes sudden "catastrophes", the probability of …
Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitativ…
Evolutionary transitions among ecological interactions are widely known, although their detailed dynamics remain absent for most population models. Adaptive dynamics has been used to illustrate how the parameters of population models might shift through evolution, but within an ecological regime. Here we use adaptive dynamics combined with a generalised logistic model of population dynamics to show that transitions of ecological interactions might appear as a consequence of evolution. To this purpose we introduce a two-microbial toy model in which population parameters are determined by a book…
We consider the extension of the `Moran effect', where correlated noise generates synchrony between isolated single species populations, to the study of synchrony between populations embedded in multi-species communities. In laboratory experiments on complex microbial communities, comprising both predators (protozoa) and prey (bacteria), we observe synchrony in abundances between isolated replicates. A breakdown in synchrony occurs for both predator and prey as the reactor dilution rate increases, which corresponds to both an increased rate of input of external resources and an increased effec…
Cooperative behavior is widespread in nature, even though cooperating individuals always run the risk to be exploited by free-riders. Population structure effectively promotes cooperation given that a threshold in the level of cooperation was already reached. However, the question how cooperation can emerge from a single mutant, which cannot rely on a benefit provided by other cooperators, is still puzzling. Here, we investigate this question for a well-defined but generic situation based on typical life-cycles of microbial populations where individuals regularly form new colonies followed by …
The evolution of microbial and viral organisms often generates clonal interference, a mode of competition between genetic clades within a population. In this paper, we show that interference strongly constrains the genetic and phenotypic complexity of evolving systems. Our analysis uses biophysically grounded evolutionary models for an organism's quantitative molecular phenotypes, such as fold stability and enzymatic activity of genes. We find a generic mode of asexual evolution called phenotypic interference with strong implications for systems biology: it couples the stability and function o…
Cooperative behavior, the costly provision of benefits to others, is common across all domains of life. This review article discusses cooperative behavior in the microbial world, mediated by the exchange of extracellular products called public goods. We focus on model species for which the production of a public good and the related growth disadvantage for the producing cells are well described. To unveil the biological and ecological factors promoting the emergence and stability of cooperative traits we take an interdisciplinary perspective and review insights gained from both mathematical mo…
In exponentially proliferating populations of microbes, the population typically doubles at a rate less than the average doubling time of a single-cell due to variability at the single-cell level. It is known that the distribution of generation times obtained from a single lineage is, in general, insufficient to determine a population's growth rate. Is there an explicit relationship between observables obtained from a single lineage and the population growth rate? We show that a population's growth rate can be represented in terms of averages over isolated lineages. This lineage representation…
How producers of public goods persist in microbial communities is a major question in evolutionary biology. Cooperation is evolutionarily unstable, since cheating strains can reproduce quicker and take over. Spatial structure has been shown to be a robust mechanism for the evolution of cooperation. Here we study how spatial assortment might emerge from native dynamics and show that fluid flow shear promotes cooperative behavior. Social structures arise naturally from our advection-diffusion-reaction model as self-reproducing Turing patterns. We computationally study the effects of fluid advect…
Travelling waves of invasion in microbial communities with phenotypic switching
Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems（马克斯·普朗克复杂系统物理研究所）；Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology and Genetics（马克斯·普朗克分子细胞生物学与遗传学研究所）；Center for Systems Biology Dresden（德累斯顿系统生物学中心）
Elucidating the spatial dynamic and core constituents of the microbial communities found in association with arthropod hosts is of crucial importance for insects that may vector human or agricultural pathogens. The hematophagous Cimex lectularius, known as the common bed bug, has made a recent resurgence in North America, as well as worldwide, potentially owing to increased travel and resistance to insecticides. A comprehensive survey of the bed bug microbiome has not been performed to date, nor has an assessment of the spatial dynamics of its microbiome. Here we present a survey of bed bug mi…
Microbial biomass carbon (MBC), a crucial soil labile carbon fraction, is the most active component of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that regulates bio-geochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems. Some studies in the literature ignore the effect of microbial population growth on carbon decomposition rates. In reality, we might expect that the decomposition rate should be related to the population of microbes in the soil and have a positive relationship with the size of the microbial biomass pool. In this study, we explore the effect of microbial population growth on the accuracy of modelli…
Statistical fluctuations in population sizes of microbes may be quite large depending on the nature of their underlying stochastic dynamics. For example, the variance of the population size of a microbe undergoing a pure birth process with unlimited resources is proportional to the square of its mean. We refer to such large fluctuations, with the variance growing as square of the mean, as Giant Number Fluctuations (GNF). Luria and Delbruck showed that spontaneous mutation processes in microbial populations exhibit GNF. We explore whether GNF can arise in other microbial ecologies. We study cer…
When microbes compete for limited resources, they often engage in chemical warfare using bacterial toxins. This competition can be understood in terms of evolutionary game theory (EGT). We study the predictions of EGT for the bacterial "suicide bomber" game in terms of the phase portraits of population dynamics, for parameter combinations that cover all interesting games for two-players, and seven of the 38 possible phase portraits of the three-player game. We compare these predictions to simulations of these competitions in finite well-mixed populations, but also allowing for probabilistic ra…
The existence of phenotypic heterogeneity in single-species bacterial biofilms is well-established in the published literature. However, the modeling of population dynamics in biofilms from the viewpoint of social interactions, i.e. interplay between heterotypic strains, and the analysis of this kind using control theory are not addressed significantly. Therefore, in this paper, we theoretically analyze the population dynamics model in microbial biofilms with non-participating strains (coexisting with public goods producers and non-producers) in the context of evolutionary game theory and nonl…
The tolerance of bacterial populations to biocidal or antibiotic treatment has been well documented in both biofilm and planktonic settings. However, there is still very little known about the mechanisms that produce this tolerance. Evidence that small, non-mutant subpopulations of bacteria are not affected by antibiotic challenge has been accumulating and provides an attractive explanation for the failure of typical dosing protocols. Although a dosing challenge can kill all the susceptible bacteria, the remaining persister cells can serve as a source of population regrowth. We give a robust c…
Antibiotics resistance has caused much complication in the treatment of diseases, where the pathogen is no longer susceptible to specific antibiotics and the use of such antibiotics are no longer effective for treatment. A recent study that utilizes digital organisms suggests that complete elimination of specific antibiotic resistance is unlikely after the disuse of antibiotics, assuming that there are no fitness costs for maintaining resistance once resistance are established. Fitness cost are referred to as reaction to change in environment, where organism improves its' abilities in one area…
In nature microbial populations are subject to fluctuating nutrient levels. Nutrient fluctuations are important for evolutionary and ecological dynamics in microbial communities since they impact growth rates, population sizes and biofilm formation. Here we use automated continuous-culture devices and high-throughput imaging to show that when populations of Escherichia coli are subjected to cycles of nutrient excess (feasts) and scarcity (famine) their abundance dynamics during famines depend on the frequency and amplitude of feasts. We show that frequency and amplitude dependent dynamics in p…
A variety of genome transformations can occur as a microbial population adapts to a large environmental change. In particular, genomic surveys indicate that, following the transition to an obligate, host-dependent symbiont, the density of transposons first rises, then subsequently declines over evolutionary time. Here, we show that these observations can be accounted for by a class of generic stochastic models for the evolution of genomes in the presence of continuous selection and gene duplication. The models use a fitness function that allows for partial contributions from multiple gene copi…
Population analysis is persistently challenging but important, leading to the determination of diversity and function prediction of microbial community members. Here we detail our bioinformatics methods for analyzing population distribution and diversity in large microbial communities. This was achieved via (i) a homology based method for robust phylotype determination, equaling the classification accuracy of the Ribosomal Database Project (RDP) classifier, but providing improved associations of closely related sequences; (ii) a comparison of different clustering methods for achieving more acc…
Microbial populations adapt to their environment by acquiring advantageous mutations, but in the early twentieth century, questions about how these organisms acquire mutations arose. The experiment of Salvador Luria and Max Delbrück that won them a Nobel Prize in 1969 confirmed that mutations don't occur out of necessity, but instead can occur many generations before there is a selective advantage, and thus organisms follow Darwinian evolution instead of Lamarckian. Since then, new areas of research involving microbial evolution have spawned as a result of their experiment. Determining the mut…
These lecture notes introduce key concepts of mathematical population genetics within the most elementary setting and describe a few recent applications to microbial evolution experiments. Pointers to the literature for further reading are provided, and some of the derivations are left as exercises for the reader.
Microbial colonies are experimental model systems for studying the colonization of new territory by biological species through range expansion. We study a generalization of the two-species Eden model, which incorporates local frequency-dependent selection, in order to analyze how social interactions between two species influence surface roughness of growing microbial colonies. The model includes several classical scenarios from game theory. We then concentrate on an expanding public goods game, where either cooperators or defectors take over the front depending on the system parameters. We ana…
Università di Bologna（博洛尼亚大学）；European Centre for Living Technology（欧洲生命技术中心）；Institute for Systems Biology（系统生物学研究所）
Mixed microbial communities, usually composed of various bacterial and fungal species, are fundamental in a plethora of environments, from soil to human gut and skin. Their evolution is a paradigmatic example of intertwined dynamics, where not just the relations among species plays a role, but also the opportunities -- and possible harms -- that each species presents to the others. These opportunities are in fact \textit{affordances}, which can be seized by heritable variation and selection. In this paper, starting from a systemic viewpoint of mixed microbial communities, we focus on the pivot…
Social dilemmas are an integral part of social interactions. Cooperative actions, ranging from secreting extra-cellular products in microbial populations to donating blood in humans, are costly to the actor and hence create an incentive to shirk and avoid the costs. Nevertheless, cooperation is ubiquitous in nature. Both costs and benefits often depend non-linearly on the number and types of individuals involved -- as captured by idioms such as `too many cooks spoil the broth' where additional contributions are discounted, or `two heads are better than one' where cooperators synergistically en…
The growth and evolution of microbial populations is often subjected to advection by fluid flows in spatially extended environments, with immediate consequences for questions of spatial population genetics in marine ecology, planktonic diversity and origin of life scenarios. Here, we review recent progress made in understanding this rich problem in the simplified setting of two competing genetic microbial strains subjected to fluid flows. As a pedagogical example we focus on antagonsim, i.e., two killer microorganism strains, each secreting toxins that impede the growth of their competitors (c…
Population dynamics and in particular microbial population dynamics, though they are complex but also intrinsically discrete and random, are conventionally represented as deterministic differential equations systems. We propose to revisit this approach by complementing these classic formalisms by stochastic formalisms and to explain the links between these representations in terms of mathematical analysis but also in terms of modeling and numerical simulations. We illustrate this approach on the model of chemostat.
Spatial models where growth is limited to the edge of the expansions have been instrumental to understand the population dynamics and the clone size distribution in growing cellular populations, such as microbial colonies and avascular tumours. A complete characterization of the coalescence process generated by spatial growth is still lacking, limiting our ability to apply classic population genetics inference to spatially growing populations. Here, we start filling this gap by investigating the statistical properties of the cell lineages generated by the two dimensional Eden model, leveraging…
Many microbial populations rapidly adapt to changing environments with multiple variants competing for survival. To quantify such complex evolutionary dynamics in vivo, time resolved and genome wide data including rare variants are essential. We performed whole-genome deep sequencing of HIV-1 populations in 9 untreated patients, with 6-12 longitudinal samples per patient spanning 5-8 years of infection. We show that patterns of minor diversity are reproducible between patients and mirror global HIV-1 diversity, suggesting a universal landscape of fitness costs that control diversity. Reversion…
We investigate the nature of genetic drift acting at the leading edge of range expansions, building on recent results in [Hallatschek et al., Proc.\ Natl.\ Acad.\ Sci., \textbf{104}(50): 19926 - 19930 (2007)]. A well mixed population of two fluorescently labeled microbial species is grown in a circular geometry. As the population expands, a coarsening process driven by genetic drift gives rise to sectoring patterns with fractal boundaries, which show a non-trivial asymptotic distribution. Using simplified lattice based Monte Carlo simulations as a generic caricature of the above experiment, we…
We study the stationary state of a population evolving under the action of random genetic drift, selection and recombination in which both deleterious and reverse beneficial mutations can occur. We find that the equilibrium fraction of deleterious mutations decreases as the population size is increased. We calculate exactly the steady state frequency in a nonrecombining population when population size is infinite and for a neutral finite population, and obtain bounds on the fraction of deleterious mutations. We also find that for small and very large populations, the number of deleterious muta…
Spatial constraints such as rigid barriers affect the dynamics of cell populations, potentially altering the course of natural evolution. In this paper, we investigate the population genetics of Escherichia coli proliferating in microchannels with open ends. Our analysis is based on a population model in which reproducing cells shift entire lanes of cells towards the open ends of the channel. The model predicts that diversity is lost very rapidly within lanes, but at a much slower pace among lanes. As a consequence, two mixed, neutral E. coli strains competing in a microchannel must organize i…
Here we present the first genome wide statistical test for recessive selection. This test uses explicitly non-equilibrium demographic differences between populations to infer the mode of selection. By analyzing the transient response to a population bottleneck and subsequent re-expansion, we qualitatively distinguish between alleles under additive and recessive selection. We analyze the response of the average number of deleterious mutations per haploid individual and describe time dependence of this quantity. We introduce a statistic, $B_R$, to compare the number of mutations in different pop…
Competition between random genetic drift and natural selection plays a central role in evolution: Whereas non-beneficial mutations often prevail in small populations by chance, mutations that sweep through large populations typically confer a selective advantage. Here, however, we observe chance effects during range expansions that dramatically alter the gene pool even in large microbial populations. Initially well-mixed populations of two fluorescently labeled strains of Escherichia coli develop well-defined, sector-like regions with fractal boundaries in expanding colonies. The formation of …
Deterministic evolutionary theory robustly predicts that populations displaying altruistic behaviours will be driven to extinction by mutant cheats that absorb common benefits but do not themselves contribute. Here we show that when demographic stochasticity is accounted for, selection can in fact act in the reverse direction to that predicted deterministically, instead favouring cooperative behaviors that appreciably increase the carrying capacity of the population. Populations that exist in larger numbers experience a selective advantage by being more stochastically robust to invasions than …
We present an individual-based model for two interacting populations diffusing on lattices in which a strong natural selection develops spontaneously. The models combine traditional local predator-prey dynamics with random walks. Individual's mobility is considered as an inherited trait. Small variations upon inheritance, mimicking mutations, provide variability on which natural selection may act. Although the dynamic rules defining the models do not explicitly favor any mobility values, we found that the average mobility of both populations tend to be maximized in various situations. In some …
It is widely accepted that population genetics theory is the cornerstone of evolutionary analyses. Empirical tests of the theory, however, are challenging because of the complex relationships between space, dispersal, and evolution. Critically, we lack quantitative validation of the spatial models of population genetics. Here we combine analytics, on and off-lattice simulations, and experiments with bacteria to perform quantitative tests of the theory. We study two bacterial species, the gut microbe Escherichia coli and the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and show that spatio-ge…
