Machine learning models are omnipresent for predictions on big data. One challenge of deployed models is the change of the data over time, a phenomenon called concept drift. If not handled correctly, a concept drift can lead to significant mispredictions. We explore a novel approach for concept drift handling, which depicts a strategy to switch between the application of simple and complex machine learning models for regression tasks. We assume that the approach plays out the individual strengths of each model, switching to the simpler model if a drift occurs and switching back to the complex model for typical situations. We instantiate the approach on a real-world data set of taxi demand in New York City, which is prone to multiple drifts, e.g. the weather phenomena of blizzards, resulting in a sudden decrease of taxi demand. We are able to show that our suggested approach outperforms all regarded baselines significantly.
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）
Predictive services nowadays play an important role across all business sectors. However, deployed machine learning models are challenged by changing data streams over time which is described as concept drift. Prediction quality of models can be largely influenced by this phenomenon. Therefore, concept drift is usually handled by retraining of the model. However, current research lacks a recommendation which data should be selected for the retraining of the machine learning model. Therefore, we systematically analyze different data selection strategies in this work. Subsequently, we instantiat…
In many real-world applications, data are often collected in the form of stream, and thus the distribution usually changes in nature, which is referred as concept drift in literature. We propose a novel and effective approach to handle concept drift via model reuse, leveraging previous knowledge by reusing models. Each model is associated with a weight representing its reusability towards current data, and the weight is adaptively adjusted according to the model performance. We provide generalization and regret analysis. Experimental results also validate the superiority of our approach on bot…
Classifiers operating in a dynamic, real world environment, are vulnerable to adversarial activity, which causes the data distribution to change over time. These changes are traditionally referred to as concept drift, and several approaches have been developed in literature to deal with the problem of drift handling and detection. However, most concept drift handling techniques, approach it as a domain independent task, to make them applicable to a wide gamut of reactive systems. These techniques were developed from an adversarial agnostic perspective, where they are naive and assume that drif…
Flight delays impose challenges that impact any flight transportation system. Predicting when they are going to occur is an important way to mitigate this issue. However, the behavior of the flight delay system varies through time. This phenomenon is known in predictive analytics as concept drift. This paper investigates the prediction performance of different drift handling strategies in aviation under different scales (models trained from flights related to a single airport or the entire flight system). Specifically, two research questions were proposed and answered: (i) How do drift handlin…
Machine learning models nowadays play a crucial role for many applications in business and industry. However, models only start adding value as soon as they are deployed into production. One challenge of deployed models is the effect of changing data over time, which is often described with the term concept drift. Due to their nature, concept drifts can severely affect the prediction performance of a machine learning system. In this work, we analyze the effects of concept drift in the context of a real-world data set. For efficient concept drift handling, we introduce the switching scheme whic…
The University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Honda Research Institute（本田研究所）
We analyze how the knowledge to autonomously handle one type of intersection, represented as a Deep Q-Network, translates to other types of intersections (tasks). We view intersection handling as a deep reinforcement learning problem, which approximates the state action Q function as a deep neural network. Using a traffic simulator, we show that directly copying a network trained for one type of intersection to another type of intersection decreases the success rate. We also show that when a network that is pre-trained on Task A and then is fine-tuned on a Task B, the resulting network not onl…
In big data era, the data continuously generated and its distribution may keep changes overtime. These challenges in online stream of data are known as concept drift. In this paper, we proposed the Adaptive Convolutional ELM method (ACNNELM) as enhancement of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a hybrid Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) model plus adaptive capability. This method is aimed for concept drift handling. We enhanced the CNN as convolutional hiererchical features representation learner combined with Elastic ELM (E$^2$LM) as a parallel supervised classifier. We propose an Adaptive O…
Energy Systems Institute SB RAS（俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院能源系统研究所）；Irkutsk State University（伊尔库茨克国立大学）；Queens University Belfast（贝尔法斯特女王大学）
Concept drift has potential in smart grid analysis because the socio-economic behaviour of consumers is not governed by the laws of physics. Likewise there are also applications in wind power forecasting. In this paper we present decision tree ensemble classification method based on the Random Forest algorithm for concept drift. The weighted majority voting ensemble aggregation rule is employed based on the ideas of Accuracy Weighted Ensemble (AWE) method. Base learner weight in our case is computed for each sample evaluation using base learners accuracy and intrinsic proximity measure of Rand…
Research in machine learning fairness has historically considered a single binary demographic attribute; however, the reality is of course far more complicated. In this work, we grapple with questions that arise along three stages of the machine learning pipeline when incorporating intersectionality as multiple demographic attributes: (1) which demographic attributes to include as dataset labels, (2) how to handle the progressively smaller size of subgroups during model training, and (3) how to move beyond existing evaluation metrics when benchmarking model fairness for more subgroups. For eac…
University of Trento（特伦托大学）；Jilin University（吉林大学）
We introduce and study knowledge drift (KD), a complex form of drift that occurs in hierarchical classification. Under KD the vocabulary of concepts, their individual distributions, and the is-a relations between them can all change over time. The main challenge is that, since the ground-truth concept hierarchy is unobserved, it is hard to tell apart different forms of KD. For instance, introducing a new is-a relation between two concepts might be confused with individual changes to those concepts, but it is far from equivalent. Failure to identify the right kind of KD compromises the concept …
University of Parma（帕尔马大学）；University of Bologna（博洛尼亚大学）；VisLab srl, an Ambarella Inc. company（VisLab 公司，安霸公司旗下企业）
Navigating through intersections is one of the main challenging tasks for an autonomous vehicle. However, for the majority of intersections regulated by traffic lights, the problem could be solved by a simple rule-based method in which the autonomous vehicle behavior is closely related to the traffic light states. In this work, we focus on the implementation of a system able to navigate through intersections where only traffic signs are provided. We propose a multi-agent system using a continuous, model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithm used to train a neural network for predicting bo…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Honda Research Institute（本田研究院）
We view intersection handling on autonomous vehicles as a reinforcement learning problem, and study its behavior in a transfer learning setting. We show that a network trained on one type of intersection generally is not able to generalize to other intersections. However, a network that is pre-trained on one intersection and fine-tuned on another performs better on the new task compared to training in isolation. This network also retains knowledge of the prior task, even though some forgetting occurs. Finally, we show that the benefits of fine-tuning hold when transferring simulated intersecti…
Concept drift refers to changes in the distribution of underlying data and is an inherent property of evolving data streams. Ensemble learning, with dynamic classifiers, has proved to be an efficient method of handling concept drift. However, the best way to create and maintain ensemble diversity with evolving streams is still a challenging problem. In contrast to estimating diversity via inputs, outputs, or classifier parameters, we propose a diversity measurement based on whether the ensemble members agree on the probability of a regional distribution change. In our method, estimations over …
Concept drift describes unforeseeable changes in the underlying distribution of streaming data over time. Concept drift research involves the development of methodologies and techniques for drift detection, understanding and adaptation. Data analysis has revealed that machine learning in a concept drift environment will result in poor learning results if the drift is not addressed. To help researchers identify which research topics are significant and how to apply related techniques in data analysis tasks, it is necessary that a high quality, instructive review of current research developments…
Machine learning (ML) is expected to play a major role in 5G edge computing. Various studies have demonstrated that ML is highly suitable for optimizing edge computing systems as rapid mobility and application-induced changes occur at the edge. For ML to provide the best solutions, it is important to continually train the ML models to include the changing scenarios. The sudden changes in data distributions caused by changing scenarios (e.g., 5G base station failures) is referred to as concept drift and is a major challenge to continual learning. The ML models can present high error rates while…
Screening feature selection methods are often used as a preprocessing step for reducing the number of variables before training step. Traditional screening methods only focus on dealing with complete high dimensional datasets. Modern datasets not only have higher dimension and larger sample size, but also have properties such as streaming input, sparsity and concept drift. Therefore a considerable number of online feature selection methods were introduced to handle these kind of problems in recent years. Online screening methods are one of the categories of online feature selection methods. Th…
The University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学）；University of Leicester（莱斯特大学）
As an emerging research topic, online class imbalance learning often combines the challenges of both class imbalance and concept drift. It deals with data streams having very skewed class distributions, where concept drift may occur. It has recently received increased research attention; however, very little work addresses the combined problem where both class imbalance and concept drift coexist. As the first systematic study of handling concept drift in class-imbalanced data streams, this paper first provides a comprehensive review of current research progress in this field, including current…
Nowadays with a growing number of online controlling systems in the organization and also a high demand of monitoring and stats facilities that uses data streams to log and control their subsystems, data stream mining becomes more and more vital. Hoeffding Trees (also called Very Fast Decision Trees a.k.a. VFDT) as a Big Data approach in dealing with the data stream for classification and regression problems showed good performance in handling facing challenges and making the possibility of any-time prediction. Although these methods outperform other methods e.g. Artificial Neural Networks (AN…
Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná（巴拉那天主教大学）；Instituto Federal do Paraná（巴拉那联邦学院）
Concept drift in process mining (PM) is a challenge as classical methods assume processes are in a steady-state, i.e., events share the same process version. We conducted a systematic literature review on the intersection of these areas, and thus, we review concept drift in process mining and bring forward a taxonomy of existing techniques for drift detection and online process mining for evolving environments. Existing works depict that (i) PM still primarily focuses on offline analysis, and (ii) the assessment of concept drift techniques in processes is cumbersome due to the lack of common e…
Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco（伯南布哥联邦大学信息中心）；School of Computer Science, University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学计算机学院）
Real-world applications have been dealing with large amounts of data that arrive over time and generally present changes in their underlying joint probability distribution, i.e., concept drift. Concept drift can be subdivided into two types: virtual drift, which affects the unconditional probability distribution p(x), and real drift, which affects the conditional probability distribution p(y|x). Existing works focuses on real drift. However, strategies to cope with real drift may not be the best suited for dealing with virtual drift, since the real class boundaries remain unchanged. We provide…
Predicting the expected value or number of post-click conversions (purchases or other events) is a key task in performance-based digital advertising. In training a conversion optimizer model, one of the most crucial aspects is handling delayed feedback with respect to conversions, which can happen multiple times with varying delay. This task is difficult, as the delay distribution is different for each advertiser, is long-tailed, often does not follow any particular class of parametric distributions, and can change over time. We tackle these challenges using an unbiased estimation model based …
Topological data analysis is becoming increasingly relevant to support the analysis of unstructured data sets. A common assumption in data analysis is that the data set is a sample---not necessarily a uniform one---of some high-dimensional manifold. In such cases, persistent homology can be successfully employed to extract features, remove noise, and compare data sets. The underlying problems in some application domains, however, turn out to represent multiple manifolds with different dimensions. Algebraic topology typically analyzes such problems using intersection homology, an extension of h…
Time Series Forecasting is at the core of many practical applications such as sales forecasting for business, rainfall forecasting for agriculture and many others. Though this problem has been extensively studied for years, it is still considered a challenging problem due to complex and evolving nature of time series data. Typical methods proposed for time series forecasting modeled linear or non-linear dependencies between data observations. However it is a generally accepted notion that no one method is universally effective for all kinds of time series data. Attempts have been made to use d…
A Neighbor-Searching Discrepancy-based Drift Detection Scheme for Learning Evolving Data
Australia Artificial Intelligence Institute (AAII)（澳大利亚人工智能研究所（AAII））；Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学工程与信息技术学院）
University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）；University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）
Reliable analysis of comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography - time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC$\times$GC-TOFMS) data is considered to be a major bottleneck for its widespread application. For multiple samples, GC$\times$GC-TOFMS data for specific chromatographic regions manifests as a 4th order tensor of I mass spectral acquisitions, J mass channels, K modulations, and L samples. Chromatographic drift is common along both the first-dimension (modulations), and along the second-dimension (mass spectral acquisitions), while drift along the mass channel and sample dimensions is for …
Federated learning (FL) involves multiple distributed devices jointly training a shared model without any of the participants having to reveal their local data to a centralized server. Most of previous FL approaches assume that data on devices are fixed and stationary during the training process. However, this assumption is unrealistic because these devices usually have varying sampling rates and different system configurations. In addition, the underlying distribution of the device data can change dynamically over time, which is known as concept drift. Concept drift makes the learning process…
First, Learn What You Don't Know: Active Information Gathering for Driving at the Limits of Handling
Toyota Research Institute（丰田研究院）；Department of Mechanical Engineering, Rice University（机械工程系， Rice大学）；MANE, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute（MANE，Rensselaer理工学院）
针对极限动态驾驶中在线学习滞后易致失控的问题，提出结合贝叶斯最后一层元学习与不确定性引导主动数据收集的车辆动力学辨识框架，并在 Toyota Supra 漂移实验中验证其可靠控制效果。
In this study, we present an incremental machine learning framework called Adaptive Decision Forest (ADF), which produces a decision forest to classify new records. Based on our two novel theorems, we introduce a new splitting strategy called iSAT, which allows ADF to classify new records even if they are associated with previously unseen classes. ADF is capable of identifying and handling concept drift; it, however, does not forget previously gained knowledge. Moreover, ADF is capable of handling big data if the data can be divided into batches. We evaluate ADF on five publicly available natu…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；IIT Bombay（印度理工学院孟买分校）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）
Given a stream of entries over time in a multi-dimensional data setting where concept drift is present, how can we detect anomalous activities? Most of the existing unsupervised anomaly detection approaches seek to detect anomalous events in an offline fashion and require a large amount of data for training. This is not practical in real-life scenarios where we receive the data in a streaming manner and do not know the size of the stream beforehand. Thus, we need a data-efficient method that can detect and adapt to changing data trends, or concept drift, in an online manner. In this work, we p…
UIUC（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；University of Vermont（佛蒙特大学）
Online anomaly detection from a data stream is critical for the safety and security of many applications but is facing severe challenges due to complex and evolving data streams from IoT devices and cloud-based infrastructures. Unfortunately, existing approaches fall too short for these challenges; online anomaly detection methods bear the burden of handling the complexity while offline deep anomaly detection methods suffer from the evolving data distribution. This paper presents a framework for online deep anomaly detection, ARCUS, which can be instantiated with any autoencoder-based deep ano…
FedSKC: Federated Learning with Non-IID Data via Structural Knowledge Collaboration
School of Computing and Information Technology, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia（1 计算与信息科技学院，沃林根大学，澳大利亚）；School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia（2 电气与计算机工程学院，悉尼大学，澳大利亚）；School of Cyber Engineering, Xidian University, Xi’an, China（3 网络工程学院，西安电子科技大学，中国）；QLD Alliance for Agriculture and Food, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia（4 女王艾丽丝州农业与食品联盟，昆士兰大学，澳大利亚）；Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO Data61, Eveleigh, Australia（5 主要研究员，CSIRO Data61，澳大利亚）
NAR-*ICP: Neural Execution of Classical ICP-based Pointcloud Registration Algorithms
Oxford Robotics Institute (ORI), University of Oxford, UK（牛津大学机器人研究所（ORI））；Bristol Robotics Laboratory (BRL), University of the West of England, UK（布里斯托尔机器人实验室（BRL））；Google DeepMind and the University of Cambridge, UK（谷歌DeepMind和剑桥大学）
