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arXiv 2003.01977q-fin.CPq-fin.PRq-fin.RM
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一种计算高维期权风险配置文件的深度学习方法

A deep learning approach for computations of exposure profiles for high-dimensional Bermudan options

Kristoffer Andersson, Cornelis Oosterlee

摘要:

在本文中,我们提出了一个基于神经网络的方法来近似的预期风险和潜在的未来风险的黄金期权。在第一阶段,该方法依赖于深度最优停时算法,该算法从潜在风险因素的蒙特卡罗样本中学习最优停时规则。现金流路径,然后通过应用学习停止策略的一组新的实现的风险因素。此外,在第二阶段的风险因素回归对现金流路径,以获得近似的路径期权价值。回归步骤进行普通最小二乘法以及神经网络,它表明,后者产生更准确的近似。制定的预期暴露,无论是在现金流路径和路径选项的价值方面,它表明,一个简单的蒙特卡洛平均产生准确的近似值在这两种情况下。通过经验$α$-百分位数估计潜在的未来暴露量。最后,它表明,预期的风险,以及潜在的未来风险可以计算下,风险中性测度,或现实世界的措施,而不必重新训练的神经网络。

英文摘要:

In this paper, we propose a neural network-based method for approximating expected exposures and potential future exposures of Bermudan options. In a first phase, the method relies on the Deep Optimal Stopping algorithm, which learns the optimal stopping rule from Monte-Carlo samples of the underlying risk factors. Cashflow-paths are then created by applying the learned stopping strategy on a new set of realizations of the risk factors. Furthermore, in a second phase the risk factors are regressed against the cashflow-paths to obtain approximations of pathwise option values. The regression step is carried out by ordinary least squares as well as neural networks, and it is shown that the latter produces more accurate approximations. The expected exposure is formulated, both in terms of the cashflow-paths and in terms of the pathwise option values and it is shown that a simple Monte-Carlo average yields accurate approximations in both cases. The potential future exposure is estimated by the empirical $α$-percentile. Finally, it is shown that the expected exposures, as well as the potential future exposures can be computed under either, the risk neutral measure, or the real world measure, without having to re-train the neural networks.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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