Gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT) is the leading algorithm for many commercial and academic data applications. We give a deep analysis of this algorithm, especially the histogram technique, which is a basis for the regulized distribution with compact support. We present three new modifications. 1) Share memory technique to reduce memory usage. In many cases, it only need the data source itself and no extra memory. 2) Implicit merging for "merge overflow problem"."merge overflow" means that merge some small datasets to huge datasets, which are too huge to be solved. By implicit merging, we just need the original small datasets to train the GBDT model. 3) Adaptive resize algorithm of histogram bins to improve accuracy. Experiments on two large Kaggle competitions verified our methods. They use much less memory than LightGBM and have higher accuracy. We have implemented these algorithms in an open-source package LiteMORT. The source codes are available at https://github.com/closest-git/LiteMORT
As an adaptive, interpretable, robust, and accurate meta-algorithm for arbitrary differentiable loss functions, gradient tree boosting is one of the most popular machine learning techniques, though the computational expensiveness severely limits its usage. Stochastic gradient boosting could be adopted to accelerates gradient boosting by uniformly sampling training instances, but its estimator could introduce a high variance. This situation arises motivation for us to optimize gradient tree boosting. We combine gradient tree boosting with importance sampling, which achieves better performance b…
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University（彼得大帝圣彼得堡理工大学）
The gradient boosting machine is a powerful ensemble-based machine learning method for solving regression problems. However, one of the difficulties of its using is a possible discontinuity of the regression function, which arises when regions of training data are not densely covered by training points. In order to overcome this difficulty and to reduce the computational complexity of the gradient boosting machine, we propose to apply the partially randomized trees which can be regarded as a special case of the extremely randomized trees applied to the gradient boosting. The gradient boosting …
Palaimon GmbH（Palaimon 有限公司）；Huawei Technologies Zurich Research Center（华为技术苏黎世研究中心）
This paper describes our winning solution for the ECML-PKDD ChAT Discovery Challenge 2020. We show that whether or not a Twitch user has subscribed to a channel can be well predicted by modeling user activity with boosting trees. We introduce the connection between target-encodings and boosting trees in the context of high cardinality categoricals and find that modeling user activity is more powerful then direct modeling of content when encoded properly and combined with a suitable optimization approach.
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；University of California, San Francisco（加利福尼亚大学旧金山分校）；University of Maryland Medical Center（马里兰大学医学中心）
Additive models, such as produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as classification and regression trees (CART), are widely used algorithms that have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models exist along a spectrum, revealing never-before-known connections between these two approaches. This paper introduces a novel technique called tree-structured boosting for creating a single decision tree, and shows that this method can produce models equivalent to CART or gradient boosted stumps at the extremes by varying a single parameter. Although tree-str…
Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts（卢塞恩应用科学与艺术大学）
We introduce a novel boosting algorithm called `KTBoost' which combines kernel boosting and tree boosting. In each boosting iteration, the algorithm adds either a regression tree or reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression function to the ensemble of base learners. Intuitively, the idea is that discontinuous trees and continuous RKHS regression functions complement each other, and that this combination allows for better learning of functions that have parts with varying degrees of regularity such as discontinuities and smooth parts. We empirically show that KTBoost significantly outp…
TF Boosted Trees (TFBT) is a new open-sourced frame-work for the distributed training of gradient boosted trees. It is based on TensorFlow, and its distinguishing features include a novel architecture, automatic loss differentiation, layer-by-layer boosting that results in smaller ensembles and faster prediction, principled multi-class handling, and a number of regularization techniques to prevent overfitting.
Credit scoring plays a vital role in the field of consumer finance. Survival analysis provides an advanced solution to the credit-scoring problem by quantifying the probability of survival time. In order to deal with highly heterogeneous industrial data collected in Chinese market of consumer finance, we propose a nonparametric ensemble tree model called gradient boosting survival tree (GBST) that extends the survival tree models with a gradient boosting algorithm. The survival tree ensemble is learned by minimizing the negative log-likelihood in an additive manner. The proposed model optimize…
Often machine learning methods are applied and results reported in cases where there is little to no information concerning accuracy of the output. Simply because a computer program returns a result does not insure its validity. If decisions are to be made based on such results it is important to have some notion of their veracity. Contrast trees represent a new approach for assessing the accuracy of many types of machine learning estimates that are not amenable to standard (cross) validation methods. In situations where inaccuracies are detected boosted contrast trees can often improve perfor…
Ricoh Institute of Information and Communication Technology（理光信息与通信技术研究所）；Ricoh Company（理光公司）
This study proposes a logic architecture for the high-speed and power efficiently training of a gradient boosting decision tree model of binary classification. We implemented the proposed logic architecture on an FPGA and compared training time and power efficiency with three general GBDT software libraries using CPU and GPU. The training speed of the logic architecture on the FPGA was 26-259 times faster than the software libraries. The power efficiency of the logic architecture was 90-1,104 times higher than the software libraries. The results show that the logic architecture suits for high-…
Gradient tree boosting is a prediction algorithm that sequentially produces a model in the form of linear combinations of decision trees, by solving an infinite-dimensional optimization problem. We combine gradient boosting and Nesterov's accelerated descent to design a new algorithm, which we call AGB (for Accelerated Gradient Boosting). Substantial numerical evidence is provided on both synthetic and real-life data sets to assess the excellent performance of the method in a large variety of prediction problems. It is empirically shown that AGB is much less sensitive to the shrinkage paramete…
Londrina State University（隆德里纳州立大学）；University of São Paulo（圣保罗大学）
As more data are produced each day, and faster, data stream mining is growing in importance, making clear the need for algorithms able to fast process these data. Data stream mining algorithms are meant to be solutions to extract knowledge online, specially tailored from continuous data problem. Many of the current algorithms for data stream mining have high processing and memory costs. Often, the higher the predictive performance, the higher these costs. To increase predictive performance without largely increasing memory and time costs, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, named Online L…
In many applications of supervised learning, multiple classification or regression outputs have to be predicted jointly. We consider several extensions of gradient boosting to address such problems. We first propose a straightforward adaptation of gradient boosting exploiting multiple output regression trees as base learners. We then argue that this method is only expected to be optimal when the outputs are fully correlated, as it forces the partitioning induced by the tree base learners to be shared by all outputs. We then propose a novel extension of gradient tree boosting to specifically ad…
Multi-layered representation is believed to be the key ingredient of deep neural networks especially in cognitive tasks like computer vision. While non-differentiable models such as gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs) are the dominant methods for modeling discrete or tabular data, they are hard to incorporate with such representation learning ability. In this work, we propose the multi-layered GBDT forest (mGBDTs), with an explicit emphasis on exploring the ability to learn hierarchical representations by stacking several layers of regression GBDTs as its building block. The model can be …
We present a theory of boosting probabilistic classifiers. We place ourselves in the situation of a user who only provides a stopping parameter and a probabilistic weak learner/classifier and compare three types of boosting algorithms: probabilistic Adaboost, decision tree, and tree of trees of ... of trees, which we call matryoshka. "Nested tree," "embedded tree" and "recursive tree" are also appropriate names for this algorithm, which is one of our contributions. Our other contribution is the theoretical analysis of the algorithms, in which we give training error bounds. This analysis sugges…
Tree boosting is a highly effective and widely used machine learning method. In this paper, we describe a scalable end-to-end tree boosting system called XGBoost, which is used widely by data scientists to achieve state-of-the-art results on many machine learning challenges. We propose a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning. More importantly, we provide insights on cache access patterns, data compression and sharding to build a scalable tree boosting system. By combining these insights, XGBoost scales beyond billions of examp…
Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles like random forests (Strobl, Malley, and Tutz, 2009) are a useful tool for finding structure, but are difficult to interpret with multiple outcome variables which are often of interest in psychology. To find and interpret structure in data sets with multiple outcomes and many predictors (possibly exceeding the sample size), we introduce a multivariate extension t…
Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology（工程与信息技术学院）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Suncorp Group Limited（Suncorp集团有限公司）
We show that Residual Networks (ResNet) is equivalent to boosting feature representation, without any modification to the underlying ResNet training algorithm. A regret bound based on Online Gradient Boosting theory is proved and suggests that ResNet could achieve Online Gradient Boosting regret bounds through neural network architectural changes with the addition of a shrinkage parameter in the identity skip-connections and using residual modules with max-norm bounds. Through this relation between ResNet and Online Boosting, novel feature representation boosting algorithms can be constructed …
Ant Financial Services Group（蚂蚁金融服务集团）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
Secure online transaction is an essential task for e-commerce platforms. Alipay, one of the world's leading cashless payment platform, provides the payment service to both merchants and individual customers. The fraud detection models are built to protect the customers, but stronger demands are raised by the new scenes, which are lacking in training data and labels. The proposed model makes a difference by utilizing the data under similar old scenes and the data under a new scene is treated as the target domain to be promoted. Inspired by this real case in Alipay, we view the problem as a tran…
Erasmus University Rotterdam（鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Migros T.A.Ş（Migros公司）
We propose two algorithms for interpretation and boosting of tree-based ensemble methods. Both algorithms make use of mathematical programming models that are constructed with a set of rules extracted from an ensemble of decision trees. The objective is to obtain the minimum total impurity with the least number of rules that cover all the samples. The first algorithm uses the collection of decision trees obtained from a trained random forest model. Our numerical results show that the proposed rule covering approach selects only a few rules that could be used for interpreting the random forest …
Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three calibration methods for correcting this distortion: Platt Scaling, Isotonic Regression, and Logistic Correction. We also experiment with boosting using log-loss instead of the usual exponential loss. Experiments show that Logistic Correction and boosting with log-loss work well when …
Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) are among the go-to algorithms on tabular data, which produce state of the art results in many prediction tasks. Despite its popularity, the GBM framework suffers from a fundamental flaw in its base learners. Specifically, most implementations utilize decision trees that are typically biased towards categorical variables with large cardinalities. The effect of this bias was extensively studied over the years, mostly in terms of predictive performance. In this work, we extend the scope and study the effect of biased base learners on GBM feature importance (FI) m…
Fair classification has become an important topic in machine learning research. While most bias mitigation strategies focus on neural networks, we noticed a lack of work on fair classifiers based on decision trees even though they have proven very efficient. In an up-to-date comparison of state-of-the-art classification algorithms in tabular data, tree boosting outperforms deep learning. For this reason, we have developed a novel approach of adversarial gradient tree boosting. The objective of the algorithm is to predict the output $Y$ with gradient tree boosting while minimizing the ability o…
CoreML Group Apple Inc.（苹果公司CoreML团队）；Department of Mathematics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学数学系）；Department of Statistics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学统计系）
Tree ensembles are flexible predictive models that can capture relevant variables and to some extent their interactions in a compact and interpretable manner. Most algorithms for obtaining tree ensembles are based on versions of boosting or Random Forest. Previous work showed that boosting algorithms exhibit a cyclic behavior of selecting the same tree again and again due to the way the loss is optimized. At the same time, Random Forest is not based on loss optimization and obtains a more complex and less interpretable model. In this paper we present a novel method for obtaining compact tree e…
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University（彼得大帝圣彼得堡理工大学）
A new attention-based model for the gradient boosting machine (GBM) called AGBoost (the attention-based gradient boosting) is proposed for solving regression problems. The main idea behind the proposed AGBoost model is to assign attention weights with trainable parameters to iterations of GBM under condition that decision trees are base learners in GBM. Attention weights are determined by applying properties of decision trees and by using the Huber's contamination model which provides an interesting linear dependence between trainable parameters of the attention and the attention weights. This…
Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts（卢塞恩应用科学与艺术大学）
Boosting algorithms are frequently used in applied data science and in research. To date, the distinction between boosting with either gradient descent or second-order Newton updates is often not made in both applied and methodological research, and it is thus implicitly assumed that the difference is irrelevant. The goal of this article is to clarify this situation. In particular, we present gradient and Newton boosting, as well as a hybrid variant of the two, in a unified framework. We compare these boosting algorithms with trees as base learners using various datasets and loss functions. Ou…
University of Liège（列日大学）；Aristotle University of Thessaloniki（塞萨洛尼基亚里士多德大学）；Katholieke Universiteit Leuven（鲁汶天主教大学）
Within machine learning, the supervised learning field aims at modeling the input-output relationship of a system, from past observations of its behavior. Decision trees characterize the input-output relationship through a series of nested $if-then-else$ questions, the testing nodes, leading to a set of predictions, the leaf nodes. Several of such trees are often combined together for state-of-the-art performance: random forest ensembles average the predictions of randomized decision trees trained independently in parallel, while tree boosting ensembles train decision trees sequentially to ref…
agtboost is an R package implementing fast gradient tree boosting computations in a manner similar to other established frameworks such as xgboost and LightGBM, but with significant decreases in computation time and required mathematical and technical knowledge. The package automatically takes care of split/no-split decisions and selects the number of trees in the gradient tree boosting ensemble, i.e., agtboost adapts the complexity of the ensemble automatically to the information in the data. All of this is done during a single training run, which is made possible by utilizing developments in…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)（里约热内卢天主教大学）；University of California, Irvine（加州大学尔湾分校）
In this paper, we introduce a new machine learning (ML) model for nonlinear regression called the Boosted Smooth Transition Regression Trees (BooST), which is a combination of boosting algorithms with smooth transition regression trees. The main advantage of the BooST model is the estimation of the derivatives (partial effects) of very general nonlinear models. Therefore, the model can provide more interpretation about the mapping between the covariates and the dependent variable than other tree-based models, such as Random Forests. We present several examples with both simulated and real data…
Gradient Regularized Newton Boosting Trees with Global Convergence
Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, UK（帝国理工学院伦敦数学系）；School of Computer Science, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland（圣加尔登大学计算机科学学院）；Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Sweden（斯德哥尔摩大学数学系）
Gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs) have seen widespread adoption in academia, industry and competitive data science due to their state-of-the-art performance in many machine learning tasks. One relative downside to these models is the large number of hyper-parameters that they expose to the end-user. To maximize the predictive power of GBDT models, one must either manually tune the hyper-parameters, or utilize automated techniques such as those based on Bayesian optimization. Both of these approaches are time-consuming since they involve repeatably training the model for different sets o…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；The University of Western Australia（西澳大学）
The Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) is a popular machine learning model for various tasks in recent years. In this paper, we study how to improve model accuracy of GBDT while preserving the strong guarantee of differential privacy. Sensitivity and privacy budget are two key design aspects for the effectiveness of differential private models. Existing solutions for GBDT with differential privacy suffer from the significant accuracy loss due to too loose sensitivity bounds and ineffective privacy budget allocations (especially across different trees in the GBDT model). Loose sensitivity b…
In this paper we introduce a significant improvement to the popular tree-based Stochastic Gradient Boosting algorithm using a wavelet decomposition of the trees. This approach is based on harmonic analysis and approximation theoretical elements, and as we show through extensive experimentation, our wavelet based method generally outperforms existing methods, particularly in difficult scenarios of class unbalance and mislabeling in the training data.
Time series data constitutes a distinct and growing problem in machine learning. As the corpus of time series data grows larger, deep models that simultaneously learn features and classify with these features can be intractable or suboptimal. In this paper, we present feature learning via long short term memory (LSTM) networks and prediction via gradient boosting trees (XGB). Focusing on the consequential setting of electronic health record data, we predict the occurrence of hypoxemia five minutes into the future based on past features. We make two observations: 1) long short term memory netwo…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；The University of Western Australia（西澳大利亚大学）
Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) have become very successful in recent years, with many awards in machine learning and data mining competitions. There have been several recent studies on how to train GBDTs in the federated learning setting. In this paper, we focus on horizontal federated learning, where data samples with the same features are distributed among multiple parties. However, existing studies are not efficient or effective enough for practical use. They suffer either from the inefficiency due to the usage of costly data transformations such as secret sharing and homomorphic …
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；Microsoft Bing Search（微软必应搜索）
This paper explores two classes of model adaptation methods for Web search ranking: Model Interpolation and error-driven learning approaches based on a boosting algorithm. The results show that model interpolation, though simple, achieves the best results on all the open test sets where the test data is very different from the training data. The tree-based boosting algorithm achieves the best performance on most of the closed test sets where the test data and the training data are similar, but its performance drops significantly on the open test sets due to the instability of trees. Several me…
Labs（8080实验室）；Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University（多特蒙德工业大学统计系）
The induction of additional randomness in parallel and sequential ensemble methods has proven to be worthwhile in many aspects. In this manuscript, we propose and examine a novel random tree depth injection approach suitable for sequential and parallel tree-based approaches including Boosting and Random Forests. The resulting methods are called \emph{Random Boost} and \emph{Random$^2$ Forest}. Both approaches serve as valuable extensions to the existing literature on the gradient boosting framework and random forests. A Monte Carlo simulation, in which tree-shaped data sets with different numb…
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences（交叉信息研究院）
Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) is a very successful ensemble learning algorithm widely used across a variety of applications. Recently, several variants of GBDT training algorithms and implementations have been designed and heavily optimized in some very popular open sourced toolkits including XGBoost, LightGBM and CatBoost. In this paper, we show that both the accuracy and efficiency of GBDT can be further enhanced by using more complex base learners. Specifically, we extend gradient boosting to use piecewise linear regression trees (PL Trees), instead of piecewise constant regression…
University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
In this paper, we present a novel massively parallel algorithm for accelerating the decision tree building procedure on GPUs (Graphics Processing Units), which is a crucial step in Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) and random forests training. Previous GPU based tree building algorithms are based on parallel multi-scan or radix sort to find the exact tree split, and thus suffer from scalability and performance issues. We show that using a histogram based algorithm to approximately find the best split is more efficient and scalable on GPU. By identifying the difference between classical GPU…
Gradient boosted decision trees are a popular machine learning technique, in part because of their ability to give good accuracy with small models. We describe two extensions to the standard tree boosting algorithm designed to increase this advantage. The first improvement extends the boosting formalism from scalar-valued trees to vector-valued trees. This allows individual trees to be used as multiclass classifiers, rather than requiring one tree per class, and drastically reduces the model size required for multiclass problems. We also show that some other popular vector-valued gradient boos…
The Chow-Liu algorithm (IEEE Trans.~Inform.~Theory, 1968) has been a mainstay for the learning of tree-structured graphical models from i.i.d.\ sampled data vectors. Its theoretical properties have been well-studied and are well-understood. In this paper, we focus on the class of trees that are arguably even more fundamental, namely {\em homogeneous} trees in which each pair of nodes that forms an edge has the same correlation $ρ$. We ask whether we are able to further reduce the error probability of learning the structure of the homogeneous tree model when {\em active learning} or {\em active…
Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté（勃艮第-弗朗什孔泰大学）；Laboratoire de Mathématiques de Besançon（贝桑松数学实验室）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）
We define infinitesimal gradient boosting as a limit of the popular tree-based gradient boosting algorithm from machine learning. The limit is considered in the vanishing-learning-rate asymptotic, that is when the learning rate tends to zero and the number of gradient trees is rescaled accordingly. For this purpose, we introduce a new class of randomized regression trees bridging totally randomized trees and Extra Trees and using a softmax distribution for binary splitting. Our main result is the convergence of the associated stochastic algorithm and the characterization of the limiting proced…
Southeast University（东南大学）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
A deep-learning-based hybrid strategy for short-term load forecasting is presented. The strategy proposes a novel tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB). Current strategies either ensemble submodels of a single type, which fail to take advantage of the statistical strengths of different inference models. Or they simply sum the outputs from completely different inference models, which doesn't maximize the potential of ensemble. Inspired by the bias-variance trade-off, WGTB is proposed and tailored to the great disparity among different inference models on accuracy, …
Binary Classification: Is Boosting stronger than Bagging?
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院运筹学中心）；Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院）
本文提出 Enhanced Random Forests，通过自适应样本权重与个性化树权重，在 15 个二分类数据集上以默认超参数达到或超过 XGBoost，并利用树重要性恢复部分可解释性。
Sinovation Ventures AI Institute（创新工场人工智能研究院）；Baiont Technology（百融科技）；Nanjing University（南京大学）
Gradient Boosting Machine has proven to be one successful function approximator and has been widely used in a variety of areas. However, since the training procedure of each base learner has to take the sequential order, it is infeasible to parallelize the training process among base learners for speed-up. In addition, under online or incremental learning settings, GBMs achieved sub-optimal performance due to the fact that the previously trained base learners can not adapt with the environment once trained. In this work, we propose the soft Gradient Boosting Machine (sGBM) by wiring multiple d…
Courant Institue of Mathematical Sciences, NYU（纽约大学库朗数学科学研究所）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；NVIDIA Corporation（英伟达公司）
We analyze the performance of the top-down multiclass classification algorithm for decision tree learning called LOMtree, recently proposed in the literature Choromanska and Langford (2014) for solving efficiently classification problems with very large number of classes. The algorithm online optimizes the objective function which simultaneously controls the depth of the tree and its statistical accuracy. We prove important properties of this objective and explore its connection to three well-known entropy-based decision tree objectives, i.e. Shannon entropy, Gini-entropy and its modified vers…
Machine learning classifiers often stumble over imbalanced datasets where classes are not equally represented. This inherent bias towards the majority class may result in low accuracy in labeling minority class. Imbalanced learning is prevalent in many real-world applications, such as medical research, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card transactions, etc. A good number of research works have been reported to tackle this challenging problem. For example, Synthetic Minority Over-sampling TEchnique (SMOTE) and ADAptive SYNthetic sampling approach (ADASYN) use oversamp…
DATA61|CSIRO（联邦科学与工业研究组织数据61所）；Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；University of Technology in Sydney（悉尼科技大学）
Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting the accident duration on arterial road networks in Sydney, based on operational requirements of incident clearance target which is less than 45 minutes. Using incident baseline information, we first deploy a classification method using various ensemble tree models in order to predi…
Despite the success of deep learning in computer vision and natural language processing, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) is yet one of the most powerful tools for applications with tabular data such as e-commerce and FinTech. However, applying GBDT to multi-task learning is still a challenge. Unlike deep models that can jointly learn a shared latent representation across multiple tasks, GBDT can hardly learn a shared tree structure. In this paper, we propose Multi-task Gradient Boosting Machine (MT-GBM), a GBDT-based method for multi-task learning. The MT-GBM can find the shared tree str…
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Ahold Delhaize（皇家阿霍德德尔海兹集团）
Understanding how "black-box" models arrive at their predictions has sparked significant interest from both within and outside the AI community. Our work focuses on doing this by generating local explanations about individual predictions for tree-based ensembles, specifically Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs). Given a correctly predicted instance in the training set, we wish to generate a counterfactual explanation for this instance, that is, the minimal perturbation of this instance such that the prediction flips to the opposite class. Most existing methods for counterfactual explanati…
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Catharina Hospital（卡特琳娜医院）
Current prognostic risk scores in cardiac surgery are based on statistics and do not yet benefit from machine learning. Statistical predictors are not robust enough to correctly identify patients who would benefit from Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI). This research aims to create a machine learning model to predict one-year mortality of a patient after TAVI. We adopt a modern gradient boosting on decision trees algorithm, specifically designed for categorical features. In combination with a recent technique for model interpretations, we developed a feature analysis and selection…
Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) are hugely popular for solving tabular data problems. However, practitioners are not only interested in point predictions, but also in probabilistic predictions in order to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions. Creating such probabilistic predictions is difficult with existing GBM-based solutions: they either require training multiple models or they become too computationally expensive to be useful for large-scale settings. We propose Probabilistic Gradient Boosting Machines (PGBM), a method to create probabilistic predictions with a single ensemble of d…
