Understanding how "black-box" models arrive at their predictions has sparked significant interest from both within and outside the AI community. Our work focuses on doing this by generating local explanations about individual predictions for tree-based ensembles, specifically Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs). Given a correctly predicted instance in the training set, we wish to generate a counterfactual explanation for this instance, that is, the minimal perturbation of this instance such that the prediction flips to the opposite class. Most existing methods for counterfactual explanations are (1) model-agnostic, so they do not take into account the structure of the original model, and/or (2) involve building a surrogate model on top of the original model, which is not guaranteed to represent the original model accurately. There exists a method specifically for random forests; we wish to extend this method for GBDTs. This involves accounting for (1) the sequential dependency between trees and (2) training on the negative gradients instead of the original labels.
Boosting is one of the most successful ideas in machine learning, achieving great practical performance with little fine-tuning. The success of boosted classifiers is most often attributed to improvements in margins. The focus on margin explanations was pioneered in the seminal work by Schapire et al. (1998) and has culminated in the $k$'th margin generalization bound by Gao and Zhou (2013), which was recently proved to be near-tight for some data distributions (Gronlund et al. 2019). In this work, we first demonstrate that the $k$'th margin bound is inadequate in explaining the performance of…
Isomorphic Functionalities between Ant Colony and Ensemble Learning: Part II-On the Strength of Weak Learnability and the Boosting Paradigm
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Rochester Institute of Technology（罗彻斯特理工学院数学与统计学院）；Gosnell School of Life Sciences, Rochester Institute of Technology（罗彻斯特理工学院戈斯内尔生命科学学院）；Center for Imaging Science, Rochester Institute of Technology（罗彻斯特理工学院成像科学中心）
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Apple Inc.（苹果公司）
There is a large literature explaining why AdaBoost is a successful classifier. The literature on AdaBoost focuses on classifier margins and boosting's interpretation as the optimization of an exponential likelihood function. These existing explanations, however, have been pointed out to be incomplete. A random forest is another popular ensemble method for which there is substantially less explanation in the literature. We introduce a novel perspective on AdaBoost and random forests that proposes that the two algorithms work for similar reasons. While both classifiers achieve similar predictiv…
CoreML Group Apple Inc.（苹果公司CoreML团队）；Department of Mathematics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学数学系）；Department of Statistics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学统计系）
Tree ensembles are flexible predictive models that can capture relevant variables and to some extent their interactions in a compact and interpretable manner. Most algorithms for obtaining tree ensembles are based on versions of boosting or Random Forest. Previous work showed that boosting algorithms exhibit a cyclic behavior of selecting the same tree again and again due to the way the loss is optimized. At the same time, Random Forest is not based on loss optimization and obtains a more complex and less interpretable model. In this paper we present a novel method for obtaining compact tree e…
Miami University（迈阿密大学）；University of Alabama（阿拉巴马大学）
Empirical evidence shows that ensembles, such as bagging, boosting, random and rotation forests, generally perform better in terms of their generalization error than individual classifiers. To explain this performance, Schapire et al. (1998) developed an upper bound on the generalization error of an ensemble based on the margins of the training data, from which it was concluded that larger margins should lead to lower generalization error, everything else being equal. Many other researchers have backed this assumption and presented tighter bounds on the generalization error based on either the…
We describe and analyze a new boosting algorithm for deep learning called SelfieBoost. Unlike other boosting algorithms, like AdaBoost, which construct ensembles of classifiers, SelfieBoost boosts the accuracy of a single network. We prove a $\log(1/ε)$ convergence rate for SelfieBoost under some "SGD success" assumption which seems to hold in practice.
Miami University（迈阿密大学）；University of Alabama（阿拉巴马大学）
Boosting and other ensemble methods combine a large number of weak classifiers through weighted voting to produce stronger predictive models. To explain the successful performance of boosting algorithms, Schapire et al. (1998) showed that AdaBoost is especially effective at increasing the margins of the training data. Schapire et al. (1998) also developed an upper bound on the generalization error of any ensemble based on the margins of the training data, from which it was concluded that larger margins should lead to lower generalization error, everything else being equal (sometimes referred t…
Erasmus University Rotterdam（鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Migros T.A.Ş（Migros公司）
We propose two algorithms for interpretation and boosting of tree-based ensemble methods. Both algorithms make use of mathematical programming models that are constructed with a set of rules extracted from an ensemble of decision trees. The objective is to obtain the minimum total impurity with the least number of rules that cover all the samples. The first algorithm uses the collection of decision trees obtained from a trained random forest model. Our numerical results show that the proposed rule covering approach selects only a few rules that could be used for interpreting the random forest …
Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts（卢塞恩应用科学与艺术大学）
We introduce a novel boosting algorithm called `KTBoost' which combines kernel boosting and tree boosting. In each boosting iteration, the algorithm adds either a regression tree or reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression function to the ensemble of base learners. Intuitively, the idea is that discontinuous trees and continuous RKHS regression functions complement each other, and that this combination allows for better learning of functions that have parts with varying degrees of regularity such as discontinuities and smooth parts. We empirically show that KTBoost significantly outp…
Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles like random forests (Strobl, Malley, and Tutz, 2009) are a useful tool for finding structure, but are difficult to interpret with multiple outcome variables which are often of interest in psychology. To find and interpret structure in data sets with multiple outcomes and many predictors (possibly exceeding the sample size), we introduce a multivariate extension t…
University of Liège（列日大学）；Aristotle University of Thessaloniki（塞萨洛尼基亚里士多德大学）；Katholieke Universiteit Leuven（鲁汶天主教大学）
Within machine learning, the supervised learning field aims at modeling the input-output relationship of a system, from past observations of its behavior. Decision trees characterize the input-output relationship through a series of nested $if-then-else$ questions, the testing nodes, leading to a set of predictions, the leaf nodes. Several of such trees are often combined together for state-of-the-art performance: random forest ensembles average the predictions of randomized decision trees trained independently in parallel, while tree boosting ensembles train decision trees sequentially to ref…
Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）；Shenzhen Huazhong University of Science and Technology Research Institute（深圳华中科技大学研究院）；Autonomous Intelligence Unmanned Systems Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education of China（教育部自主智能无人系统工程研究中心）；State Key Lab of Digital Manufacturing Equipment and Technology（数字制造装备与技术国家重点实验室）
Bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) and boosting are two popular ensemble learning approaches, which combine multiple base learners to generate a composite model for more accurate and more reliable performance. They have been widely used in biology, engineering, healthcare, etc. This paper proposes BoostForest, which is an ensemble learning approach using BoostTree as base learners and can be used for both classification and regression. BoostTree constructs a tree model by gradient boosting. It increases the randomness (diversity) by drawing the cut-points randomly at node splitting. BoostForest f…
Classifier evasion consists in finding for a given instance $x$ the nearest instance $x'$ such that the classifier predictions of $x$ and $x'$ are different. We present two novel algorithms for systematically computing evasions for tree ensembles such as boosted trees and random forests. Our first algorithm uses a Mixed Integer Linear Program solver and finds the optimal evading instance under an expressive set of constraints. Our second algorithm trades off optimality for speed by using symbolic prediction, a novel algorithm for fast finite differences on tree ensembles. On a digit recognitio…
Travel time is a crucial measure in transportation. Accurate travel time prediction is also fundamental for operation and advanced information systems. A variety of solutions exist for short-term travel time predictions such as solutions that utilize real-time GPS data and optimization methods to track the path of a vehicle. However, reliable long-term predictions remain challenging. We show in this paper the applicability and usefulness of travel time i.e. delivery time prediction for postal services. We investigate several methods such as linear regression models and tree based ensembles suc…
National Research University Higher School of Economics（国立研究型大学高等经济学院）
In machine learning ensemble methods have demonstrated high accuracy for the variety of problems in different areas. Two notable ensemble methods widely used in practice are gradient boosting and random forests. In this paper we present InfiniteBoost - a novel algorithm, which combines important properties of these two approaches. The algorithm constructs the ensemble of trees for which two properties hold: trees of the ensemble incorporate the mistakes done by others; at the same time the ensemble could contain the infinite number of trees without the over-fitting effect. The proposed algorit…
McGill University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics（麦吉尔大学数学与统计学系）；Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CNRS, LmB (UMR 6623)（玛丽·路易斯·帕斯特大学、法国国家科学研究中心、LmB（UMR 6623））
Binary Classification: Is Boosting stronger than Bagging?
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院运筹学中心）；Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院）
本文提出 Enhanced Random Forests，通过自适应样本权重与个性化树权重，在 15 个二分类数据集上以默认超参数达到或超过 XGBoost，并利用树重要性恢复部分可解释性。
Merging satellite products and ground-based measurements is often required for obtaining precipitation datasets that simultaneously cover large regions with high density and are more accurate than pure satellite precipitation products. Machine and statistical learning regression algorithms are regularly utilized in this endeavour. At the same time, tree-based ensemble algorithms are adopted in various fields for solving regression problems with high accuracy and low computational cost. Still, information on which tree-based ensemble algorithm to select for correcting satellite precipitation pr…
Yandex；HSE University（高等经济大学）；Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology（莫斯科物理技术学院）
For many practical, high-risk applications, it is essential to quantify uncertainty in a model's predictions to avoid costly mistakes. While predictive uncertainty is widely studied for neural networks, the topic seems to be under-explored for models based on gradient boosting. However, gradient boosting often achieves state-of-the-art results on tabular data. This work examines a probabilistic ensemble-based framework for deriving uncertainty estimates in the predictions of gradient boosting classification and regression models. We conducted experiments on a range of synthetic and real datase…
In this paper we examine the effect of applying ensemble learning to the performance of collaborative filtering methods. We present several systematic approaches for generating an ensemble of collaborative filtering models based on a single collaborative filtering algorithm (single-model or homogeneous ensemble). We present an adaptation of several popular ensemble techniques in machine learning for the collaborative filtering domain, including bagging, boosting, fusion and randomness injection. We evaluate the proposed approach on several types of collaborative filtering base models: k- NN, m…
In this paper, we propose a gradient boosting algorithm called \textit{adaptive boosting histogram transform} (\textit{ABHT}) for regression to illustrate the local adaptivity of gradient boosting algorithms in histogram transform ensemble learning. From the theoretical perspective, when the target function lies in a locally Hölder continuous space, we show that our ABHT can filter out the regions with different orders of smoothness. Consequently, we are able to prove that the upper bound of the convergence rates of ABHT is strictly smaller than the lower bound of \textit{parallel ensemble his…
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University（圣彼得堡彼得大帝理工大学）
The gradient boosting machine is one of the powerful tools for solving regression problems. In order to cope with its shortcomings, an approach for constructing ensembles of gradient boosting models is proposed. The main idea behind the approach is to use the stacking algorithm in order to learn a second-level meta-model which can be regarded as a model for implementing various ensembles of gradient boosting models. First, the linear regression of the gradient boosting models is considered as a simplest realization of the meta-model under condition that the linear model is differentiable with …
Label ranking is a prediction task which deals with learning a mapping between an instance and a ranking (i.e., order) of labels from a finite set, representing their relevance to the instance. Boosting is a well-known and reliable ensemble technique that was shown to often outperform other learning algorithms. While boosting algorithms were developed for a multitude of machine learning tasks, label ranking tasks were overlooked. In this paper, we propose a boosting algorithm which was specifically designed for label ranking tasks. Extensive evaluation of the proposed algorithm on 24 semi-synt…
George Mason University（乔治梅森大学）；Sapienza University of Rome（罗马第一大学）；University of L’Aquila（拉奎拉大学）
Autoencoders, as a dimensionality reduction technique, have been recently applied to outlier detection. However, neural networks are known to be vulnerable to overfitting, and therefore have limited potential in the unsupervised outlier detection setting. Current approaches to ensemble-based autoencoders do not generate a sufficient level of diversity to avoid the overfitting issue. To overcome the aforementioned limitations we develop a Boosting-based Autoencoder Ensemble approach (in short, BAE). BAE is an unsupervised ensemble method that, similarly to the boosting approach, builds an adapt…
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid（马德里自治大学）；Escuela Politécnica Superior（高等理工学院）
Vote-boosting is a sequential ensemble learning method in which the individual classifiers are built on different weighted versions of the training data. To build a new classifier, the weight of each training instance is determined in terms of the degree of disagreement among the current ensemble predictions for that instance. For low class-label noise levels, especially when simple base learners are used, emphasis should be made on instances for which the disagreement rate is high. When more flexible classifiers are used and as the noise level increases, the emphasis on these uncertain instan…
CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Inria Lille - Nord Europe（法国里尔-北欧数字科学研究所）
We propose a Gradient Boosting algorithm for learning an ensemble of kernel functions adapted to the task at hand. Unlike state-of-the-art Multiple Kernel Learning techniques that make use of a pre-computed dictionary of kernel functions to select from, at each iteration we fit a kernel by approximating it as a weighted sum of Random Fourier Features (RFF) and by optimizing their barycenter. This allows us to obtain a more versatile method, easier to setup and likely to have better performance. Our study builds on a recent result showing one can learn a kernel from RFF by computing the minimum…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics（亚瑟人口健康科学与信息学研究所）；NASA Ames Research Center（美国国家航空航天局艾姆斯研究中心）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
Probability estimates generated by boosting ensembles are poorly calibrated because of the margin maximization nature of the algorithm. The outputs of the ensemble need to be properly calibrated before they can be used as probability estimates. In this work, we demonstrate that online boosting is also prone to producing distorted probability estimates. In batch learning, calibration is achieved by reserving part of the training data for training the calibrator function. In the online setting, a decision needs to be made on each round: shall the new example(s) be used to update the parameters o…
Mila（米拉研究所）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
In the context of adversarial robustness, a single model does not usually have enough power to defend against all possible adversarial attacks, and as a result, has sub-optimal robustness. Consequently, an emerging line of work has focused on learning an ensemble of neural networks to defend against adversarial attacks. In this work, we take a principled approach towards building robust ensembles. We view this problem from the perspective of margin-boosting and develop an algorithm for learning an ensemble with maximum margin. Through extensive empirical evaluation on benchmark datasets, we sh…
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University（圣彼得堡彼得大帝理工大学）
A method for the local and global interpretation of a black-box model on the basis of the well-known generalized additive models is proposed. It can be viewed as an extension or a modification of the algorithm using the neural additive model. The method is based on using an ensemble of gradient boosting machines (GBMs) such that each GBM is learned on a single feature and produces a shape function of the feature. The ensemble is composed as a weighted sum of separate GBMs resulting a weighted sum of shape functions which form the generalized additive model. GBMs are built in parallel using ran…
Enhancing One-Shot Federated Learning Through Data and Ensemble Co-Boosting
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；Hong Kong Baptist University（香港浸会大学）；University of Maryland College Park（马里兰大学学院公园分校）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）
Acute Care Solutions (ACS)（急性护理解决方案（ACS））；Philips Research North America（飞利浦北美研究院）；Cardon Children’s Medical Center（卡顿儿童医疗中心）；Banner Health System（班纳健康系统）
Our work focuses on the problem of predicting the transfer of pediatric patients from the general ward of a hospital to the pediatric intensive care unit. Using data collected over 5.5 years from the electronic health records of two medical facilities, we develop classifiers based on adaptive boosting and gradient tree boosting. We further combine these learned classifiers into an ensemble model and compare its performance to a modified pediatric early warning score (PEWS) baseline that relies on expert defined guidelines. To gauge model generalizability, we perform an inter-facility evaluatio…
We introduce Generalized Integrated Gradients (GIG), a formal extension of the Integrated Gradients (IG) (Sundararajan et al., 2017) method for attributing credit to the input variables of a predictive model. GIG improves IG by explaining a broader variety of functions that arise from practical applications of ML in domains like financial services. GIG is constructed to overcome limitations of Shapley (1953) and Aumann-Shapley (1974), and has desirable properties when compared to other approaches. We prove GIG is the only correct method, under a small set of reasonable axioms, for providing ex…
Boosting Revisited: Benchmarking and Advancing LP-Based Ensemble Methods
Industrial Engineering and Management Science University of Twente（特文特大学工业工程与管理科学学院）；CIRRELT & SCALE-AI Chair in Data-Driven Supply Chains Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔大学数据驱动供应链联合主席）；LAAS-CNRS Université de Toulouse（图卢兹大学CNRS LAAS研究所）
This paper introduces Deep Incremental Boosting, a new technique derived from AdaBoost, specifically adapted to work with Deep Learning methods, that reduces the required training time and improves generalisation. We draw inspiration from Transfer of Learning approaches to reduce the start-up time to training each incremental Ensemble member. We show a set of experiments that outlines some preliminary results on some common Deep Learning datasets and discuss the potential improvements Deep Incremental Boosting brings to traditional Ensemble methods in Deep Learning.
University of Mumbai（孟买大学）；St. John College of Engineering and Management（圣约翰工程与管理学院）
Prognostication of medical problems using the clinical data by leveraging the Machine Learning techniques with stellar precision is one of the most important real world challenges at the present time. Considering the medical problem of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome also known as PCOS is an emerging problem in women aged from 15 to 49. Diagnosing this disorder by using various Boosting Ensemble Methods is something we have presented in this paper. A detailed and compendious differentiation between Adaptive Boost, Gradient Boosting Machine, XGBoost and CatBoost with their respective performance metr…
Rule ensembles are designed to provide a useful trade-off between predictive accuracy and model interpretability. However, the myopic and random search components of current rule ensemble methods can compromise this goal: they often need more rules than necessary to reach a certain accuracy level or can even outright fail to accurately model a distribution that can actually be described well with a few rules. Here, we present a novel approach aiming to fit rule ensembles of maximal predictive power for a given ensemble size (and thus model comprehensibility). In particular, we present an effic…
The neural network with $1$-Lipschitz property based on $\ell_\infty$-dist neuron has a theoretical guarantee in certified $\ell_\infty$ robustness. However, due to the inherent difficulties in the training of the network, the certified accuracy of previous work is limited. In this paper, we propose two approaches to deal with these difficuties. Aiming at the characteristics of the training process based on $\ell_\infty$-norm neural network, we introduce the EMA method to improve the training process. Considering the randomness of the training algorithm, we propose an ensemble method based on …
Southeast University（东南大学）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
A deep-learning-based hybrid strategy for short-term load forecasting is presented. The strategy proposes a novel tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB). Current strategies either ensemble submodels of a single type, which fail to take advantage of the statistical strengths of different inference models. Or they simply sum the outputs from completely different inference models, which doesn't maximize the potential of ensemble. Inspired by the bias-variance trade-off, WGTB is proposed and tailored to the great disparity among different inference models on accuracy, …
We propose a novel approach for using unsupervised boosting to create an ensemble of generative models, where models are trained in sequence to correct earlier mistakes. Our meta-algorithmic framework can leverage any existing base learner that permits likelihood evaluation, including recent deep expressive models. Further, our approach allows the ensemble to include discriminative models trained to distinguish real data from model-generated data. We show theoretical conditions under which incorporating a new model in the ensemble will improve the fit and empirically demonstrate the effectiven…
Class imbalance problem has been a challenging research problem in the fields of machine learning and data mining as most real life datasets are imbalanced. Several existing machine learning algorithms try to maximize the accuracy classification by correctly identifying majority class samples while ignoring the minority class. However, the concept of the minority class instances usually represents a higher interest than the majority class. Recently, several cost sensitive methods, ensemble models and sampling techniques have been used in literature in order to classify imbalance datasets. In t…
Australian Center for Visual Technologies（澳大利亚视觉技术中心）；School of Computer Science, The University of Adelaide（阿德莱德大学计算机科学学院）
Ensemble methods such as boosting combine multiple learners to obtain better prediction than could be obtained from any individual learner. Here we propose a principled framework for directly constructing ensemble learning methods from kernel methods. Unlike previous studies showing the equivalence between boosting and support vector machines (SVMs), which needs a translation procedure, we show that it is possible to design boosting-like procedure to solve the SVM optimization problems. In other words, it is possible to design ensemble methods directly from SVM without any middle procedure. Th…
In this paper we present CatBoost, a new open-sourced gradient boosting library that successfully handles categorical features and outperforms existing publicly available implementations of gradient boosting in terms of quality on a set of popular publicly available datasets. The library has a GPU implementation of learning algorithm and a CPU implementation of scoring algorithm, which are significantly faster than other gradient boosting libraries on ensembles of similar sizes.
University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）；Canadian VIGOUR Centre（加拿大活力中心）
The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is a commonly used tool for detecting cardiac abnormalities such as atrial fibrillation, blocks, and irregular complexes. For the PhysioNet/CinC 2020 Challenge, we built an algorithm using gradient boosted tree ensembles fitted on morphology and signal processing features to classify ECG diagnosis. For each lead, we derive features from heart rate variability, PQRST template shape, and the full signal waveform. We join the features of all 12 leads to fit an ensemble of gradient boosting decision trees to predict probabilities of ECG instances belonging to ea…
Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）
The black-box adversarial attack has attracted impressive attention for its practical use in the field of deep learning security. Meanwhile, it is very challenging as there is no access to the network architecture or internal weights of the target model. Based on the hypothesis that if an example remains adversarial for multiple models, then it is more likely to transfer the attack capability to other models, the ensemble-based adversarial attack methods are efficient and widely used for black-box attacks. However, ways of ensemble attack are rather less investigated, and existing ensemble att…
