We propose two algorithms for interpretation and boosting of tree-based ensemble methods. Both algorithms make use of mathematical programming models that are constructed with a set of rules extracted from an ensemble of decision trees. The objective is to obtain the minimum total impurity with the least number of rules that cover all the samples. The first algorithm uses the collection of decision trees obtained from a trained random forest model. Our numerical results show that the proposed rule covering approach selects only a few rules that could be used for interpreting the random forest model. Moreover, the resulting set of rules closely matches the accuracy level of the random forest model. Inspired by the column generation algorithm in linear programming, our second algorithm uses a rule generation scheme for boosting decision trees. We use the dual optimal solutions of the linear programming models as sample weights to obtain only those rules that would improve the accuracy. With a computational study, we observe that our second algorithm performs competitively with the other well-known boosting methods. Our implementations also demonstrate that both algorithms can be trivially coupled with the existing random forest and decision tree packages.
University of Huelva（韦尔瓦大学）；Complutense University of Madrid（马德里康普顿斯大学）
Most representative decision tree ensemble methods have been used to examine the variable importance of Treasury term spreads to predict US economic recessions with a balance of generating rules for US economic recession detection. A strategy is proposed for training the classifiers with Treasury term spreads data and the results are compared in order to select the best model for interpretability. We also discuss the use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework to understand US recession forecasts by analyzing feature importance. Consistently with the existing literature we find the m…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)（里约热内卢天主教大学）；University of California, Irvine（加州大学尔湾分校）
In this paper, we introduce a new machine learning (ML) model for nonlinear regression called the Boosted Smooth Transition Regression Trees (BooST), which is a combination of boosting algorithms with smooth transition regression trees. The main advantage of the BooST model is the estimation of the derivatives (partial effects) of very general nonlinear models. Therefore, the model can provide more interpretation about the mapping between the covariates and the dependent variable than other tree-based models, such as Random Forests. We present several examples with both simulated and real data…
Of Dice and Games: A Theory of Generalized Boosting
Universita degli Studi di Milano（米兰大学）；Institute for Advanced Study（高等研究院）；Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）；Tel Aviv University（特拉维夫大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Technion（以色列理工学院）；TU Wien（维也纳技术大学）
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Apple Inc.（苹果公司）
There is a large literature explaining why AdaBoost is a successful classifier. The literature on AdaBoost focuses on classifier margins and boosting's interpretation as the optimization of an exponential likelihood function. These existing explanations, however, have been pointed out to be incomplete. A random forest is another popular ensemble method for which there is substantially less explanation in the literature. We introduce a novel perspective on AdaBoost and random forests that proposes that the two algorithms work for similar reasons. While both classifiers achieve similar predictiv…
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University（圣彼得堡彼得大帝理工大学）
A method for the local and global interpretation of a black-box model on the basis of the well-known generalized additive models is proposed. It can be viewed as an extension or a modification of the algorithm using the neural additive model. The method is based on using an ensemble of gradient boosting machines (GBMs) such that each GBM is learned on a single feature and produces a shape function of the feature. The ensemble is composed as a weighted sum of separate GBMs resulting a weighted sum of shape functions which form the generalized additive model. GBMs are built in parallel using ran…
This paper compares the performances of three supervised machine learning algorithms in terms of predictive ability and model interpretation on structured or tabular data. The algorithms considered were scikit-learn implementations of extreme gradient boosting machines (XGB) and random forests (RFs), and feedforward neural networks (FFNNs) from TensorFlow. The paper is organized in a findings-based manner, with each section providing general conclusions supported by empirical results from simulation studies that cover a wide range of model complexity and correlation structures among predictors…
McGill University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics（麦吉尔大学数学与统计学系）；Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CNRS, LmB (UMR 6623)（玛丽·路易斯·帕斯特大学、法国国家科学研究中心、LmB（UMR 6623））
In practice, machine learning (ML) workflows require various different steps, from data preprocessing, missing value imputation, model selection, to model tuning as well as model evaluation. Many of these steps rely on human ML experts. AutoML - the field of automating these ML pipelines - tries to help practitioners to apply ML off-the-shelf without any expert knowledge. Most modern AutoML systems like auto-sklearn, H20-AutoML or TPOT aim for high predictive performance, thereby generating ensembles that consist almost exclusively of black-box models. This, in turn, makes the interpretation f…
Ant Financial Services Group（蚂蚁金融服务集团）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
A gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), which aggregates a collection of single weak learners (i.e. decision trees), is widely used for data mining tasks. Because GBDT inherits the good performance from its ensemble essence, much attention has been drawn to the optimization of this model. With its popularization, an increasing need for model interpretation arises. Besides the commonly used feature importance as a global interpretation, feature contribution is a local measure that reveals the relationship between a specific instance and the related output. This work focuses on the local inter…
National Technical University of Athens（雅典国家技术大学）；Hellenic Air Force（希腊空军）
Machine learning algorithms have been extensively exploited in energy research, due to their flexibility, automation and ability to handle big data. Among the most prominent machine learning algorithms are the boosting ones, which are known to be "garnering wisdom from a council of fools", thereby transforming weak learners to strong learners. Boosting algorithms are characterized by both high flexibility and high interpretability. The latter property is the result of recent developments by the statistical community. In this work, we provide understanding on the properties of boosting algorith…
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Catharina Hospital（卡特琳娜医院）
Current prognostic risk scores in cardiac surgery are based on statistics and do not yet benefit from machine learning. Statistical predictors are not robust enough to correctly identify patients who would benefit from Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI). This research aims to create a machine learning model to predict one-year mortality of a patient after TAVI. We adopt a modern gradient boosting on decision trees algorithm, specifically designed for categorical features. In combination with a recent technique for model interpretations, we developed a feature analysis and selection…
City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；Cainiao Network（菜鸟网络）
In this paper, we revisit Stochastic Continuous Submodular Maximization in both offline and online settings, which can benefit wide applications in machine learning and operations research areas. We present a boosting framework covering gradient ascent and online gradient ascent. The fundamental ingredient of our methods is a novel non-oblivious function $F$ derived from a factor-revealing optimization problem, whose any stationary point provides a $(1-e^{-γ})$-approximation to the global maximum of the $γ$-weakly DR-submodular objective function $f\in C^{1,1}_L(\mathcal{X})$. Under the offlin…
Sberbank AI Lab（俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行人工智能实验室）；Samsung AI Center in Moscow（三星莫斯科人工智能中心）；Stern School of Business, NYU（纽约大学斯特恩商学院）
We introduce a novel approach to feed-forward neural network interpretation based on partitioning the space of sequences of neuron activations. In line with this approach, we propose a model-specific interpretation method, called YASENN. Our method inherits many advantages of model-agnostic distillation, such as an ability to focus on the particular input region and to express an explanation in terms of features different from those observed by a neural network. Moreover, examination of distillation error makes the method applicable to the problems with low tolerance to interpretation mistakes…
XDeep is an open-source Python package developed to interpret deep models for both practitioners and researchers. Overall, XDeep takes a trained deep neural network (DNN) as the input, and generates relevant interpretations as the output with the post-hoc manner. From the functionality perspective, XDeep integrates a wide range of interpretation algorithms from the state-of-the-arts, covering different types of methodologies, and is capable of providing both local explanation and global explanation for DNN when interpreting model behaviours. With the well-documented API designed in XDeep, end-…
The prosperity of mobile and financial technologies has bred and expanded various kinds of financial products to a broader scope of people, which contributes to advocating financial inclusion. It has non-trivial social benefits of diminishing financial inequality. However, the technical challenges in individual financial risk evaluation caused by the distinct characteristic distribution and limited credit history of new users, as well as the inexperience of newly-entered companies in handling complex data and obtaining accurate labels, impede further promoting financial inclusion. To tackle th…
