Xiaofeng Xue, Yumeng Shen
In this paper, we are concerned with SIR epidemics in a random environment on complete graphs, where every edges are assigned with i.i.d. weights. Our main results give large and moderate deviation principles of sample paths of this model.
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This paper provides an additional probabilistic interpretation of the limiting functions for the SIR epidemic on the configuration model derived in the paper by Janson, Luczak and Windridge (2014).
We propose a class of random scale-free spatial networks with nested community structures and analyze Reed-Frost epidemics with community related independent transmissions. We show that the epidemic threshold may be trivial or not depending on the relation among community sizes, distribution of the number of communities and transmission rates
We consider evoSIR, a variant of the SIR model, on Erd\H os-Renyi random graphs in which susceptibles with an infected neighbor break that connection at rate $ρ$ and rewire to a randomly chosen individual. We compute the critical infection rate $λ_c$ and the probability of a large epidemic by showing that they are the same for the delSIR model in which $S-I$ connections are deleted instead of rewired. The final size of a large delSIR epidemic has a continuous transition. Simulations suggest that the final size of a large evoSIR epidemic is discontinuous at $λ_c$.
Spatial SIR epidemic model with varying infectivity in an unbounded domain: Law of Large Numbers
针对无界域内传染率随感染时长变化、传播非局部且个体不移动的空间SIR流行病模型，拓展已有有界域研究结论，证明了种群规模趋于无穷时的大数定律。
In this paper we consider SIR epidemics on random graphs with clustering. To incorporate group structure of the underlying social network, we use a generalized version of the configuration model in which each node is a member of a specified number of triangles. SIR epidemics on this type of graph have earlier been investigated under the assumption of homogeneous infectivity and also under the assumption of Poisson transmission and recovery rates. We extend known results from literature by relaxing the assumption of homogeneous infectivity. An important special case of the epidemic model analyz…
We study supercritical spatial SIR epidemics on $\mathbb{Z}^2\times \{1,2,\ldots, N\}$, where each site in $\mathbb{Z}^2$ represents a village and $N$ stands for the village size. We establish several key asymptotic results as $N\to\infty$. In particular, we derive the probability that the epidemic will last forever if the epidemic is started by one infected individual. Moreover, conditional on that the epidemic lasts forever, we show that the epidemic spreads out linearly in all directions and derive an explicit formula for the spreading speed. Furthermore, we prove that the ultimate proporti…
This note gives an exponential tail approximation for the extinction time of a subcritical multitype branching process arising from the SIR epidemic model on a random graph with given degrees, where the type corresponds to the vertex degree. As a corollary we obtain a Gumbel limit law for the extinction time, when beginning with a large population. Our contribution is to allow countably many types (this corresponds to unbounded degrees in the random graph epidemic model, as the number of vertices tends to infinity). We only require a second moment for the offspring-type distribution featuring …
Rescaled SIR epidemic processes converge to super-Brownian motion in four or more dimensions
本文证明在四维及以上空间中，通过选取与键渗流临界概率渐近一致的尺度参数，重标度SIR传染病过程收敛到带漂移的超布朗运动，完善了低维情形下的已有收敛结果。
A SIR epidemic model on a refining spatial grid II-Central limit theorem
针对考虑空间异质性的SIR流行病模型，借助泛函中心极限定理分析随机模型相对确定性模型的偏差，得到作为随机偏微分方程温和解的分布值Ornstein-Uhlenbeck高斯过程极限。
Spatial SIR epidemic model with varying infectivity without movement of individuals: Law of Large Numbers
针对个体无移动、传染率可变的空间SIR流行病模型，通过定义刻画状态演化与传染力的经验测度，证明了种群规模趋于无穷时对应测度的大数定律。
We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration of the entire epidemic, while we allow for non-exponential distributions of the infectious period and for both finite and infinite variance of the asymptotic degree distribution in the graph. Our analysis relies on the analysis of some subcritical continuous time branching processes and on ideas from first-passage percolation. As an application we investiga…
SIR epidemics in populations with large sub-communities
本文研究由大型子社区构成且内部传播强于跨社区传播的 SIR 流行病，通过社区内大规模疫情链近似传播过程，推导受感染个体数、受影响社区数及疫情严重程度的大数定律与中心极限型结果。
In this paper we are concerned with the SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed) epidemic on open clusters of bond percolation on the squared lattice. For the SIR model, a susceptible vertex is infected at rate proportional to the number of infective neighbors while an infective vertex becomes removed at a constant rate. A removed vertex will never be infected again. We assume that there is only one infective vertex at $t=0$ and define the critical value of the model as the maximum of the infection rates with which infective vertices die out with probability one, then we show that the critical valu…
The SIR epidemic on a dynamic Erdős-Rényi random graph
本文研究动态非齐次 Erdős-Rényi 随机图上的 SIR 流行病模型，建立了流行病曲线的函数大数定律，并证明其满足常微分方程组，在平均度恒定且边动态与感染过程同时间尺度时发现新的方程组，首次严格分析动态随机图上的大规模流行病过程。
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the movement of individuals in a population on the persistence or extinction of an endemic disease. In this paper we study a compartmental SIR stochastic epidemic model for a population that moves on $R^{d}$ following SDEs driven by independent Brownian motions. We define the sequences of empirical measures, which describe the evolution of the positions of the suscep…
Emergence of new diseases and elimination of existing diseases is a key public health issue. In mathematical models of epidemics, such phenomena involve the process of infections and recoveries passing through a critical threshold where the basic reproductive ratio is 1. In this paper, we study near-critical behaviour in the context of a susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random (multi)graph on $n$ vertices with a given degree sequence. We concentrate on the regime just above the threshold for the emergence of a large epidemic, where the basic reproductive ratio is $1 + ω(n) n…
We study the susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly subject to having given vertex degrees. In this model infective vertices infect each of their susceptible neighbours, and recover, at a constant rate. Suppose that initially there are only a few infective vertices. We prove there is a threshold for a parameter involving the rates and vertex degrees below which only a small number of infections occur. Above the threshold a large outbreak occurs with probability bounded away from zero. Our main result is that, conditional on a large outbreak, the evolu…
Reemergence of the Epidemic Threshold in SIRS Infections on Connected Stars
本文研究了SIRS模型在连接星形网络上的流行病阈值问题，发现即使在单个星形网络上SIRS过程不会超多项式地持续，但在由多项式大小的星形网络组成的网络中可以实现流行病行为，并展示了这种子结构在复杂网络模型中的出现，提供了流行病阈值的界。
This paper considers the classical SIR epidemic model driven by a multidimensional Lévy jump process. We consecrate to develop a mathematical method to obtain the asymptotic properties of the perturbed model. Our method differs from previous approaches by the use of the comparison theorem, mutually exclusive possibilities lemma, and some new techniques of the stochastic differential systems. In this framework, we derive the threshold which can determine the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution or the extinction of the epidemic. Numerical simulations about different perturbatio…
To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a possible quarantine of the infectious individuals. We provide an analytic description of this Markovian model and investigate its dynamics. Both a diffusion approximation and the basic reproduction number are derived. Through several simulations, we show how the evolution of a disease is affected by the distribution of the number of daily encounters and its dep…
SIR on locally converging dynamic random graphs
本文研究固定规模动态局部收敛随机图上的SIR疫情传播，证明其可近似为均匀顶点局部邻域内的传播，且疫情传播收敛于动态局部极限图上的传播，明确了结果成立所需的特定动态局部收敛形式。
We consider Markovian susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics on time-invariant weighted contact networks where the infection and removal processes are Poisson and where network links may be directed or undirected. We prove that a particular pair-based moment closure representation generates the expected infectious time series for networks with no cycles in the underlying graph. Moreover, this ``deterministic'' representation of the expected behaviour of a complex heterogeneous and finite Markovian system is straightforward to evaluate numerically.
Network-based analysis of stochastic SIR epidemic models with random and proportionate mixing
本文概述流行病渗流网络理论，并将其应用于分析无向接触网络及随机与比例混合下的随机SIR流行病模型，证明该理论能准确预测暴发规模与概率，并为封闭群体中的随机SIR模型分析提供通用框架。
We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only their neighbours in the graph during an infectious period which has an arbitrary but specified distribution. Central limit theorems for the final size (number of initial susceptibles that become infected) of such an epidemic as the population size $n$ tends to infinity, with explicit, easy to compute expressions for the asymptotic variance, are proved assuming that the degrees are bounded. The results are obtained for …
SIR Epidemics on Evolving Erdős-Rényi Graphs
本文研究与 SIR 动力学共同演化的 Erdős–Rényi 图，刻画 SIR-ω 模型最终感染规模发生不连续相变的充要条件，统一了既有两类不相匹配的判据。
Modelling the spread of two successive SIR epidemics on a configuration model network
本文针对配置模型网络上两次连续 SIR 流行病构建随机模型，结合键渗流与三类型分支过程，推导第二次疫情的大暴发阈值、概率及感染比例。
We study the spread of an SIRS-type epidemic with vaccination on network. Starting from an exact Markov description of the model, we investigate the mean epidemic lifetime by providing a sufficient condition for fast extinction that depends on the model parameters and the topology of the network. Then, we pass to consider a firstorder mean-field approximation of the exact model and its stability properties, by relying on the graph-theoretical notion of equitable partition. In the case of graphs possessing this kind of partition, we prove that the endemic equilibrium can be computed by using a …
We study the spread of stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemics in two types of structured populations, both consisting of schools and households. In each of the types, every individual is part of one school and one household. In the independent partition model, the partitions of the population into schools and households are independent of each other. This model corresponds to the well-studied household-workplace model. In the hierarchical model which we introduce here, members of the same household are also members of the same school. We introduce computable br…
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of suscpetibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.
On a stochastic epidemic SIR model with non homogenous population: a toy model for HIV
本文推广Tuckwell和Williams的同质SIR模型，引入高风险B组、感染期概率分布及B组直接康复机制，应用于HIV传播以分析风险行为、检测与PrEP类疗法的影响。
From Individual-Based Stochastic Epidemics to Heterogeneous SIR Equations
该研究构建了异质性SIR流行病模型的随机框架，证明了相关大数定律，所得极限涵盖常见SIR系统，为对应确定性模型提供统一概率基础。
A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours. An effective degree formulation of the model is used in conjunction with the theory of density dependent population processes to obtain a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for the epidemic as the population size $N \to \infty$, assuming that the degrees of individuals are bounded. A central limit theorem is conjectured for the fina…
Networks have become an important tool for infectious disease epidemiology. Most previous theoretical studies of transmission network models have either considered simple Markovian dynamics at the individual level, or have focused on the invasion threshold and final outcome of the epidemic. Here, we provide a general theory for early real-time behaviour of epidemics on large configuration model networks (i.e. static and locally unclustered), in particular focusing on the computation of the Malthusian parameter that describes the early exponential epidemic growth. Analytical, numerical and Mont…
Consider a Markovian SIR epidemic model in a homogeneous community. To this model we add a rate at which individuals are tested, and once an infectious individual tests positive it is isolated and each of their contacts are traced and tested independently with some fixed probability. If such a traced individual tests positive it is isolated, and the contact tracing is iterated. This model is analysed using large population approximations, both for the early stage of the epidemic when the "to-be-traced components" of the epidemic behaves like a branching process, and for the main stage of the e…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same time scale. Population transition intensities are assumed to be density-dependent with a constant component, the amplitude of which determines the overall scale of the population process. Standard branching approximation results for the epidemic process are first given, along with a numerical computation method for the probability of a major epidemic outbrea…
We consider a very general stochastic model for an SIR epidemic on a network which allows an individual's infectious period, and the time it takes to contact each of its neighbours after becoming infected, to be correlated. We write down the message passing system of equations for this model and prove, for the first time, that it has a unique feasible solution. We also generalise an earlier result by proving that this solution provides a rigorous upper bound for the expected epidemic size (cumulative number of infection events) at any fixed time $t>0$. We specialise these results to a homogene…
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