A competition process is a continuous time Markov chain that can be interpreted as a system of interacting birth-and-death processes, the components of which evolve subject to a competitive interaction. This paper is devoted to the study of the long-term behaviour of such a competition process, where a component of the process increases with a linear birth rate and decreases with a rate given by a linear function of other components. A zero is an absorbing state for each component, that is, when a component becomes zero, it stays zero forever (and we say that this component becomes extinct). We show that, with probability one, eventually only a random subset of non-interacting components of the process survives. A similar result also holds for the relevant generalized Polya urn model with removals.
For the plain Polya urn with two colors, black and white, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the number of white balls assuming that the initial number of black balls is large. Depending on the initial number of white balls, the limit is either a pure birth process or a diffusion. We also prove analogous results for the q-Polya urn, which is an urn where, when picking a ball, the balls of one color have priority over those of the other.
We consider a model of N two-colors urns in which the reinforcement of each urn depends also on the content of all the other urns. This interaction is of mean-field type and it is tuned by a parameter $α$ in [0,1]; in particular, for $α=0$ the N urns behave as N independent Polya's urns. As shown in [9], for $α>0$ urns synchronize, in the sense that the fraction of balls of a given color converges a.s. to the same (random) limit in all urns. In this paper we study fluctuations around this synchronized regime. The scaling of these fluctuations depends on the parameter $α$. In particular the sta…
Consider a generalized time-dependent Pólya urn process defined as follows. Let $d\in \mathbb{N}$ be the number of urns/colors. At each time $n$, we distribute $σ_n$ balls randomly to the $d$ urns, proportionally to $f$, where $f$ is a valid reinforcement function. We consider a general class of positive reinforcement functions $\mathcal{R}$ assuming some monotonicity and growth condition. The class $\mathcal{R}$ includes convex functions and the classical case $f(x)=x^α$, $α>1$. The novelty of the paper lies in extending stochastic approximation techniques to the $d$-dimensional case and prov…
We collect, survey and develop methods of (one-dimensional) stochastic approximation in a framework that seems suitable to handle fairly broad generalizations of Polya urns. To show the applicability of the results we determine the limiting fraction of balls in an urn with balls of two colors. We consider two models generalizing the Polya urn, in the first one ball is drawn and replaced with balls of (possibly) both colors according to which color was drawn. In the second, two balls are drawn simultaneously and replaced along with balls of (possibly) both colors according to what combination o…
We propose an approach to analyze the asymptotic behavior of Pólya urns based on the contraction method. For this, a new combinatorial discrete time embedding of the evolution of the urn into random rooted trees is developed. A decomposition of these trees leads to a system of recursive distributional equations which capture the distributions of the numbers of balls of each color. Ideas from the contraction method are used to study such systems of recursive distributional equations asymptotically. We apply our approach to a couple of concrete Pólya urns that lead to limit laws with normal limi…
Extension of results on generalized Pólya's urns for polynomially self-repelling walks
Baruch College（巴鲁克学院）；Institut de Recherche Mathématique Avancée, UMR 7501 Université de Strasbourg et CNRS（斯特拉斯堡大学与法国国家科学研究中心联合数学前沿研究所）；École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
Consider a Pólya urn with balls of several colours, where balls are drawn sequentially and each drawn ball immediately is replaced together with a fixed number of balls of the same colour. It is well-known that the proportions of balls of the different colours converge in distribution to a Dirichlet distribution. We show that the rate of convergence is $Θ(1/n)$ in the minimal $L_p$ metric for any $p\in[1,\infty]$, extending a result by Goldstein and Reinert; we further show the same rate for the Lévy distance, while the rate for the Kolmogorov distance depends on the parameters, i.e., on the i…
This paper is devoted to a direct martingale approach for P{ó}lya urn models asymptotic behaviour. A P{ó}lya process is said to be small when the ratio of its remplacement matrix eigenvalues is less than or equal to 1/2, otherwise it is called large. We find again some well-known results on the asymptotic behaviour for small and large urns processes. We also provide new almost sure properties for small urns processes.
We consider, as proposed and studied in Hofstad et.\ al.\ \cite{HHKR}, a class of graph-based "interacting urn"-type Polya urn model inspired by neuronal processing in the brain where a signal enters the brain at some (randomly) chosen neuron and is transmitted to a (random) single neighbouring neuron with a probability depending on the relative `efficiency' of the synapses connecting the neurons, and in doing so the efficiency of the utilized synapse is improved/reinforced. We study the structures (or architectures) and relative efficiency of the neuronal networks that can arise from repeatin…
We introduce a general two colour interacting urn model on a finite directed graph, where each urn at a node, reinforces all the urns in its out-neighbours according to a fixed, non-negative and balanced reinforcement matrix. We show that the fraction of balls of either colour converges almost surely to a deterministic limit if either the reinforcement is not of Pólya type or if the graph is such that every vertex with non-zero in-degree can be reached from some vertex with zero in-degree. We also obtain joint central limit theorems, with appropriate scaling, around the vector of limiting prop…
In this paper, we prove functional limit theorems for Pólya urn processes whose number of draws and initial number of balls tend to infinity together. This is motivated by recent work of Borovkov [5], where they prove a functional limit theorem for this model when the urn has identity replacement rule. We generalize this result to arbitrary balanced replacement rules (the total number of balls added to the urn is deterministic). Three asymptotic regimes are possible depending on how one lets the number of initial balls scale with the number of draws of the urn. In each regime, we show a first …
We introduce a class of reinforcement models where, at each time step $t$, one first chooses a random subset $A_t$ of colours (independent of the past) from $n$ colours of balls, and then chooses a colour $i$ from this subset with probability proportional to the number of balls of colour $i$ in the urn raised to the power $α>1$. We consider stability of equilibria for such models and establish the existence of phase transitions in a number of examples, including when the colours are the edges of a graph, a context which is a toy model for the formation and reinforcement of neural connections.
Consider a balanced non triangular two-color Pólya-Eggenberger urn process, assumed to be large which means that the ratio sigma of the replacement matrix eigenvalues satisfies 1/2<sigma <1. The composition vector of both discrete time and continuous time models admits a drift which is carried by the principal direction of the replacement matrix. In the second principal direction, this random vector admits also an almost sure asymptotics and a real-valued limit random variable arises, named WDT in discrete time and WCT in continous time. The paper deals with the distributions of both W. Appear…
We introduce a class of birth-and-death Polya urns, which allow for both sampling and removal of observations governed by an auxiliary inhomogeneous Bernoulli process, and investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the induced allelic partitions. By exploiting some embedded models, we show that the asymptotic regimes exhibit a phase transition from partitions with almost surely infinitely many blocks and independent counts, to stationary partitions with a random number of blocks. The first regime corresponds to limits of Ewens-type partitions and includes a result of Arratia, Barbour and Tavaré (…
This paper introduces and analyzes a particular class of Polya urns: balls are of two colors, can only be added (the urns are said to be additive) and at every step the same constant number of balls is added, thus only the color compositions varies (the urns are said to be balanced). These properties make this class of urns ideally suited for analysis from an "analytic combinatorics" point-of-view, following in the footsteps of Flajolet-Dumas-Puyhaubert, 2006. Through an algebraic generating function to which we apply a multiple coalescing saddle-point method, we are able to give precise asymp…
We propose an elementary but effective approach to studying a general class of Poissonized tenable and balanced urns on two colors. We characterize the asymptotic behavior of the process via a partial differential equation that governs the process, coupled with the method of moments applied in a bootstrapped manner. We show that the limiting distribution of the process underlying the Bagchi-Pal urn is gamma. We also look into the tenable and balanced processes associated with randomized replacement matrix. Similar results carry over to the process, with minor modifications in the methods of pr…
In two recent works, Kuba and Mahmoud (arXiv:1503.090691 and arXiv:1509.09053) introduced the family of two-color affine balanced Polya urn schemes with multiple drawings. We show that, in large-index urns (urn index between $1/2$ and $1$) and triangular urns, the martingale tail sum for the number of balls of a given color admits both a Gaussian central limit theorem as well as a law of the iterated logarithm. The laws of the iterated logarithm are new even in the standard model when only one ball is drawn from the urn in each step (except for the classical Polya urn model). Finally, we prove…
We consider a system of urns of Polya-type, with balls of two colors; the reinforcement of each urn depends both on the content of the same urn and on the average content of all urns. We show that the urns synchronize almost surely, in the sense that the fraction of balls of a given color converges almost surely, as the time goes to infinity, to the same limit for all urns. A normal approximation for a large number of urns is also obtained.
We study a new class of time inhomogeneous Pólya-type urn schemes and give optimal rates of convergence for the distribution of the properly scaled number of balls of a given color to nearly the full class of generalized gamma distributions with integer parameters, a class which includes the Rayleigh, half-normal and gamma distributions. Our main tool is Stein's method combined with characterizing the generalized gamma limiting distributions as fixed points of distributional transformations related to the equilibrium distributional transformation from renewal theory. We identify special cases …
We introduce a new model for contagion spread using a network of interacting finite memory two-color Pólya urns, which we refer to as the finite memory interacting Pólya contagion network. The urns interact in the sense that the probability of drawing a red ball (which represents an infection state) for a given urn, not only depends on the ratio of red balls in that urn but also on the ratio of red balls in the other urns in the network, hence accounting for the effect of spatial contagion. The resulting network-wide contagion process is a discrete-time finite-memory ($M$th order) Markov proce…
The models surveyed include generalized Pólya urns, reinforced random walks, interacting urn models, and continuous reinforced processes. Emphasis is on methods and results, with sketches provided of some proofs. Applications are discussed in statistics, biology, economics and a number of other areas.
The Pólya urn scheme is a discrete-time process concerning the addition and removal of colored balls. There is a known embedding of it in continuous-time, called the Pólya process. We deal with a generalization of this stochastic model, where the initial values and the entries of the transition matrix (corresponding to additions or removals) are not necessarily fixed integer values as in the standard Pólya process. In one of the scenarios, we even allow the entries of the matrix to be random variables. As a result, we no longer have a combinatorial model of "balls in an urn," but a broader int…
In [arXiv:1906.10951 (forthcoming on Advances in Applied Probability),arXiv:2011.05933 (published on PLOS ONE)] the authors introduce, study and apply a new variant of the Eggenberger-Polya urn, called the "Rescaled" Polya urn, which, for a suitable choice of the model parameters, is characterized by the following features: (i) a "local" reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last observations, (ii) a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean, and (iii) a long-term almost sure convergence of the empirical mean to a deterministic limit, together with a chi-…
We study a discrete-time Markov process $X_n\in\mathbb{R}^d$, for which the distribution of the future increments depends only on the relative ranking of its components (descending order by value). We endow the process with a rich-get-richer assumption and show that, together with a finite second moments assumption, it is enough to guarantee almost sure convergence of $X_n$ / $n$. We characterize the possible limits if one is free to choose the initial state, and give a condition under which the initial state is irrelevant. Finally, we show how our framework can account for ranking-based Pólya…
Consider a supercritical Crump--Mode--Jagers process such that all births are at integer times (the lattice case). Let $\widehatμ(z)$ be the generating function of the intensity of the offspring process, and consider the complex roots of $\widehatμ(z)=1$. The smallest (in absolute value) such root is $e^{-α}$, where $α>0$ is the Malthusian parameter; let $γ_*$ be the second smallest absolute value of a root. We show, assuming some technical conditions, that there are three cases: (i) if $γ_*>e^{-α/2}$, then the second-order fluctuations of the age distribution are asymptotically normal; (ii) i…
