天赋、视角、环境和运气对成功的贡献
Contributions of Talent, Perspective, Context and Luck to Success
摘要：
我们提出了一个控制模拟内的竞争性零和环境作为代理分解组件的成功。考虑到风险棋盘游戏的模拟，我们认为：（a）天赋是玩家使用的三种基于规则的策略之一;（b）背景是每一轮游戏的对手策略，目标和运气的设置;（c）视角是每个玩家的目标。当第一个玩家征服目标时，就获得了成功。我们模拟了10万次基于代理的模型运行，并分析了结果。模拟结果强烈表明，运气、天赋和环境都与成功有关。观点--作为定义成功的目标的描述--不是。因此，我们提出了一个定量的，可再现的环境中，我们能够显着分离的概念，再现以前的文献结果，并添加上下文和角度的参数。最后，我们还发现，模拟提供了有关弹性和机会的相关性的见解。
英文摘要：
We propose a controlled simulation within a competitive sum-zero environment as a proxy for disaggregating components of success. Given a simulation of the Risk board game, we consider (a) Talent to be one of three rule-based strategies used by players; (b) Context as the setting of each run of the game with opponents' strategies, goals and luck; and (c) Perspective as the objective of each player. Success is attained when a first player conquers its goal. We simulate 100,000 runs of an agent-based model and analyze the results. The simulation results strongly suggest that luck, talent and context are all relevant to determine success. Perspective -- as the description of the goal that defines success -- is not. As such, we present a quantitative, reproducible environment in which we are able to significantly separate the concepts, reproducing previous results of the literature and adding arguments for context and perspective. Finally, we also find that the simulation offers insights on the relevance of resilience and opportunity.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
