Dengue model with early-life stage of vectors and age-structure within host

An optimal control model of mosquito reduction management in a dengue endemic region

Aedes aegypti is known as the responsible vector transmitting dengue flavivirus. Unavailability of medication to cure the transmission of the virus in the human blood becomes a global health issue in recent decades. World epidemiologists are encouraged to focus on the investigation over the effective and inexpensive way to prevent dengue transmission, i.e. mosquito control. In this paper, we present a model depicting the dynamics of mosquito population based on indoor-outdoor life cycle classification. The basic mosquito offspring number was obtained and analysis of equilibria was shown. We br…

具有疫苗接种的年龄结构传染病模型与媒介传播

Age Structured Epidemic Model under Vaccination with Vector Transmission

本文研究疫苗接种对登革热长期动态的影响，通过年龄结构模型和疫苗接种时间分析，建立非线性稳态方程并探讨疫病平衡点的唯一性。

A model to predict the population size of the dengue fever vector based on rainfall data

According to the World Health Organization, dengue fever is the most important mosquito-borne disease of humans, and it is currently estimated that there may be 50 - 100 million yearly dengue infections worldwide. For the purpose to provide new techniques to public health policies in course, we introduce a predictive non-linear population dynamics model to describe the population size of four stages of the development of \emph{Aedes aegypti}, having the coefficients set to be dependent on the rainfall index data. In spite of the population dynamics of the \emph{Ae. aegypti} be mainly ruled by …

不同年龄组官方报告的虫媒感染病例分布

Age-dependent distribution of officially reported cases of vector-borne infections

本文提出分析虫媒感染病例年龄分布的新方法，发现Aedes传播疾病病例年龄分布与 outbreaks规模和地理位置无关，而其他媒介传播疾病则不同，揭示了媒介与宿主相互作用对年龄分布的影响。

一种预测宿主群体干预措施以降低媒介传播感染爆发规模效果的新方法

A New Method to Predict the Effect of an Intervention in the Host Population to Reduce the Magnitude of an Outbreak of a Vector-Borne Infection

提出新模型估计干预对媒介传播感染人类宿主的影响，以官方报告的年龄相关病例数为输入，利用感染病例比例年龄分布的特性，通过登革热疫苗模拟干预确定疫苗接种最优策略。

Why does women's fertility end in mid-life? Grandmothering and age at last birth

Great apes, the other living members of our hominid family, become decrepit before the age of forty and rarely outlive their fertile years. In contrast, women - even in high mortality hunter-gatherer populations - usually remain healthy and productive well beyond menopause. The grandmother hypothesis aims to account for the evolution of this distinctive feature of human life history. Our previous mathematical simulations of that hypothesis fixed the end of female fertility at the age of 45, based on the similarities among living hominids, and then modeled the evolution of human-like longevity …

Critical behavior of the contact process in a multiscale network

Inspired by dengue and yellow fever epidemics, we investigated the contact process (CP) in a multiscale network constituted by one-dimensional chains connected through a Barabási-Albert scale-free network. In addition to the CP dynamics inside the chains, the exchange of individuals between connected chains (travels) occurs at a constant rate. A finite epidemic threshold and an epidemic mean lifetime diverging exponentially in the subcritical phase, concomitantly with a power law divergence of the outbreak's duration, were found. A generalized scaling function involving both regular and SF com…

Should retirement age be coupled to life expectancy ?

Increasing every year the retirement age by the same amount as the increase of the life expectancy gives roughly stable ratios of the number of retired to working-age people in industrialized countries. Continuous influx of immigrants, below one percent per year of the total population, is needed for this stabilization.

Evolution of male life histories and age-dependent sexual signals under female choice

Sexual selection theory models evolution of sexual signals and preferences using simple life histories. However, life-history models predict that males benefit from increasing sexual investment approaching old age, producing age-dependent sexual traits. Age-dependent traits require time and energy to grow, and will not fully mature before individuals enter mating competition. Early evolutionary stages pose several problems for these traits. Age-dependent traits suffer from strong viability selection and gain little benefit from mate choice when rare. Few males will grow large traits, and they …

Another Way to Calculate Fitness from Life History Variables: Solution of the Age-Structured Logistic Equation

r-selection refers to evolutionary competition in the rate of a population's exponential increase. This is contrasted with K-selection, in which populations in steady-state compete in efficiency of resource conversion. Evolution in nature is thought to combine these two in various proportions. But in modeling the evolution of life histories, theorists have used r-selection exclusively; up until now, there has not been a practical algorithm for computing the target function of K-selection. The Malthusian parameter, as computed from the Euler-Lotka equation, is a quantitative rendering of the r …

Abundance Distributions in Artificial Life and Stochastic Models: "Age and Area" revisited

Using an artificial system of self-replicating strings, we show a correlation between the age of a genotype and its abundance that reflects a punctuated rather than gradual picture of evolution, as suggested long ago by Willis. In support of this correlation, we measure genotype abundance distributions and find universal coefficients. Finally, we propose a simple stochastic model which describes the dynamics of equilibrium periods and which correctly predicts most of the observed distributions.