AI 中文总结
提出新模型估计干预对媒介传播感染人类宿主的影响，以官方报告的年龄相关病例数为输入，利用感染病例比例年龄分布的特性，通过登革热疫苗模拟干预确定疫苗接种最优策略。
AI 中文摘要
在本文中，我们提出了一种新模型，用于估计干预措施对媒介传播感染（如登革热）人类宿主的影响，登革热每年会发生不同规模的爆发。该模型适用于这些爆发情况，实际上与爆发强度无关，即不需要稳态假设。模型以官方报告的媒介传播感染的年龄相关病例数为输入，是确定性的且不考虑随机性。我们的目标是估计干预措施的影响（效果），基于观察到的事实：由同一媒介传播的感染病例比例的年龄分布与传播强度和研究的地理区域无关，至少对于巴西地区如此。这一发现是计算基础。使用登革热疫苗模拟了一个假设干预，以确定疫苗接种运动的最优策略。
英文摘要
In this paper, we propose a new model to estimate the impact of an intervention on human hosts of a vector-borne infection, such as dengue, which occurs in yearly outbreaks of different magnitudes. The model applies to these outbreaks and, in fact, is independent of their intensity, that is, it does not require the steady-state assumption. The model takes as input the officially reported age-dependent number of cases of a vector-borne infection. It is deterministic and does not account for stochasticity. Our objective is to estimate the impact of the intervention (the efficacy), and we rely on the observed fact that the age distribution of the proportion of cases of the infections transmitted by the same vector is independent of both the intensity of transmission and the geographic area studied, at least for Brazilian regions. This finding is highlighted in the main text and forms the basis of our calculations. A hypothetical intervention is simulated using a dengue vaccine, which allows the determination of the optimal strategy for a vaccination campaign.
