登革热季节性和对湿度的非单调响应：2011年至2016年斯里兰卡发病率的模型数据分析
Dengue Seasonality and Non-Monotonic Response to Moisture: A Model-Data Analysis of Sri Lanka Incidence from 2011 to 2016
摘要：
登革热影响了整个热带地区的人口。登革热是由蚊子传播的黄病毒引起的，预计在未来的气候和发展情景下，其负担将增加。登革病毒的传播过程受到影响病媒生活周期〈动〉<动>和行为的水文气候条件的强烈调节。在这里，我们研究了降雨季节性和水分供应对斯里兰卡登革热病例报告的月度分布的影响。通过聚类分析，我们发现季节性降雨高峰与登革热发病率之间存在两个月的滞后关系。我们发现，水文驱动的流行病学模型（HYSIR），它考虑到水文记忆，除了传输过程的非线性动力学，捕捉降雨和登革热病例季节性高峰之间的两个月的滞后。我们的分析揭示了登革热病例对湿度的非单调依赖性，即随着湿度的增加而增加的病例随后是非常高水平的水供应的减少。登革热发病率季节性高峰预测的改进是由于传播率随季节变化对水供应的依赖性。
英文摘要：
Dengue fever impacts populations across the tropics. Dengue is caused by a mosquito transmitted flavivirus and its burden is projected to increase under future climate and development scenarios. The transmission process of dengue virus is strongly moderated by hydro-climatic conditions that impact the vector's life cycle and behavior. Here, we study the impact of rainfall seasonality and moisture availability on the monthly distribution of reported dengue cases in Sri Lanka. Through cluster analysis, we find an association between seasonal peaks of rainfall and dengue incidence with a two-month lag. We show that a hydrologically driven epidemiological model (HYSIR), which takes into account hydrologic memory in addition to the nonlinear dynamics of the transmission process, captures the two-month lag between rainfall and dengue cases seasonal peaks. Our analysis reveals a non-monotonic dependence of dengue cases on moisture, whereby an increase of cases with increasing moisture is followed by a reduction for very high levels of water availability. Improvement in prediction of the seasonal peaks in dengue incidence results from a seasonally varying dependence of transmission rate on water availability.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
