具有漂移参数的气候模式中的雪球地球转变
The Snowball Earth transition in a climate model with drifting parameters
摘要：
使用一个中等复杂度的气候模式（行星模拟器），我们调查所谓的雪球地球过渡。对于太阳常数的某些值，气候系统允许两种不同的稳定状态：一种是被冰雪覆盖的雪球地球，另一种是今天的气候。在我们的设置中，我们考虑的情况下，当气候系统从它的温暖的吸引子（我们今天经历的稳定的气候），太阳常数在有限的时间内不断减少，根据参数漂移的情况下，到一个状态，只有雪球地球的吸引子保持稳定。这导致了一个不可避免的过渡，或气候从温暖的气候倾斜。还讨论了反向跃迁。在单独的模拟中，将太阳常数增加到其原始值，我们发现系统停留在雪球状态。然而，使用集成方法，即，使用在初始条件上仅略有不同的气候实现的集合，我们表明从雪球地球到温暖气候的转变也是可能的，具有一定的概率。从动力系统理论的观点来看，我们可以说系统的快照吸引子在温暖气候的吸引子和雪球地球的吸引子之间分裂。
英文摘要：
Using an intermediate complexity climate model (Planet Simulator), we investigate the so-called Snowball Earth transition. For certain values of the solar constant, the climate system allows two different stable states: one of them is the Snowball Earth, covered by ice and snow, and the other one is today's climate. In our setup, we consider the case when the climate system starts from its warm attractor (the stable climate we experience today), and the solar constant is decreased continuously in finite time, according to a parameter drift scenario, to a state, where only the Snowball Earth's attractor remains stable. This induces an inevitable transition, or climate tipping from the warm climate. The reverse transition is also discussed. Increasing the solar constant back to its original value on individual simulations, we find that the system stays stuck in the Snowball state. However, using ensemble methods i.e., using an ensemble of climate realizations differing only slightly in their initial conditions we show that the transition from the Snowball Earth to the warm climate is also possible with a certain probability. From the point of view of dynamical systems theory, we can say that the system's snapshot attractor splits between the warm climate's and the Snowball Earth's attractor.
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