竞争性气候状态的稳健性
Robustness of competing climatic states
摘要:
气候是一个非平衡系统,它经历着强迫和耗散的持续作用。在太阳能的空间不均匀吸收的影响下,所有的气候成分动态地响应,直到达到近似的恒定状态(或吸引子)。然而,对于给定的强迫和相同的边界条件,多个恒定状态可以共存。在这里,我们应用热力学诊断工具(TheDiaTo)调查的统计特性的五个共存的气候,从雪球到一个无冰的aquaplanet,在MITgcm耦合模拟。其目的是探索气候模式设置的多稳定性,突出竞争的恒定状态和他们的特征签名的差异,关于热量和水团,洛伦兹能量循环和物质熵产生的纬向输送。我们还研究了当模型配置变化时,这些吸引子如何变化。我们认为,特别是,改变云计算的代表性的影响,并实施改进的关闭的能源预算。我们发现,即使动力学保持在同一吸引子上,状态变量也会被修改。TheDiaTo中的一组指标量化了这些修改,并代表了模型评估的宝贵工具。
英文摘要:
The climate is a non-equilibrium system undergoing the continuous action of forcing and dissipation. Under the effect of a spatially inhomogeneous absorption of solar energy, all the climate components dynamically respond until an approximate steady state (or attractor) is reached. However, multiple steady states can co-exist for a given forcing and with the same boundary conditions. Here, we apply the Thermodynamic Diagnostic Tool (TheDiaTo) to investigate the statistical properties of five co-existing climates, ranging from a snowball to an ice-free aquaplanet, obtained in MITgcm coupled simulations. The aim is to explore the multistability of the climate model setup by highlighting differences in competing steady states and their characteristic signatures regarding the meridional transport of heat and water mass, the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production. We also investigate how such attractors change when the model configuration is varied. We consider, in particular, the effect of changing the representation of the cloud albedo, and of implementing an improved closure of the energy budget. We find that, even if the dynamics remains on the same attractor, state variables are modified. The set of metrics in TheDiaTo quantifies such modifications and represents a valuable tool for model evaluation.
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