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arXiv 1807.04431math.STstat.MEstat.MLstat.TH
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Statistical Inference with Local Optima

Yen-Chi Chen

摘要:

我们研究了多模态似然函数的梯度上升方法的估计量的统计性质。我们推导了该估计量的目标种群数量,并研究了由渐近正态性和Bootstrap方法构造的置信区间的性质。特别是,我们分析了由于有限数量的随机初始化的覆盖不足。我们还通过反转似然比检验、得分检验和Wald检验来研究CI,并且我们表明所得CI可能非常不同。我们提出了一个两个样本的测试程序,即使当MLE是棘手的。此外,我们分析了随机初始化下的EM算法的性能,并推导出有限数量的初始化CI的覆盖范围。

英文摘要:

We study the statistical properties of an estimator derived by applying a gradient ascent method with multiple initializations to a multi-modal likelihood function. We derive the population quantity that is the target of this estimator and study the properties of confidence intervals (CIs) constructed from asymptotic normality and the bootstrap approach. In particular, we analyze the coverage deficiency due to finite number of random initializations. We also investigate the CIs by inverting the likelihood ratio test, the score test, and the Wald test, and we show that the resulting CIs may be very different. We propose a two-sample test procedure even when the MLE is intractable. In addition, we analyze the performance of the EM algorithm under random initializations and derive the coverage of a CI with a finite number of initializations.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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