Topological data analysis has emerged as a powerful tool for extracting the metric, geometric and topological features underlying the data as a multi-resolution summary statistic, and has found applications in several areas where data arises from complex sources. In this paper, we examine the use of topological summary statistics through the lens of statistical inference. We investigate necessary and sufficient conditions under which \textit{valid statistical inference} is possible using {topological summary statistics}. Additionally, we provide examples of models that demonstrate invariance with respect to topological summaries.
Laplace's method is used to approximate intractable integrals in a statistical problems. The relative error rate of the approximation is not worse than $O_p(n^{-1})$. We provide the first statistical lower bounds showing that the $n^{-1}$ rate is tight.
We study asymptotic behavior of conditional least squares estimators for critical continuous state and continuous time branching processes with immigration based on discrete time (low frequency) observations.
Statistical pragmatism embraces all efficient methods in statistical inference. Augmentation of the collected data is used herein to obtain representative population information from a large class of non-representative population's units. Parameter expansion of a probability model is shown to reduce the upper bound on the sum of error probabilities for a test of simple hypotheses, and a measure, R, is proposed for the effect of activating additional component(s) in the sufficient statistic.
We wholeheartedly congratulate Drs. Rohe and Zeng for their insightful paper \cite{rohe2020vintage} on vintage factor analysis with Varimax rotation. This note discusses the conditions to guarantee Varimax consistently recovers the subspace rotation.
Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and interrelates a number of new concepts for an extension of classical statistical inference to the quantum co…
We study statistical inference for small-noise-perturbed multiscale dynamical systems. We prove consistency, asymptotic normality, and convergence of all scaled moments of an appropriately-constructed maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a parameter of interest, identifying precisely its limiting variance. We allow full dependence of coefficients on both slow and fast processes, which take values in the full Euclidean space; coefficients in the equation for the slow process need not be bounded and there is no assumption of periodic dependence. The results provide a theoretical basis for cali…
We study asymptotic behavior of conditional least squares estimators for 2-type doubly symmetric critical irreducible continuous state and continuous time branching processes with immigration based on discrete time (low frequency) observations.
Statistical models and methods for determinantal point processes (DPPs) seem largely unexplored. We demonstrate that DPPs provide useful models for the description of spatial point pattern datasets where nearby points repel each other. Such data are usually modelled by Gibbs point processes, where the likelihood and moment expressions are intractable and simulations are time consuming. We exploit the appealing probabilistic properties of DPPs to develop parametric models, where the likelihood and moment expressions can be easily evaluated and realizations can be quickly simulated. We discuss h…
The topic of statistical inference for dynamical systems has been studied extensively across several fields. In this survey we focus on the problem of parameter estimation for non-linear dynamical systems. Our objective is to place results across distinct disciplines in a common setting and highlight opportunities for further research.
We investigate statistical inference across time scales. We take as toy model the estimation of the intensity of a discretely observed compound Poisson process with symmetric Bernoulli jumps. We have data at different time scales: microscopic, intermediate and macroscopic. We quantify the smooth statistical transition from a microscopic Poissonian regime to a macroscopic Gaussian regime. The classical quadratic variation estimator is efficient in both microscopic and macroscopic scales but surprisingly shows a substantial loss of information in the intermediate scale that can be explicitly rel…
We define a new topological summary for data that we call the persistence landscape. Since this summary lies in a vector space, it is easy to combine with tools from statistics and machine learning, in contrast to the standard topological summaries. Viewed as a random variable with values in a Banach space, this summary obeys a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem. We show how a number of standard statistical tests can be used for statistical inference using this summary. We also prove that this summary is stable and that it can be used to provide lower bounds for the bottle…
In this paper, we survey some recent results on statistical inference (parametric and nonparametric statistical estimation, hypotheses testing) about the spectrum of stationary models with tapered data, as well as, a question concerning robustness of inferences, carried out on a linear stationary process contaminated by a small trend. We also discuss some question concerning tapered Toeplitz matrices and operators, central limit theorems for tapered Toeplitz type quadratic functionals, and tapered Fejér-type kernels and singular integrals. These are the main tools for obtaining the correspondi…
This paper presents a selective survey of recent developments in statistical inference and multiple testing for high-dimensional regression models, including linear and logistic regression. We examine the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for various low-dimensional objectives such as regression coefficients and linear and quadratic functionals. The key technique is to generate debiased and desparsified estimators for the targeted low-dimensional objectives and estimate their uncertainty. In addition to covering the motivations for and intuitions behind these statistica…
Expectiles were introduced by Newey and Powell (1987) in the context of linear regression models. Recently, Bellini et al. (2014) revealed that expectiles can also be seen as reasonable law-invariant risk measures. In this article, we show that the corresponding statistical functionals are continuous w.r.t. the $1$-weak topology and suitably functionally differentiable. By means of these regularity results we can derive several properties as consistency, asymptotic normality, bootstrap consistency, and qualitative robustness of the corresponding estimators in nonparametric and parametric stati…
Statistical inference based on divergence measures have a long history. Recently, Maji, Ghosh and Basu (2014) have introduced a general family of divergences called the logarithmic super divergence (LSD) family. This family acts as a superfamily for both of the logarithmic power divergence (LPD) family (eg. Renyi, 1961) and the logarithmic density power divergence (LDPD)family introduced by Jones et al. (2001). In this paper we describe the asymptotic properties of the inference procedures resulting from this divergence in discrete models. The properties are well supported by real data example…
This is an invited contribution to the discussion on Professor Deborah Mayo's paper, "On the Birnbaum argument for the strong likelihood principle," to appear in Statistical Science. Mayo clearly demonstrates that statistical methods violating the likelihood principle need not violate either the sufficiency or conditionality principle, thus refuting Birnbaum's claim. With the constraints of Birnbaum's theorem lifted, we revisit the foundations of statistical inference, focusing on some new foundational principles, the inferential model framework, and connections with sufficiency and conditioni…
This paper is dedicated to the "50 Years of the Relevance Problem" - a long-neglected topic that begs attention from practical statisticians who are concerned with the problem of drawing inference from large-scale heterogeneous data.
In this article, we study the problem of parameter estimation for a discrete Ornstein - Uhlenbeck model driven by Poisson fractional noise. Based on random walk approximation for the noise, we study least squares and maximum likelihood estimators. Thus, asymptotic behaviours of the estimator is carried out, and a simulation study is shown to illustrate our results.
Function-on-function linear regression is important for understanding the relationship between the response and the predictor that are both functions. In this article, we propose a reproducing kernel Hilbert space approach to function-on-function linear regressionvia the penalised least square, regularized by the thin-plate spline smoothness penalty. The minimax optimal convergence rate of our estimator of the coefficient function is studied. We derive the Bahadur representation, which allows us to propose statistical inference methods using bootstrap and the convergence of Banach-valued rando…
Minimum divergence methods are popular tools in a variety of statistical applications. We consider tubular model adequacy tests, and demonstrate that the new divergences that are generated in the process are very useful in robust statistical inference. In particular we show that the family of $S$-divergences can be alternatively developed using the tubular model adequacy tests; a further application of the paradigm generates a larger superfamily of divergences. We describe the properties of this larger class and its potential applications in robust inference. Along the way, the failure of the …
This paper deals with the problem of inference associated with linear fractional diffusion process with random effects in the drift. In particular we are concerned with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the random effect parameters. First of all, we estimate the Hurst parameter H from one single subject. Second, assuming the Hurst index H is known, we derive the MLE and examine their asymptotic behavior as the number of subjects under study becomes large, with random effects normally distributed.
We consider stationary time series $\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each $h \geq 1$, conditionally on $X_0$ to exceed a threshold tending to infinity, the conditional distribution of $X_h$ suitably normalized converges weakly to a non degenerate distribution. We consider in this paper the estimation of the normalization and of the limiting distribution.
This paper considers distributed statistical inference for general symmetric statistics %that encompasses the U-statistics and the M-estimators in the context of massive data where the data can be stored at multiple platforms in different locations. In order to facilitate effective computation and to avoid expensive communication among different platforms, we formulate distributed statistics which can be conducted over smaller data blocks. The statistical properties of the distributed statistics are investigated in terms of the mean square error of estimation and asymptotic distributions with …
We consider adaptive estimation and statistical inference for high-dimensional graph-based linear models. In our model, the coordinates of regression coefficients correspond to an underlying undirected graph. Furthermore, the given graph governs the piecewise polynomial structure of the regression vector. In the adaptive estimation part, we apply graph-based regularization techniques and propose a family of locally adaptive estimators called the Graph-Piecewise-Polynomial-Lasso. We further study a one-step update of the Graph-Piecewise-Polynomial-Lasso for the problem of statistical inference.…
This document is the Part IV of the book 'Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference' edited by Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux. It is written by Catherine Larédo, with the contribution of Viet Chi Tran for the Chapter 4. Epidemic data present challenging statistical problems, starting from the recurrent issue of handling missing information. We review methods such as MCMC, ABC or methods based on diffusion approximations. Plan of this document: 1) Observations and Asymptotic Frameworks; 2) Inference for Markov Chain Epidemic Models; 3) Inference Based on the Diffusion Approximation of Epidemic…
In this paper, we propose a new statistical inference method for massive data sets, which is very simple and efficient by combining divide-and-conquer method and empirical likelihood. Compared with two popular methods (the bag of little bootstrap and the subsampled double bootstrap), we make full use of data sets, and reduce the computation burden. Extensive numerical studies and real data analysis demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed method. Furthermore, the asymptotic property of our method is derived.
A new model for time series with a specific oscillation pattern is proposed. The model consists of a hidden phase process controlling the speed of polling and a nonparametric curve characterizing the pattern, leading together to a generalized state space model. Identifiability of the model is proved and a method for statistical inference based on a particle smoother and a nonparametric EM algorithm is developed. In particular, the oscillation pattern and the unobserved phase process are estimated. The proposed algorithms are computationally efficient and their performance is assessed through s…
The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights（IBM T.J. Watson 研究中心，约克镇高地）
We present a novel method for frequentist statistical inference in $M$-estimation problems, based on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a fixed step size: we demonstrate that the average of such SGD sequences can be used for statistical inference, after proper scaling. An intuitive analysis using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process suggests that such averages are asymptotically normal. From a practical perspective, our SGD-based inference procedure is a first order method, and is well-suited for large scale problems. To show its merits, we apply it to both synthetic and real datasets, and demon…
Statistical inference may follow a frequentist approach or it may follow a Bayesian approach or it may use the minimum description length principle (MDL). Our goal is to identify situations in which these different approaches to statistical inference coincide. It is proved that for exponential families MDL and Bayesian inference coincide if and only if the renormalized saddle point approximation for the conjugated exponential family is exact. For 1-dimensional exponential families the only families with exact renormalized saddle point approximations are the Gaussian location family, the Gamma …
In this work we introduce the concept of Bures-Wasserstein barycenter $Q_*$, that is essentially a Fréchet mean of some distribution $\mathbb{P}$ supported on a subspace of positive semi-definite Hermitian operators $\mathbb{H}_{+}(d)$. We allow a barycenter to be restricted to some affine subspace of $\mathbb{H}_{+}(d)$ and provide conditions ensuring its existence and uniqueness. We also investigate convergence and concentration properties of an empirical counterpart of $Q_*$ in both Frobenius norm and Bures-Wasserstein distance, and explain, how obtained results are connected to optimal tra…
Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey
Institute for AI, Data Analysis and Systems (AIDAS)（人工智能、数据分析与系统研究所）；School of Engineering, Computing & Mathematics, Oxford Brookes University（工程、计算与数学学院，奥克斯伯里大学）
Integrated organic inference (IOI) is discussed in a concise and informal way with the aim that the reader is given the gist of what this approach to statistical inference is about as well as given pointers to further reading.
The aim of this work is to give an overview of the recent developments in the area of statistical inference for parabolic stochastic partial differential equations. Significant part of the paper is devoted to the spectral approach, which is the most studied sampling scheme under which the observations are done in the Fourier space over some finite time interval. We also discuss into details the practically important case of discrete sampling of the solution. Other relevant methodologies and some open problems are briefly discussed over the course of the manuscript.
The Wald development of statistical decision theory addresses decision making with sample data. Wald's concept of a statistical decision function (SDF) embraces all mappings of the form [data -> decision]. An SDF need not perform statistical inference; that is, it need not use data to draw conclusions about the true state of nature. Inference-based SDFs have the sequential form [data -> inference -> decision]. This paper motivates inference-based SDFs as practical procedures for decision making that may accomplish some of what Wald envisioned. The paper first addresses binary choice problems, …
Statistics has moved beyond the frequentist-Bayesian controversies of the past. Where does this leave our ability to interpret results? I suggest that a philosophy compatible with statistical practice, labeled here statistical pragmatism, serves as a foundation for inference. Statistical pragmatism is inclusive and emphasizes the assumptions that connect statistical models with observed data. I argue that introductory courses often mischaracterize the process of statistical inference and I propose an alternative "big picture" depiction.
Many mathematical models involve input parameters, which are not precisely known. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the parameters whose uncertainty has the largest impact on the variability of a quantity of interest (output of the model). One of the statistical tools used to quantify the influence of each input variable on the output is the Sobol sensitivity index. We consider the statistical estimation of this index from a finite sample of model outputs. We study asymptotic and non-asymptotic properties of two estimators of Sobol indices. These properties are applied to significan…
From the climate system to the effect of the internet on society, chaotic systems appear to have a significant role in our future. Here a method of statistical learning for a class of chaotic systems is described along with underlying theory that can be used not only for predicting those systems a short time ahead, but also as a basis for statistical inference about their dynamics. The method is applied to prediction of 3 different systems. The statistical inference aspect can be applied to explore and enhance computer models of such systems which in turn can provide feedback for even better p…
The University of Texas at Austin（得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Rice University（莱斯大学）
We present a novel statistical inference framework for convex empirical risk minimization, using approximate stochastic Newton steps. The proposed algorithm is based on the notion of finite differences and allows the approximation of a Hessian-vector product from first-order information. In theory, our method efficiently computes the statistical error covariance in $M$-estimation, both for unregularized convex learning problems and high-dimensional LASSO regression, without using exact second order information, or resampling the entire data set. We also present a stochastic gradient sampling s…
Nagoya Institute of Technology（名古屋工业大学）；RIKEN（日本理化学研究所）
In this paper, we study statistical inference of change-points (CPs) in multi-dimensional sequence. In CP detection from a multi-dimensional sequence, it is often desirable not only to detect the location, but also to identify the subset of the components in which the change occurs. Several algorithms have been proposed for such problems, but no valid exact inference method has been established to evaluate the statistical reliability of the detected locations and components. In this study, we propose a method that can guarantee the statistical reliability of both the location and the component…
