Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay, Kaijun Wang
This paper is dedicated to the "50 Years of the Relevance Problem" - a long-neglected topic that begs attention from practical statisticians who are concerned with the problem of drawing inference from large-scale heterogeneous data.
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In this paper, we propose a new statistical inference method for massive data sets, which is very simple and efficient by combining divide-and-conquer method and empirical likelihood. Compared with two popular methods (the bag of little bootstrap and the subsampled double bootstrap), we make full use of data sets, and reduce the computation burden. Extensive numerical studies and real data analysis demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed method. Furthermore, the asymptotic property of our method is derived.
Learning is a distinctive feature of intelligent behaviour. High-throughput experimental data and Big Data promise to open new windows on complex systems such as cells, the brain or our societies. Yet, the puzzling success of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning shows that we still have a poor conceptual understanding of learning. These applications push statistical inference into uncharted territories where data is high-dimensional and scarce, and prior information on "true" models is scant if not totally absent. Here we review recent progress on understanding learning, based on the n…
Statistical Inference in Tensor Completion: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical-to-Computational Gaps
本文针对张量补全的统计推断问题，提出结合初始估计、去偏与一步幂迭代的方法，证明其达到不确定性量化最优，探究了统计-计算鸿沟及初始化的影响，给出相变结论且模拟结果与理论一致。
This paper presents a selective survey of recent developments in statistical inference and multiple testing for high-dimensional regression models, including linear and logistic regression. We examine the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for various low-dimensional objectives such as regression coefficients and linear and quadratic functionals. The key technique is to generate debiased and desparsified estimators for the targeted low-dimensional objectives and estimate their uncertainty. In addition to covering the motivations for and intuitions behind these statistica…
Rejoinder to ``Equi-energy sampler with applications in statistical inference and statistical mechanics'' by Kou, Zhou and Wong [math.ST/0507080]
Minimum divergence methods are popular tools in a variety of statistical applications. We consider tubular model adequacy tests, and demonstrate that the new divergences that are generated in the process are very useful in robust statistical inference. In particular we show that the family of $S$-divergences can be alternatively developed using the tubular model adequacy tests; a further application of the paradigm generates a larger superfamily of divergences. We describe the properties of this larger class and its potential applications in robust inference. Along the way, the failure of the …
Online Statistical Inference for Stochastic Optimization via Kiefer-Wolfowitz Methods
本文研究随机优化参数的在线统计推断，分析随机搜索方向下 AKW 估计量的渐近分布及其效率与查询复杂度权衡，并给出两种置信区间构造方法。
On Statistical Inference for High-Dimensional Binary Time Series
本文提出了一种用于高维二元时间序列的后选择估计器及二阶野 Bootstrap 算法，以实现对系数矩阵的统计推断，并验证了其良好的有限样本性能。
We consider adaptive estimation and statistical inference for high-dimensional graph-based linear models. In our model, the coordinates of regression coefficients correspond to an underlying undirected graph. Furthermore, the given graph governs the piecewise polynomial structure of the regression vector. In the adaptive estimation part, we apply graph-based regularization techniques and propose a family of locally adaptive estimators called the Graph-Piecewise-Polynomial-Lasso. We further study a one-step update of the Graph-Piecewise-Polynomial-Lasso for the problem of statistical inference.…
Statistical Inference for High-Dimensional Robust Linear Regression Models via Recursive Online-Score Estimation
本文提出将递归在线得分估计（ROSE）框架扩展至非凸惩罚M估计，用于稳健高维线性回归的估计与推断，并证明估计量的一致性与渐近正态性，模拟和实际应用验证了其优越性。
Extended Fiducial Inference: Toward an Automated Process of Statistical Inference
本文提出扩展置信推断（EFI），结合随机梯度MCMC与稀疏深度神经网络，实现大数据下参数不确定性推断的自动化，并在参数估计和假设检验中优于传统方法。
Laplace's method is used to approximate intractable integrals in a statistical problems. The relative error rate of the approximation is not worse than $O_p(n^{-1})$. We provide the first statistical lower bounds showing that the $n^{-1}$ rate is tight.
Statistical pragmatism embraces all efficient methods in statistical inference. Augmentation of the collected data is used herein to obtain representative population information from a large class of non-representative population's units. Parameter expansion of a probability model is shown to reduce the upper bound on the sum of error probabilities for a test of simple hypotheses, and a measure, R, is proposed for the effect of activating additional component(s) in the sufficient statistic.
We wholeheartedly congratulate Drs. Rohe and Zeng for their insightful paper \cite{rohe2020vintage} on vintage factor analysis with Varimax rotation. This note discusses the conditions to guarantee Varimax consistently recovers the subspace rotation.
Statistical models and methods for determinantal point processes (DPPs) seem largely unexplored. We demonstrate that DPPs provide useful models for the description of spatial point pattern datasets where nearby points repel each other. Such data are usually modelled by Gibbs point processes, where the likelihood and moment expressions are intractable and simulations are time consuming. We exploit the appealing probabilistic properties of DPPs to develop parametric models, where the likelihood and moment expressions can be easily evaluated and realizations can be quickly simulated. We discuss h…
The topic of statistical inference for dynamical systems has been studied extensively across several fields. In this survey we focus on the problem of parameter estimation for non-linear dynamical systems. Our objective is to place results across distinct disciplines in a common setting and highlight opportunities for further research.
Statistical Inference for Fractional Diffusions
本文综述了由分数布朗运动驱动的随机微分方程的统计推断方法，分析了现有理论、挑战并提出新方法，探讨了分数扩散作为均质化极限的情况。
We investigate statistical inference across time scales. We take as toy model the estimation of the intensity of a discretely observed compound Poisson process with symmetric Bernoulli jumps. We have data at different time scales: microscopic, intermediate and macroscopic. We quantify the smooth statistical transition from a microscopic Poissonian regime to a macroscopic Gaussian regime. The classical quadratic variation estimator is efficient in both microscopic and macroscopic scales but surprisingly shows a substantial loss of information in the intermediate scale that can be explicitly rel…
We present a novel method for frequentist statistical inference in $M$-estimation problems, based on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a fixed step size: we demonstrate that the average of such SGD sequences can be used for statistical inference, after proper scaling. An intuitive analysis using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process suggests that such averages are asymptotically normal. From a practical perspective, our SGD-based inference procedure is a first order method, and is well-suited for large scale problems. To show its merits, we apply it to both synthetic and real datasets, and demon…
In this paper, we survey some recent results on statistical inference (parametric and nonparametric statistical estimation, hypotheses testing) about the spectrum of stationary models with tapered data, as well as, a question concerning robustness of inferences, carried out on a linear stationary process contaminated by a small trend. We also discuss some question concerning tapered Toeplitz matrices and operators, central limit theorems for tapered Toeplitz type quadratic functionals, and tapered Fejér-type kernels and singular integrals. These are the main tools for obtaining the correspondi…
Expectiles were introduced by Newey and Powell (1987) in the context of linear regression models. Recently, Bellini et al. (2014) revealed that expectiles can also be seen as reasonable law-invariant risk measures. In this article, we show that the corresponding statistical functionals are continuous w.r.t. the $1$-weak topology and suitably functionally differentiable. By means of these regularity results we can derive several properties as consistency, asymptotic normality, bootstrap consistency, and qualitative robustness of the corresponding estimators in nonparametric and parametric stati…
Statistical inference based on divergence measures have a long history. Recently, Maji, Ghosh and Basu (2014) have introduced a general family of divergences called the logarithmic super divergence (LSD) family. This family acts as a superfamily for both of the logarithmic power divergence (LPD) family (eg. Renyi, 1961) and the logarithmic density power divergence (LDPD)family introduced by Jones et al. (2001). In this paper we describe the asymptotic properties of the inference procedures resulting from this divergence in discrete models. The properties are well supported by real data example…
This is an invited contribution to the discussion on Professor Deborah Mayo's paper, "On the Birnbaum argument for the strong likelihood principle," to appear in Statistical Science. Mayo clearly demonstrates that statistical methods violating the likelihood principle need not violate either the sufficiency or conditionality principle, thus refuting Birnbaum's claim. With the constraints of Birnbaum's theorem lifted, we revisit the foundations of statistical inference, focusing on some new foundational principles, the inferential model framework, and connections with sufficiency and conditioni…
Integrated organic inference (IOI) is discussed in a concise and informal way with the aim that the reader is given the gist of what this approach to statistical inference is about as well as given pointers to further reading.
Rigidity theory in statistical inference
本文探讨了高斯模型最大似然阈值与刚性理论的关系。
Bridging Theory and Practice: Statistical Inference for Latent Space Models of Networks
本文提出统一框架，解决潜在空间模型统计推断中理论与实践的差距问题，通过放宽谱多重性约束和开发新适应性准则，提升最大似然估计的实用性与统计严谨性。
Parametric Statistical Inference in the Zone of Moderate Deviation Probabilities
本文在小偏差概率区发展了参数统计推断理论，通过Hellinger距离基于泰勒展开的对数似然比展开，证明了贝叶斯估计和最大似然估计的large deviation principle，并建立了后验贝叶斯测度的集中定理。
In this article, we study the problem of parameter estimation for a discrete Ornstein - Uhlenbeck model driven by Poisson fractional noise. Based on random walk approximation for the noise, we study least squares and maximum likelihood estimators. Thus, asymptotic behaviours of the estimator is carried out, and a simulation study is shown to illustrate our results.
Discussion of "Statistical Inference: The Big Picture" by R. E. Kass [arXiv:1106.2895]
Discussion of "Statistical Inference: The Big Picture" by R. E. Kass [arXiv:1106.2895]
Discussion of "Statistical Inference: The Big Picture" by R. E. Kass [arXiv:1106.2895]
Function-on-function linear regression is important for understanding the relationship between the response and the predictor that are both functions. In this article, we propose a reproducing kernel Hilbert space approach to function-on-function linear regressionvia the penalised least square, regularized by the thin-plate spline smoothness penalty. The minimax optimal convergence rate of our estimator of the coefficient function is studied. We derive the Bahadur representation, which allows us to propose statistical inference methods using bootstrap and the convergence of Banach-valued rando…
This paper deals with the problem of inference associated with linear fractional diffusion process with random effects in the drift. In particular we are concerned with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the random effect parameters. First of all, we estimate the Hurst parameter H from one single subject. Second, assuming the Hurst index H is known, we derive the MLE and examine their asymptotic behavior as the number of subjects under study becomes large, with random effects normally distributed.
Optimal Universal Quantum Encoding for Statistical Inference
该研究针对量子统计推断的经典数据编码问题，证明最大量子泄漏量是编码质量的通用衡量指标，得出纯态可实现最优通用编码、比特充足时基矢编码最优的结论，并提出了数值求解的迭代方法。
We consider stationary time series $\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each $h \geq 1$, conditionally on $X_0$ to exceed a threshold tending to infinity, the conditional distribution of $X_h$ suitably normalized converges weakly to a non degenerate distribution. We consider in this paper the estimation of the normalization and of the limiting distribution.
The Wald development of statistical decision theory addresses decision making with sample data. Wald's concept of a statistical decision function (SDF) embraces all mappings of the form [data -> decision]. An SDF need not perform statistical inference; that is, it need not use data to draw conclusions about the true state of nature. Inference-based SDFs have the sequential form [data -> inference -> decision]. This paper motivates inference-based SDFs as practical procedures for decision making that may accomplish some of what Wald envisioned. The paper first addresses binary choice problems, …
Statistics has moved beyond the frequentist-Bayesian controversies of the past. Where does this leave our ability to interpret results? I suggest that a philosophy compatible with statistical practice, labeled here statistical pragmatism, serves as a foundation for inference. Statistical pragmatism is inclusive and emphasizes the assumptions that connect statistical models with observed data. I argue that introductory courses often mischaracterize the process of statistical inference and I propose an alternative "big picture" depiction.
Discovering statistically significant patterns from databases is an important challenging problem. The main obstacle of this problem is in the difficulty of taking into account the selection bias, i.e., the bias arising from the fact that patterns are selected from extremely large number of candidates in databases. In this paper, we introduce a new approach for predictive pattern mining problems that can address the selection bias issue. Our approach is built on a recently popularized statistical inference framework called selective inference. In selective inference, statistical inferences (su…
On the Limits of Topological Data Analysis for Statistical Inference
本文从统计推断视角审视拓扑汇总统计量，研究了实现有效统计推断的充分必要条件，并提供了对拓扑汇总具有不变性的模型示例。
In this paper, we study statistical inference of change-points (CPs) in multi-dimensional sequence. In CP detection from a multi-dimensional sequence, it is often desirable not only to detect the location, but also to identify the subset of the components in which the change occurs. Several algorithms have been proposed for such problems, but no valid exact inference method has been established to evaluate the statistical reliability of the detected locations and components. In this study, we propose a method that can guarantee the statistical reliability of both the location and the component…
We present a novel statistical inference framework for convex empirical risk minimization, using approximate stochastic Newton steps. The proposed algorithm is based on the notion of finite differences and allows the approximation of a Hessian-vector product from first-order information. In theory, our method efficiently computes the statistical error covariance in $M$-estimation, both for unregularized convex learning problems and high-dimensional LASSO regression, without using exact second order information, or resampling the entire data set. We also present a stochastic gradient sampling s…
We consider a new method of the semiparametric statistical estimation for the continuous-time moving average Lévy processes. We derive the convergence rates of the proposed estimators, and show that these rates are optimal in the minimax sense.
This paper describes several applications in astronomy and cosmology that are addressed using probabilistic modelling and statistical inference.
Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and interrelates a number of new concepts for an extension of classical statistical inference to the quantum co…
A new model for time series with a specific oscillation pattern is proposed. The model consists of a hidden phase process controlling the speed of polling and a nonparametric curve characterizing the pattern, leading together to a generalized state space model. Identifiability of the model is proved and a method for statistical inference based on a particle smoother and a nonparametric EM algorithm is developed. In particular, the oscillation pattern and the unobserved phase process are estimated. The proposed algorithms are computationally efficient and their performance is assessed through s…
Introductory statistical inference texts and courses treat the point estimation, hypothesis testing, and interval estimation problems separately, with primary emphasis on large-sample approximations. Here I present an alternative approach to teaching this course, built around p-values, emphasizing provably valid inference for all sample sizes. Details about computation and marginalization are also provided, with several illustrative examples, along with a course outline.
Statistical inference may follow a frequentist approach or it may follow a Bayesian approach or it may use the minimum description length principle (MDL). Our goal is to identify situations in which these different approaches to statistical inference coincide. It is proved that for exponential families MDL and Bayesian inference coincide if and only if the renormalized saddle point approximation for the conjugated exponential family is exact. For 1-dimensional exponential families the only families with exact renormalized saddle point approximations are the Gaussian location family, the Gamma …
Spatio-temporal modelling is an increasingly popular topic in Statistics. Our paper contributes to this line of research by developing the theory, simulation and inference for a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We conduct detailed simulation studies and demonstrate the practical relevance of these processes in an empirical study of radiation anomaly data. Finally, we describe how predictions can be carried out in the Gaussian setting.
In this work we introduce the concept of Bures-Wasserstein barycenter $Q_*$, that is essentially a Fréchet mean of some distribution $\mathbb{P}$ supported on a subspace of positive semi-definite Hermitian operators $\mathbb{H}_{+}(d)$. We allow a barycenter to be restricted to some affine subspace of $\mathbb{H}_{+}(d)$ and provide conditions ensuring its existence and uniqueness. We also investigate convergence and concentration properties of an empirical counterpart of $Q_*$ in both Frobenius norm and Bures-Wasserstein distance, and explain, how obtained results are connected to optimal tra…
This paper introduces to readers the new concept and methodology of confidence distribution and the modern-day distributional inference in statistics. This discussion should be of interest to people who would like to go into the depth of the statistical inference methodology and to utilize distribution estimators in practice. We also include in the discussion the topic of generalized fiducial inference, a special type of modern distributional inference, and relate it to the concept of confidence distribution. Several real data examples are also provided for practitioners. We hope that the sele…
We study asymptotic behavior of conditional least squares estimators for critical continuous state and continuous time branching processes with immigration based on discrete time (low frequency) observations.
Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey
综述基于信念函数的统计推断方法，探讨如何从统计数据中学习信念测度，并总结该领域的主要贡献。
Retrospective Statistical Inference
本文提出一种新的回顾性统计推断范式，以观测数据的点估计为核心生成复制品分布，可用于非参数和参数回归，避免前瞻性有限维模型假设，为非参数函数估计提供替代不确定性量化方案。
In this paper, we study statistical inference for the Wasserstein distance, which has attracted much attention and has been applied to various machine learning tasks. Several studies have been proposed in the literature, but almost all of them are based on asymptotic approximation and do not have finite-sample validity. In this study, we propose an exact (non-asymptotic) inference method for the Wasserstein distance inspired by the concept of conditional Selective Inference (SI). To our knowledge, this is the first method that can provide a valid confidence interval (CI) for the Wasserstein di…
This paper introduces a local optimization-based approach to test statistical hypotheses and to construct confidence intervals. This approach can be viewed as an extension of bootstrap, and yields asymptotically valid tests and confidence intervals as long as there exist consistent estimators of unknown parameters. We present simple algorithms including a neighborhood bootstrap method to implement the approach. Several examples in which theoretical analysis is not easy are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
The aim of this work is to give an overview of the recent developments in the area of statistical inference for parabolic stochastic partial differential equations. Significant part of the paper is devoted to the spectral approach, which is the most studied sampling scheme under which the observations are done in the Fourier space over some finite time interval. We also discuss into details the practically important case of discrete sampling of the solution. Other relevant methodologies and some open problems are briefly discussed over the course of the manuscript.
We present a Communication-efficient Surrogate Likelihood (CSL) framework for solving distributed statistical inference problems. CSL provides a communication-efficient surrogate to the global likelihood that can be used for low-dimensional estimation, high-dimensional regularized estimation and Bayesian inference. For low-dimensional estimation, CSL provably improves upon naive averaging schemes and facilitates the construction of confidence intervals. For high-dimensional regularized estimation, CSL leads to a minimax-optimal estimator with controlled communication cost. For Bayesian inferen…
Analogy making as the basis of statistical inference
本文提出将类比作为统计推断的正式基础，构建通用框架，并应用于解决巴特利特和林德利悖论，提供原创处理方式。
Statistical Inference for Scale Mixture Models via Mellin Transform Approach
针对尺度混合模型，本文提出基于 Mellin–Stieltjes 变换、适用于离散与绝对连续混合分布的估计方法，并通过期望逐点误差分析及 Mellin 变换版 Berry–Esseen 不等式保证其推断性能。
In this paper, we establish the first and the second-order asymptotics of distributions of normalized maxima of independent and non-identically distributed bivariate Gaussian triangular arrays, where each vector of the $n$th row follows from a bivariate Gaussian distribution with correlation coefficient being a monotone continuous function of $i/n$. Furthermore, parametric inference for this unknown function is studied. Some simulation study and real data sets analysis are also presented.
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