This article is due to appear in the Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 43, Elsevier/North-Holland, Amsterdam, edited by Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao and C. R. Rao.
In modern day analytics, there is ever growing need to develop statistical models to study high dimensional data. Between dimension reduction, asymptotics-driven methods and random projection based methods, there are several approaches developed so far. For high dimensional parametric models, estimation and hypothesis testing for mean and covariance matrices have been extensively studied. However, practical implementation of these methods are fairly limited and are primarily restricted to researchers involved in high dimensional inference. With several applied fields such as genomics, metagenomics and social networking, high dimensional inference is a key component of big data analytics. In this chapter, a comprehensive overview of high dimensional inference and its applications in data analytics is provided. Key theoretical developments and computational tools are presented, giving readers an in-depth understanding of challenges in big data analysis.
This paper presents a selective survey of recent developments in statistical inference and multiple testing for high-dimensional regression models, including linear and logistic regression. We examine the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for various low-dimensional objectives such as regression coefficients and linear and quadratic functionals. The key technique is to generate debiased and desparsified estimators for the targeted low-dimensional objectives and estimate their uncertainty. In addition to covering the motivations for and intuitions behind these statistica…
Minimum divergence methods are popular tools in a variety of statistical applications. We consider tubular model adequacy tests, and demonstrate that the new divergences that are generated in the process are very useful in robust statistical inference. In particular we show that the family of $S$-divergences can be alternatively developed using the tubular model adequacy tests; a further application of the paradigm generates a larger superfamily of divergences. We describe the properties of this larger class and its potential applications in robust inference. Along the way, the failure of the …
We consider adaptive estimation and statistical inference for high-dimensional graph-based linear models. In our model, the coordinates of regression coefficients correspond to an underlying undirected graph. Furthermore, the given graph governs the piecewise polynomial structure of the regression vector. In the adaptive estimation part, we apply graph-based regularization techniques and propose a family of locally adaptive estimators called the Graph-Piecewise-Polynomial-Lasso. We further study a one-step update of the Graph-Piecewise-Polynomial-Lasso for the problem of statistical inference.…
This paper is dedicated to the "50 Years of the Relevance Problem" - a long-neglected topic that begs attention from practical statisticians who are concerned with the problem of drawing inference from large-scale heterogeneous data.
Existing frameworks for probabilistic inference assume the quantity of interest is the parameter of a posited statistical model. In machine learning applications, however, often there is no statistical model/parameter; the quantity of interest is a statistical functional, a feature of the underlying distribution. Model-based methods can only handle such problems indirectly, via marginalization from a model parameter to the real quantity of interest. Here we develop a generalized inferential model (IM) framework for direct probabilistic uncertainty quantification on the quantity of interest. In…
Laplace's method is used to approximate intractable integrals in a statistical problems. The relative error rate of the approximation is not worse than $O_p(n^{-1})$. We provide the first statistical lower bounds showing that the $n^{-1}$ rate is tight.
Doctors use statistics to advance medical knowledge; we use a medical analogy to introduce statistical inference "from scratch" and to highlight an improvement. Your doctor, perhaps implicitly, predicts the effectiveness of a treatment for you based on its performance in a clinical trial; the trial patients serve as controls for you. The same logic underpins statistical inference: to identify the best statistical procedure to use for a problem, we simulate a set of control problems and evaluate candidate procedures on the controls. Now for the improvement: recent interest in personalized/indiv…
Statistical pragmatism embraces all efficient methods in statistical inference. Augmentation of the collected data is used herein to obtain representative population information from a large class of non-representative population's units. Parameter expansion of a probability model is shown to reduce the upper bound on the sum of error probabilities for a test of simple hypotheses, and a measure, R, is proposed for the effect of activating additional component(s) in the sufficient statistic.
We wholeheartedly congratulate Drs. Rohe and Zeng for their insightful paper \cite{rohe2020vintage} on vintage factor analysis with Varimax rotation. This note discusses the conditions to guarantee Varimax consistently recovers the subspace rotation.
In this paper, we propose a new statistical inference method for massive data sets, which is very simple and efficient by combining divide-and-conquer method and empirical likelihood. Compared with two popular methods (the bag of little bootstrap and the subsampled double bootstrap), we make full use of data sets, and reduce the computation burden. Extensive numerical studies and real data analysis demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed method. Furthermore, the asymptotic property of our method is derived.
Statistical models and methods for determinantal point processes (DPPs) seem largely unexplored. We demonstrate that DPPs provide useful models for the description of spatial point pattern datasets where nearby points repel each other. Such data are usually modelled by Gibbs point processes, where the likelihood and moment expressions are intractable and simulations are time consuming. We exploit the appealing probabilistic properties of DPPs to develop parametric models, where the likelihood and moment expressions can be easily evaluated and realizations can be quickly simulated. We discuss h…
We investigate statistical inference across time scales. We take as toy model the estimation of the intensity of a discretely observed compound Poisson process with symmetric Bernoulli jumps. We have data at different time scales: microscopic, intermediate and macroscopic. We quantify the smooth statistical transition from a microscopic Poissonian regime to a macroscopic Gaussian regime. The classical quadratic variation estimator is efficient in both microscopic and macroscopic scales but surprisingly shows a substantial loss of information in the intermediate scale that can be explicitly rel…
The topic of statistical inference for dynamical systems has been studied extensively across several fields. In this survey we focus on the problem of parameter estimation for non-linear dynamical systems. Our objective is to place results across distinct disciplines in a common setting and highlight opportunities for further research.
In this paper, we survey some recent results on statistical inference (parametric and nonparametric statistical estimation, hypotheses testing) about the spectrum of stationary models with tapered data, as well as, a question concerning robustness of inferences, carried out on a linear stationary process contaminated by a small trend. We also discuss some question concerning tapered Toeplitz matrices and operators, central limit theorems for tapered Toeplitz type quadratic functionals, and tapered Fejér-type kernels and singular integrals. These are the main tools for obtaining the correspondi…
Expectiles were introduced by Newey and Powell (1987) in the context of linear regression models. Recently, Bellini et al. (2014) revealed that expectiles can also be seen as reasonable law-invariant risk measures. In this article, we show that the corresponding statistical functionals are continuous w.r.t. the $1$-weak topology and suitably functionally differentiable. By means of these regularity results we can derive several properties as consistency, asymptotic normality, bootstrap consistency, and qualitative robustness of the corresponding estimators in nonparametric and parametric stati…
Statistical inference based on divergence measures have a long history. Recently, Maji, Ghosh and Basu (2014) have introduced a general family of divergences called the logarithmic super divergence (LSD) family. This family acts as a superfamily for both of the logarithmic power divergence (LPD) family (eg. Renyi, 1961) and the logarithmic density power divergence (LDPD)family introduced by Jones et al. (2001). In this paper we describe the asymptotic properties of the inference procedures resulting from this divergence in discrete models. The properties are well supported by real data example…
This is an invited contribution to the discussion on Professor Deborah Mayo's paper, "On the Birnbaum argument for the strong likelihood principle," to appear in Statistical Science. Mayo clearly demonstrates that statistical methods violating the likelihood principle need not violate either the sufficiency or conditionality principle, thus refuting Birnbaum's claim. With the constraints of Birnbaum's theorem lifted, we revisit the foundations of statistical inference, focusing on some new foundational principles, the inferential model framework, and connections with sufficiency and conditioni…
Many mathematical models involve input parameters, which are not precisely known. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the parameters whose uncertainty has the largest impact on the variability of a quantity of interest (output of the model). One of the statistical tools used to quantify the influence of each input variable on the output is the Sobol sensitivity index. We consider the statistical estimation of this index from a finite sample of model outputs. We study asymptotic and non-asymptotic properties of two estimators of Sobol indices. These properties are applied to significan…
In this article, we study the problem of parameter estimation for a discrete Ornstein - Uhlenbeck model driven by Poisson fractional noise. Based on random walk approximation for the noise, we study least squares and maximum likelihood estimators. Thus, asymptotic behaviours of the estimator is carried out, and a simulation study is shown to illustrate our results.
Function-on-function linear regression is important for understanding the relationship between the response and the predictor that are both functions. In this article, we propose a reproducing kernel Hilbert space approach to function-on-function linear regressionvia the penalised least square, regularized by the thin-plate spline smoothness penalty. The minimax optimal convergence rate of our estimator of the coefficient function is studied. We derive the Bahadur representation, which allows us to propose statistical inference methods using bootstrap and the convergence of Banach-valued rando…
This paper deals with the problem of inference associated with linear fractional diffusion process with random effects in the drift. In particular we are concerned with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the random effect parameters. First of all, we estimate the Hurst parameter H from one single subject. Second, assuming the Hurst index H is known, we derive the MLE and examine their asymptotic behavior as the number of subjects under study becomes large, with random effects normally distributed.
Modern statistical inference tasks often require iterative optimization methods to compute the solution. Convergence analysis from an optimization viewpoint only informs us how well the solution is approximated numerically but overlooks the sampling nature of the data. In contrast, recognizing the randomness in the data, statisticians are keen to provide uncertainty quantification, or confidence, for the solution obtained using iterative optimization methods. This paper makes progress along this direction by introducing the moment-adjusted stochastic gradient descents, a new stochastic optimiz…
We consider stationary time series $\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each $h \geq 1$, conditionally on $X_0$ to exceed a threshold tending to infinity, the conditional distribution of $X_h$ suitably normalized converges weakly to a non degenerate distribution. We consider in this paper the estimation of the normalization and of the limiting distribution.
This paper considers distributed statistical inference for general symmetric statistics %that encompasses the U-statistics and the M-estimators in the context of massive data where the data can be stored at multiple platforms in different locations. In order to facilitate effective computation and to avoid expensive communication among different platforms, we formulate distributed statistics which can be conducted over smaller data blocks. The statistical properties of the distributed statistics are investigated in terms of the mean square error of estimation and asymptotic distributions with …
Integrated organic inference (IOI) is discussed in a concise and informal way with the aim that the reader is given the gist of what this approach to statistical inference is about as well as given pointers to further reading.
Estimating parameters of drift and diffusion coefficients for multidimensional stochastic delay equations with small noise are considered. The delay structure is written as an integral form with respect to a delay measure. Our contrast function is based on a local-Gauss approximation to the transition probability density of the process. We show consistency and asymptotic normality of the minimum-contrast estimator when the dispersion coefficient goes to zero and the sample size goes to infinity, simultaneously.
We consider the problems of confidence estimation and hypothesis testing on a parameter of signal observed in Gaussian white noise. For these problems we point out lower bounds of asymptotic efficiency in the zone of moderate deviation probabilities. These lower bounds are versions of local asymptotic minimax Hajek-Le Cam lower bound in estimation and the lower bound for Pitman efficiency in hypothesis testing. The lower bounds were obtained for both logarithmic and sharp asymptotic of moderate deviation probabilities.
While most of the convergence results in the literature on high dimensional covariance matrix are concerned about the accuracy of estimating the covariance matrix (and precision matrix), relatively less is known about the effect of estimating large covariances on statistical inferences. We study two important models: factor analysis and panel data model with interactive effects, and focus on the statistical inference and estimation efficiency of structural parameters based on large covariance estimators. For efficient estimation, both models call for a weighted principle components (WPC), whic…
We consider asymptotically exact inference on the leading canonical correlation directions and strengths between two high dimensional vectors under sparsity restrictions. In this regard, our main contribution is the development of a loss function, based on which, one can operationalize a one-step bias-correction on reasonable initial estimators. Our analytic results in this regard are adaptive over suitable structural restrictions of the high dimensional nuisance parameters, which, in this set-up, correspond to the covariance matrices of the variables of interest. We further supplement the the…
Statistical Inference for Gradient Boosting Regression
School of Economics, Fudan University（复旦大学经济学院）；Department of Statistics and Data Science, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院统计与数据科学系）
We consider a new method of the semiparametric statistical estimation for the continuous-time moving average Lévy processes. We derive the convergence rates of the proposed estimators, and show that these rates are optimal in the minimax sense.
The Wald development of statistical decision theory addresses decision making with sample data. Wald's concept of a statistical decision function (SDF) embraces all mappings of the form [data -> decision]. An SDF need not perform statistical inference; that is, it need not use data to draw conclusions about the true state of nature. Inference-based SDFs have the sequential form [data -> inference -> decision]. This paper motivates inference-based SDFs as practical procedures for decision making that may accomplish some of what Wald envisioned. The paper first addresses binary choice problems, …
Statistics has moved beyond the frequentist-Bayesian controversies of the past. Where does this leave our ability to interpret results? I suggest that a philosophy compatible with statistical practice, labeled here statistical pragmatism, serves as a foundation for inference. Statistical pragmatism is inclusive and emphasizes the assumptions that connect statistical models with observed data. I argue that introductory courses often mischaracterize the process of statistical inference and I propose an alternative "big picture" depiction.
A new model for time series with a specific oscillation pattern is proposed. The model consists of a hidden phase process controlling the speed of polling and a nonparametric curve characterizing the pattern, leading together to a generalized state space model. Identifiability of the model is proved and a method for statistical inference based on a particle smoother and a nonparametric EM algorithm is developed. In particular, the oscillation pattern and the unobserved phase process are estimated. The proposed algorithms are computationally efficient and their performance is assessed through s…
In this work we introduce the concept of Bures-Wasserstein barycenter $Q_*$, that is essentially a Fréchet mean of some distribution $\mathbb{P}$ supported on a subspace of positive semi-definite Hermitian operators $\mathbb{H}_{+}(d)$. We allow a barycenter to be restricted to some affine subspace of $\mathbb{H}_{+}(d)$ and provide conditions ensuring its existence and uniqueness. We also investigate convergence and concentration properties of an empirical counterpart of $Q_*$ in both Frobenius norm and Bures-Wasserstein distance, and explain, how obtained results are connected to optimal tra…
Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, theoretical developments in the theory of quantum measurements have brought the basic mathematical framework for the probability calculations much closer to that of classical probability theory. The present paper reviews this field and proposes and interrelates a number of new concepts for an extension of classical statistical inference to the quantum co…
We study asymptotic behavior of conditional least squares estimators for critical continuous state and continuous time branching processes with immigration based on discrete time (low frequency) observations.
Statistical inference may follow a frequentist approach or it may follow a Bayesian approach or it may use the minimum description length principle (MDL). Our goal is to identify situations in which these different approaches to statistical inference coincide. It is proved that for exponential families MDL and Bayesian inference coincide if and only if the renormalized saddle point approximation for the conjugated exponential family is exact. For 1-dimensional exponential families the only families with exact renormalized saddle point approximations are the Gaussian location family, the Gamma …
This paper introduces to readers the new concept and methodology of confidence distribution and the modern-day distributional inference in statistics. This discussion should be of interest to people who would like to go into the depth of the statistical inference methodology and to utilize distribution estimators in practice. We also include in the discussion the topic of generalized fiducial inference, a special type of modern distributional inference, and relate it to the concept of confidence distribution. Several real data examples are also provided for practitioners. We hope that the sele…
