We motivate and explore the basic features of generalized contagion, a model mechanism that unifies fundamental models of biological and social contagion. Generalized contagion builds on the elementary observation that spreading and contagion of all kinds involve some form of system memory. We discuss the three main classes of systems that generalized contagion affords, resembling: simple biological contagion; critical mass contagion of social phenomena; and an intermediate, and explosive, vanishing critical mass contagion. We also present a simple explanation of the global spreading condition in the context of a small seed of infected individuals.
We present derivations of the contagion condition for a range of spreading mechanisms on families of generalized random networks and bipartite random networks. We show how the contagion condition can be broken into three elements, two structural in nature, and the third a meshing of the contagion process and the network. The contagion conditions we obtain reflect the spreading dynamics in a clear, interpretable way. For threshold contagion, we discuss results for all-to-all and random network versions of the model, and draw connections between them.
We analytically determine when a range of abstract social contagion models permit global spreading from a single seed on degree-correlated random networks. We deduce the expected size of the largest vulnerable component, a network's tinderbox-like critical mass, as well as the probability that infecting a randomly chosen individual seed will trigger global spreading. In the appropriate limits, our results naturally reduce to standard ones for models of disease spreading and to the condition for the existence of a giant component. Recent advances in the distributed, infinite seed case allow us …
In this paper we introduce a statistical inference framework for estimating the contagion source from a partially observed contagion spreading process on an arbitrary network structure. The framework is based on a maximum likelihood estimation of a partial epidemic realization and involves large scale simulation of contagion spreading processes from the set of potential source locations. We present a number of different likelihood estimators that are used to determine the conditional probabilities associated to observing partial epidemic realization with particular source location candidates. …
For a broad range single-seed contagion processes acting on generalized random networks, we derive a unifying analytic expression for the possibility of global spreading events in a straightforward, physically intuitive fashion. Our reasoning lays bare a direct mechanical understanding of an archetypal spreading phenomena that is not evident in circuitous extant mathematical approaches.
The propagation of information in social, biological and technological systems represents a crucial component in their dynamic behavior. When limited to pairwise interactions, a rather firm grip is available on the relevant parameters and critical transitions of these spreading processes, most notably the pandemic transition, which indicates the conditions for the spread to cover a large fraction of the network. The challenge is that, in many relevant applications, the spread is driven by higher order relationships, in which several components undergo a group interaction. To address this, we a…
Community structure is an important factor in the behavior of real-world networks because it strongly affects the stability and thus the phase transition order of the spreading dynamics. We here propose a reversible social contagion model of community networks that includes the factor of social reinforcement. In our model an individual adopts a social contagion when the number of received units of information exceeds its adoption threshold. We use mean-field approximation to describe our proposed model, and the results agree with numerical simulations. The numerical simulations and theoretical…
Typically, contagion strength is modeled by a transmission rate $λ$, whereby all nodes in a network are treated uniformly in a mean-field approximation. However, local agents react differently to the same contagion based on their local characteristics. Following our recent work [EPL \textbf{99}, 58002 (2012)], we investigate contagion spreading models with local dynamics on complex networks. We therefore quantify contagions by their quality, $0 \leq α\leq 1$, and follow their spreading as their transmission condition (fitness) is evaluated by local agents. We choose various deterministic local…
A susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of multiple contagions on multilayer networks is developed to incorporate different spreading channels and disease mutations. The basic reproduction number for this model is estimated analytically. In a special case when considering only compartmental models, we analytically analyze an example of a model with a mutation driven strain persistence characterized by the absence of an epidemic threshold. This model is not related to the network topology and can be observed in both compartmental models and models on networks. The novel multiple-contagio…
Many spreading processes in our real-life can be considered as a complex contagion, and the linear threshold (LT) model is often applied as a very representative model for this mechanism. Despite its intensive usage, the LT model suffers several limitations in describing the time evolution of the spreading. First, the discrete-time step that captures the speed of the spreading is vaguely defined. Second, the synchronous updating rule makes the nodes infected in batches, which can not take individual differences into account. Finally, the LT model is incompatible with existing models for the si…
Social and biological contagions are influenced by the spatial embeddedness of networks. Historically, many epidemics spread as a wave across part of the Earth's surface; however, in modern contagions long-range edges -- for example, due to airline transportation or communication media -- allow clusters of a contagion to appear in distant locations. Here we study the spread of contagions on networks through a methodology grounded in topological data analysis and nonlinear dimension reduction. We construct "contagion maps" that use multiple contagions on a network to map the nodes as a point cl…
Spreading dynamics and complex contagion processes on networks are important mechanisms underlying the emergence of critical transitions, tipping points and other nonlinear phenomena in complex human and natural systems. Increasing amounts of temporal network data are now becoming available to study such spreading processes of behaviours, opinions, ideas, diseases and innovations to test hypotheses regarding their specific properties. To this end, we here present a methodology based on dose-response functions and hypothesis testing using surrogate data models that randomise most aspects of the…
We derive a general expression for the probability of global spreading starting from a single infected seed for contagion processes acting on generalized, correlated random networks. We employ a simple probabilistic argument that encodes the spreading mechanism in an intuitive, physical fashion. We use our approach to directly and systematically obtain triggering probabilities for contagion processes acting on a collection of random network families including bipartite random networks. We find the contagion condition, the location of the phase transition into an endemic state, from an expansio…
Albeit epidemic models have evolved into powerful predictive tools for the spread of diseases and opinions, most assume memoryless agents and independent transmission channels. We develop an infection mechanism that is endowed with memory of past exposures and simultaneously incorporates the joint effect of multiple infectious sources. Analytic equations and simulations of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model in unstructured substrates reveal the emergence of an additional phase that separates the usual healthy and endemic ones. This intermediate phase shows fundamentally distinct charac…
The global crisis of 2008 provoked a heightened interest among scientists to study the phenomenon, its propagation and negative consequences. The process of modelling the spread of a virus is commonly used in epidemiology. Conceptually, the spread of a disease among a population is similar to the contagion process in economy. This similarity allows considering the contagion in the world financial system using the same mathematical model of infection spread that is often used in epidemiology. Our research focuses on the dynamic behaviour of contagion spreading in the global financial network. T…
A spreading process on a network is influenced by the network's underlying spatial structure, and it is insightful to study the extent to which a spreading process follows such structure. We consider a threshold contagion model on a network whose nodes are embedded in a manifold and which has both `geometric edges', which respect the geometry of the underlying manifold, and `nongeometric edges' that are not constrained by that geometry. Building on ideas from Taylor et al. \cite{Taylor2015}, we examine when a contagion propagates as a wave along a network whose nodes are embedded in a torus an…
An outstanding problem of interdisciplinary interest is to understand quantitatively the role of social contacts in contagion dynamics. In general, there are two types of contacts: close ones among friends, colleagues and family members, etc., and ordinary contacts from encounters with strangers. Typically, social reinforcement occurs for close contacts. Taking into account both types of contacts, we develop a contact-based model for social contagion. We find that, associated with the spreading dynamics, for random networks there is coexistence of continuous and discontinuous phase transitions…
Internet communication channels, e.g., Facebook, Twitter, and email, are multiplex networks that facilitate interaction and information-sharing among individuals. During brief time periods users often use a single communication channel, but then communication channel alteration (CCA) occurs. This means that we must refine our understanding of the dynamics of social contagions. We propose a non-Markovian behavior spreading model in multiplex networks that takes into account the CCA mechanism, and we develop a generalized edge-based compartmental method to describe the spreading dynamics. Throug…
Diffusion of innovation can be interpreted as a social spreading phenomena governed by the impact of media and social interactions. Although these mechanisms have been identified by quantitative theories, their role and relative importance are not entirely understood, since empirical verification has so far been hindered by the lack of appropriate data. Here we analyse a dataset recording the spreading dynamics of the world's largest Voice over Internet Protocol service to empirically support the assumptions behind models of social contagion. We show that the rate of spontaneous service adopti…
We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalisation of the activity-driven modelling framework. In this model of time-varying networks each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The first, describes the propensity to form connections. The second, defines the propensity to attract them. We derive analytically the epidemic threshold considering the timescale driving the evolution of contacts and the contagion as comparable. The solutions are general and hold for any joint distribution of activity and attractiveness. The theoretical picture is…
Understanding how contagions (information, infections, etc) are spread on complex networks is important both from practical as well as theoretical point of view. Considerable work has been done in this regard in the past decade or so. However, most models are limited in their scope and as a result only capture general features of spreading phenomena. Here, we propose and study a model of spreading which takes into account the strength or quality of contagions as well as the local (probabilistic) dynamics occurring at various nodes. Transmission occurs only after the quality-based fitness of th…
We present the mathematical analysis of generalized complex contagions in clustered multiplex networks for susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-like dynamics. The model is intended to understand diffusion of influence, or any other spreading process implying a threshold dynamics, in setups of interconnected networks with significant clustering. The contagion is assumed to be general enough to account for a content-dependent linear threshold model, where each link type has a different weight (for spreading influence) that may depend on the content (e.g., product, rumor, political view) that is …
We present some ideas on how to extend a kinetic type model for crowd dynamics to account for an infectious disease spreading. We focus on a medium size crowd occupying a confined environment where the disease is easily spread. The kinetic theory approach we choose uses tools of game theory to model the interactions of a person with the surrounding people and the environment and it features a parameter to represent the level of stress. It is known that people choose different walking strategies when subjected to fear or stressful situations. To demonstrate that our model for crowd dynamics cou…
Panic may spread over a crowd in a similar fashion as contagious diseases do in social groups. People no exposed to a panic source may express fear, alerting others of imminent danger. This social mechanism initiates an evacuation process, while affecting the way people try to escape. We examined real life situations of panic contagion and reproduced these situations in the context of the Social Force Model. We arrived to the conclusion that two evacuation schemes may appear, according to the \textit{stress} of the panic contagion. Both schemes exhibit different evacuation patterns and are qua…
We study the competition of two spreading entities, for example innovations, in complex contagion processes in complex networks. We develop an analytical framework and examine the role of dual users, i.e. agents using both technologies. Searching for the spreading transition of the new innovation and the extinction transition of a preexisting one, we identify different phases depending on network mean degree, prevalence of preexisting technology, and thresholds of the contagion process. Competition with the preexisting technology effectively suppresses the spread of the new innovation, but it …
We focus on the modeling and simulation of an infectious disease spreading in a medium size population occupying a confined environment, such as an airport terminal, for short periods of time. Because of the size of the crowd and venue, we opt for a kinetic type model. The paper is divided into two parts. In the first part, we adopt the simplifying assumption that people's walking speed and direction are given. The resulting kinetic model features a variable that denotes the level of exposure to people spreading the disease, a parameter describing the contagion interaction strength, and a kern…
We introduce a model to study the delicate relation between the spreading of information and the formation of opinions in social systems. For this purpose, we propose a two-layer multiplex network model in which consensus dynamics takes place in one layer while information spreading runs across the other one. The two dynamical processes are mutually coupled by considering that the control parameters that govern the dynamical evolution of the state of the nodes inside each layer depend on the dynamical states at the other layer. In particular, we explore the scenario in which consensus is favor…
We present a minimal yet empirically-grounded theory for the spread of online harms (e.g. misinformation, hate) across current multi-platform social media and future Metaverses. New physics emerges from the interplay between the intrinsic heterogeneity among online communities and platforms, their clustering dynamics generated through user-created links and sudden moderator shutdowns, and the contagion process. The theory provides an online `R-nought' criterion to prevent system-wide spreading; it predicts re-entrant spreading phases; it establishes the level of digital vaccination required fo…
Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like processes, there is a need to predict the speed of a particular contagion in a particular network, and to distinguish between nodes that are more likely to become infected sooner or later during an outbreak. Here, we study these quantities using a message-passing approach to derive simple and effective predictions which are validated against epidemic simulations on…
A simple contagion process describes spreading of traffic jams in urban networks
University of New South Wales (UNSW)（新南威尔士大学）；Monash University（莫纳什大学）；K.N. Toosi University of Technology（K.N.托伊西理工大学）；CSIRO（澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；University of California, Berkeley（加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校）
Research on social contagion dynamics has not yet including a theoretical analysis of the ubiquitous local trend imitation (LTI) characteristic. We propose a social contagion model with a tent-like adoption probability distribution to investigate the effect of this LTI characteristic on behavior spreading. We also propose a generalized edge-based compartmental theory to describe the proposed model. Through extensive numerical simulations and theoretical analyses, we find a crossover in the phase transition: when the LTI capacity is strong, the growth of the final behavior adoption size exhibit…
The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and critical phenomena of networked coevolution spreading are extremely important, which provide theoretical foundations for us to control epidemic spreading, predict collective behaviors in social systems, and so on. The coevolution spreading dynamics in complex networks has thus attracted much attention in many disciplines. In this review, we introduce recent pr…
Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis…
Social reinforcement mechanism, which characterizes the promoting effects when exposing to multiple sources in social contagion process, is ubiquitous in information-technology ecosystem and has aroused great attention in recent years. While the impacts of social reinforcement on single-layer networks are well-documented, extension to multilayer networks is needed to study how reinforcement from different social circles influences the spreading dynamics. To this end, we incorporate multilayer social reinforcement into ignorant-spreader-ignorant (SIS) model on multiplex networks. Our theoretica…
Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex and time-varying networks. However, these two advancements have progressed almost in parallel with very little overlap. Thus, the interplay between multiplexity and the temporal nature of connectivity patterns is poorly understood. Here, we aim to tackle this limitation by introducing a time-varying model of multiplex networks. We are interested in character…
As a large-scale instance of dramatic collective behaviour, the 2005 French riots started in a poor suburb of Paris, then spread in all of France, lasting about three weeks. Remarkably, although there were no displacements of rioters, the riot activity did travel. Access to daily national police data has allowed us to explore the dynamics of riot propagation. Here we show that an epidemic-like model, with just a few parameters and a single sociological variable characterizing neighbourhood deprivation, accounts quantitatively for the full spatio-temporal dynamics of the riots. This is the firs…
Heterogeneous adoption thresholds exist widely in social contagions, but were always neglected in previous studies. We first propose a non-Markovian spreading threshold model with general adoption threshold distribution. In order to understand the effects of heterogeneous adoption thresholds quantitatively, an edge-based compartmental theory is developed for the proposed model. We use a binary spreading threshold model as a specific example, in which some individuals have a low adoption threshold (i.e., activists) while the remaining ones hold a relatively high adoption threshold (i.e., bigots…
Empirical evidence reveals that contagion processes often occur with competition of simple and complex contagion, meaning that while some agents follow simple contagion, others follow complex contagion. Simple contagion refers to spreading processes induced by a single exposure to a contagious entity while complex contagion demands multiple exposures for transmission. Inspired by this observation, we propose a model of contagion dynamics with a transmission probability that initiates a process of complex contagion. With this probability nodes subject to simple contagion get adopted and trigger…
Spreading processes are ubiquitous in natural and artificial systems. They can be studied via a plethora of models, depending on the specific details of the phenomena under study. Disease contagion and rumor spreading are among the most important of these processes due to their practical relevance. However, despite the similarities between them, current models address both spreading dynamics separately. In this paper, we propose a general information spreading model that is based on discrete time Markov chains. The model includes all the transitions that are plausible for both a disease contag…
Diffusion of information, behavioral patterns or innovations follows diverse pathways depending on a number of conditions, including the structure of the underlying social network, the sensitivity to peer pressure and the influence of media. Here we study analytically and by simulations a general model that incorporates threshold mechanism capturing sensitivity to peer pressure, the effect of `immune' nodes who never adopt, and a perpetual flow of external information. While any constant, non-zero rate of dynamically-introduced spontaneous adopters leads to global spreading, the kinetics by wh…
We derive analytic expressions for the possibility, probability, and expected size of global spreading events starting from a single infected seed for a broad collection of contagion processes acting on random networks with both directed and undirected edges and arbitrary degree-degree correlations. Our work extends previous theoretical developments for the undirected case, and we provide numerical support for our findings by investigating an example class of networks for which we are able to obtain closed-form expressions.
In this Chapter, we discuss the effects of higher-order structures on SIS-like processes of social contagion. After a brief motivational introduction where we illustrate the standard SIS process on networks and the difference between simple and complex contagions, we introduce spreading processes on higher-order structures starting from the most general formulation on hypergraphs and then moving to several mean-field and heterogeneous mean-field approaches. The results highlight the rich phenomenology brought by taking into account higher-order contagion effects: both continuous and discontinu…
Recent empirical studies have confirmed the key roles of complex contagion mechanisms such as memory, social reinforcement, and decay effects in information diffusion and behaviour spreading. Inspired by this fact, we here propose a new agent--based model to capture the whole picture of the joint action of the three mechanisms in information spreading, by quantifying the complex contagion mechanisms as stickiness and persistence, and carry out extensive simulations of the model on various networks. By numerical simulations as well as theoretical analysis, we find that the stickiness of the mes…
Using the notion of effective distance proposed by Brockmann and Helbing, complex spatiotemporal processes of epidemic spreading can be reduced to circular wave propagation patterns with well-defined wavefronts. This hidden homogeneity of contagion phenomena enables the mapping of virtual mobility networks to physical propagation channels. Subsequently, we propose a novel communications-inspired model of epidemic spreading and mitigation by establishing the one-to-one correspondence between the essential components comprising information and disease transmissions. The epidemic processes can be…
We study the critical behavior of a general contagion model where nodes are either active (e.g. with opinion A, or functioning) or inactive (e.g. with opinion B, or damaged). The transitions between these two states are determined by (i) spontaneous transitions independent of the neighborhood, (ii) transitions induced by neighboring nodes and (iii) spontaneous reverse transitions. The resulting dynamics is extremely rich including limit cycles and random phase switching. We derive a unifying mean-field theory. Specifically, we analytically show that the critical behavior of systems whose dynam…
Non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distancing, can play an important role to control an epidemic in the absence of vaccinations. In this paper, we study the impact of social distancing on epidemics for which it is executable. We use a mathematical model combining human mobility and disease spreading. For the mobility dynamics, we design an agent based model consisting of pedestrian dynamics with a novel type of force to resemble social distancing in crowded sites. For the spreading dynamics, we consider the compartmental SIE dynamics plus an indirect transmission with the footprints of…
Previous work has shown that for contagion processes on extended star networks (trees with exactly one node of degree > 2), there is a simple, closed-form expression for a highly accurate approximation to the maximum likelihood infection source. Here, we generalize that result to a class of hypertrees which, although somewhat structurally analogous, provides a much richer representation space. In particular, this approach can be used to estimate patient zero sources, even when the infection has been propagated via large group gatherings rather than person-to-person spread, and when it is sprea…
Single contagion processes are known to display a continuous transition from an epidemic-free phase at low contagion rates to the epidemic state for rates above a critical threshold. This transition can become discontinuous when two simple contagion processes are coupled in a bi-directional symmetric way. However, in many cases, the coupling is not symmetric and the processes can be of a different nature. For example, risky social behaviors -- such as not wearing masks or engaging in large gatherings -- can affect the spread of a disease, and their adoption dynamics via social reinforcement me…
