Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.
We give a overview of stochastic models of evolution that have found applications in genetics, ecology and linguistics for an audience of nonspecialists, especially statistical physicists. In particular, we focus mostly on neutral models in which no intrinsic advantage is ascribed to a particular type of the variable unit, for example a gene, appearing in the theory. In many cases these models are exactly solvable and furthermore go some way to describing observed features of genetic, ecological and linguistic systems.
This article shows how to specify and construct a discrete, stochastic, continuous-time model specifically for ecological systems. The model is more broad than typical chemical kinetics models in two ways. First, using time-dependent hazard rates simplifies the process of making models more faithful. Second, the state of the system includes individual traits and use of environmental resources. The models defined here focus on taking survival analysis of observations in the field and using the measured hazard rates to generate simulations which match exactly what was measured.
A fundamental problem in community ecology is to understand how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration give rise to observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we present a simple, analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly and use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, the amount of diversity, and demographic and environmental stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In the PA model, species are treated as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a…
The biological world, especially its majority microbial component, is strongly interacting and may be dominated by collective effects. In this review, we provide a brief introduction for statistical physicists of the way in which living cells communicate genetically through transferred genes, as well as the ways in which they can reorganize their genomes in response to environmental pressure. We discuss how genome evolution can be thought of as related to the physical phenomenon of annealing, and describe the sense in which genomes can be said to exhibit an analogue of information entropy. As …
Discrete time, spatially extended models play an important role in ecology, modelling population dynamics of species ranging from micro-organisms to birds. An important question is how 'bottom up', individual-based models can be approximated by 'top down' models of dynamics. Here, we study a class of spatially explicit individual-based models with contest competition: where species compete for space in local cells and then disperse to nearby cells. We start by describing simulations of the model, which exhibit large-scale discrete oscillations and characterise these oscillations by measuring s…
We discuss the relevance of studying ecology within the framework of Complexity Science from a statistical mechanics approach. Ecology is concerned with understanding how systems level properties emerge out of the multitude of interactions amongst large numbers of components, leading to ecosystems that possess the prototypical characteristics of complex systems. We argue that statistical mechanics is at present the best methodology available to obtain a quantitative description of complex systems, and that ecology is in urgent need of ``integrative'' approaches that are quantitative and non-st…
Community ecology has traditionally relied on the competitive exclusion principle, a piece of common wisdom in conceptual frameworks developed to describe species assemblages. Key concepts in community ecology, such as limiting similarity and niche partitioning, are based on competitive exclusion. However, this classical paradigm in ecology relies on implications derived from simple, deterministic models. Here we show how the predictions of a symmetric, deterministic model about the way extinctions proceed can be utterly different from the results derived from the same model when ecological dr…
Oregon State University（俄勒冈州立大学）；Swiss Ornithological Institute（瑞士鸟类学研究所）
This paper focuses on a core task in computational sustainability and statistical ecology: species distribution modeling (SDM). In SDM, the occurrence pattern of a species on a landscape is predicted by environmental features based on observations at a set of locations. At first, SDM may appear to be a binary classification problem, and one might be inclined to employ classic tools (e.g., logistic regression, support vector machines, neural networks) to tackle it. However, wildlife surveys introduce structured noise (especially under-counting) in the species observations. If unaccounted for, t…
Increasing attention has been drawn to the misuse of statistical methods over recent years, with particular concern about the prevalence of practices such as poor experimental design, cherry-picking and inadequate reporting. These failures are largely unintentional and no more common in ecology than in other scientific disciplines, with many of them easily remedied given the right guidance. Originating from a discussion at the 2020 International Statistical Ecology Conference, we show how ecologists can build their research following four guiding principles for impactful statistical research p…
This thesis focuses on the applications of mathematical tools and concepts brought from nonequilibrium statistical physics to the modeling of ecological problems. The first part provides a short introduction where the theoretical concepts and mathematical tools that are going to be used in subsequent chapters are presented. Firstly, the different levels of description usually employed in the models are explained. Secondly, the mathematical relationships among them are presented. Finally, the notation and terminology that will be used later on are explained. The second part is devoted to studyi…
Motivated by the results of recent laboratory experiments (Yoshida et al. Nature, 424, 303-306 (2003)) as well as many earlier field observations that evolutionary changes can take place in ecosystems over relatively short ecological time scales, several ``unified'' mathematical models of evolutionary ecology have been developed over the last few years with the aim of describing the statistical properties of data related to the evolution of ecosystems. Moreover, because of the availability of sufficiently fast computers, it has become possible to carry out detailed computer simulations of thes…
We analyze an interacting particle system with a Markov evolution of birth-and-death type. We have shown that a local competition mechanism (realized via a density dependent mortality) leads to a globally regular behavior of the population in course of the stochastic evolution.
One of the properties that make ecological systems so unique is the range of complex behavioural patterns that can be exhibited by even the simplest communities with only a few species. Much of this complexity is commonly attributed to stochastic factors which have very high-degrees of freedom. Orthodox study of the evolution of these simple networks has generally been limited in its ability to explain complexity, since it restricts evolutionary adaptation to an inertia-free process with few degrees of freedom in which only gradual, moderately complex behaviours are possible. We propose a mode…
This work deals with two problems arising in mathematical ecology. The first problem is concerned with diploid branching particle models and its behavior when rapid stirring is added to the interaction. The particle models involve two types of particles, male and female, and branching can only occur when both types of particles are present. We show that if the branching rate is sufficiently large, this particle model has a nontrivial stationary distribution, i.e. one that does not concentrate all weight on the all-0 state, using a comparison argument due to R. Durrett. We also show extinction …
Recently there has been growing interest in the use of Maximum Relative Entropy (MaxREnt) as a tool for statistical inference in ecology. In contrast, here we propose MaxREnt as a tool for applying statistical mechanics to ecology. We use MaxREnt to explain and predict species abundance patterns in ecological communities in terms of the most probable behaviour under given environmental constraints, in the same way that statistical mechanics explains and predicts the behaviour of thermodynamic systems. We show that MaxREnt unifies a number of different ecological patterns: (i) at relatively loc…
In biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) research, the Loreau-Hector (LH) statistical scheme is widely-used to partition the effect of biodiversity on ecosystem properties into a "complementarity effect" and a "selection effect". This selection effect was originally considered analogous to the selection term in the Price equation from evolutionary biology. However, a key paper published over thirteen years ago challenged this interpretation by devising a new tripartite partitioning scheme that purportedly quantified the role of selection in biodiversity experiments more accurately. This…
Evolution is the fundamental physical process that gives rise to biological phenomena. Yet it is widely treated as a subset of population genetics, and thus its scope is artificially limited. As a result, the key issues of how rapidly evolution occurs, and its coupling to ecology have not been satisfactorily addressed and formulated. The lack of widespread appreciation for, and understanding of, the evolutionary process has arguably retarded the development of biology as a science, with disastrous consequences for its applications to medicine, ecology and the global environment. This review fo…
Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional landscape. An ecologically superior invader and a resident species compete for space preemptively. Our general model includes the basic contact process and a variant of the Eden model as special cases. We employ the concept of a "roughened" front to quantify effects of discreteness and stochasticity on invasion; we emphasize the probability distribution of the front-runner…
A central question in ecology is to understand the ecological processes that shape community structure. Niche-based theories have emphasized the important role played by competition for maintaining species diversity. Many of these insights have been derived using MacArthur's consumer resource model (MCRM) or its generalizations. Most theoretical work on the MCRM has focused on small ecosystems with a few species and resources. However theoretical insights derived from small ecosystems many not scale up large ecosystems with many resources and species because large systems with many interacting…
Variance partitioning methods, which are built upon multivariate statistics, have been widely applied in different taxa and habitats in community ecology. Here, I performed a literature review on the development and application of the methods, and then discussed the limitation of available methods and the difficulties involved in sampling schemes. The central goal of the work is then to propose some potential practical methods that might help to overcome different issues of traditional least-square-based regression modeling. A variety of regression models has been considered for comparison. In…
A central problem in population ecology is understanding the consequences of stochastic fluctuations. Analytically tractable models with Gaussian driving noise have led to important, general insights, but they fail to capture rare, catastrophic events, which are increasingly observed at scales ranging from global fisheries to intestinal microbiota. Due to mathematical challenges, growth processes with random catastrophes are less well characterized and it remains unclear how their consequences differ from those of Gaussian processes. In the face of a changing climate and predicted increases in…
Dimensionality-induced critical phase transition in stochastic Lotka-Volterra equation: From statistical averaging to systemic tipping point
State Key Laboratory of Animal Biodiversity Conservation and Integrated Pest Management, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院动物研究所生物多样性保护与有害生物综合治理国家重点实验室）；School of Life Science and Technology, Northwestern Polytechnical University（西北工业大学生命科学与技术学院）；School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northwestern Polytechnical University（西北工业大学数学与统计学院）；State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction (VegLab), Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Peking University（北京大学城市与环境学院生态研究所植被结构、功能与构建国家重点实验室（VegLab））
Populations can be genetically isolated both by geographic distance and by differences in their ecology or environment that decrease the rate of successful migration. Empirical studies often seek to investigate the relationship between genetic differentiation and some ecological variable(s) while accounting for geographic distance, but common approaches to this problem (such as the partial Mantel test) have a number of drawbacks. In this article, we present a Bayesian method that enables users to quantify the relative contributions of geographic distance and ecological distance to genetic diff…
When a system has more than one stable state, how can the stability of these states be compared? This deceptively simple question has important consequences for ecosystems, because systems with alternative stable states can undergo dramatic regime shifts. The probability, frequency, duration, and dynamics of these shifts will all depend on the relative stability of the stable states. Unfortunately, the concept of stability in ecology has suffered from substantial confusion and this is particularly problematic for systems where stochastic perturbations can cause shifts between coexisting altern…
Resolving the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning has been one of the central goals of modern ecology. Early debates about the relationship were finally resolved with the advent of a statistical partitioning scheme that decomposed the biodiversity effect into a "selection" effect and a "complementarity" effect. We prove that both the biodiversity effect and its statistical decomposition into selection and complementarity are fundamentally flawed because these methods use a naïve null expectation based on neutrality, likely leading to an overestimate of the net biodivers…
The classification of the long-term behavior of dynamical systems is a fundamental problem in mathematics. For both deterministic and stochastic dynamics specific classes of models verify Palis' conjecture: the long-term behavior is determined by a finite number of stationary distributions. In this paper we consider the classification problem for stochastic models of interacting species. For a large class of three-species, stochastic differential equation models, we prove a variant of Palis' conjecture: the long-term statistical behavior is determined by a finite number of stationary distribut…
Scaling laws in ecology, intended both as functional relationships among ecologically-relevant quantities and the probability distributions that characterize their occurrence, have long attracted the interest of empiricists and theoreticians. Empirical evidence exists of power laws associated with the number of species inhabiting an ecosystem, their abundances and traits. Although their functional form appears to be ubiquitous, empirical scaling exponents vary with ecosystem type and resource supply rate. The idea that ecological scaling laws are linked had been entertained before, but the ful…
