Discrete time, spatially extended models play an important role in ecology, modelling population dynamics of species ranging from micro-organisms to birds. An important question is how 'bottom up', individual-based models can be approximated by 'top down' models of dynamics. Here, we study a class of spatially explicit individual-based models with contest competition: where species compete for space in local cells and then disperse to nearby cells. We start by describing simulations of the model, which exhibit large-scale discrete oscillations and characterise these oscillations by measuring spatial correlations. We then develop two new approximate descriptions of the resulting spatial population dynamics. The first is based on local interactions of the individuals and allows us to give a difference equation approximation of the system over small dispersal distances. The second approximates the long-range interactions of the individual-based model. These approximations capture demographic stochasticity from the individual-based model and show that dispersal stabilizes population dynamics. We calculate extinction probability for the individual-based model and show convergence between the local approximation and the non-spatial global approximation of the individual-based model as dispersal distance and population size simultaneously tend to infinity. Our results provide new approximate analytical descriptions of a complex bottom-up model and deepen understanding of spatial population dynamics.
This article shows how to specify and construct a discrete, stochastic, continuous-time model specifically for ecological systems. The model is more broad than typical chemical kinetics models in two ways. First, using time-dependent hazard rates simplifies the process of making models more faithful. Second, the state of the system includes individual traits and use of environmental resources. The models defined here focus on taking survival analysis of observations in the field and using the measured hazard rates to generate simulations which match exactly what was measured.
This paper presents a study of the two-predators-two-preys discrete-time Lotka-Volterra model with self- inhibition terms for preys with direct applications to ecological problems. Parameters in the model are modified so that each of them has its own biological meaning, enabling more intuitive interpretation of biological conditions to the model . Moreover, the modified version is applicable to simulate a part of a large ecosystem, not only a closed predator-prey system with four species. An easy graphical method of analysis of the conditions on parameters ensuring long persistence under coexi…
Animals use various processes to inform themselves about their environment and make decisions about how to move and form their territory. In some cases, populations inform themselves of competing groups through observations at distances, scent markings, or memories of locations where an individual has encountered competing populations. As the process of gathering this information is inherently nonlocal, mechanistic models that include nonlocal terms have been proposed to investigate the movement of species. Naturally, these models present analytical and computational challenges. In this work w…
This paper is to show that most discrete models used for population dynamics in ecology are inherently pathological that their predications cannot be independently verified by experiments because they violate a fundamental principle of physics. The result is used to tackle an on-going controversy regarding ecological chaos. Another implication of the result is that all continuous dynamical systems must be modeled by differential equations. As a result it suggests that researches based on discrete modeling must be closely scrutinized and the teaching of calculus and differential equations must …
The theory of island biogeography[1] asserts that an island or a local community approaches an equilibrium species richness as a result of the interplay between the immigration of species from the much larger metacommunity source area and local extinction of species on the island (local community). Hubbell[2] generalized this neutral theory to explore the expected steady-state distribution of relative species abundance (RSA) in the local community under restricted immigration. Here we present a theoretical framework for the unified neutral theory of biodiversity[2] and an analytical solution f…
Community ecology has traditionally relied on the competitive exclusion principle, a piece of common wisdom in conceptual frameworks developed to describe species assemblages. Key concepts in community ecology, such as limiting similarity and niche partitioning, are based on competitive exclusion. However, this classical paradigm in ecology relies on implications derived from simple, deterministic models. Here we show how the predictions of a symmetric, deterministic model about the way extinctions proceed can be utterly different from the results derived from the same model when ecological dr…
Markov chains are a common framework for individual-based state and time discrete models in ecology and evolution. Their use, however, is largely limited to systems with a low number of states, since the transition matrices involved pose considerable challenges as their size and their density increase. Big, dense transition matrices may easily defy both the computer's memory and the scientists' ability to interpret them, due to the very high amount of information they contain; yet approximations using other types of models are not always the best solution. We propose a set of methods to overco…
Current questions in ecology revolve around instabilities in the dynamics on spatial networks and particularly the effect of node heterogeneity. We extend the Master Stability Function formalism to inhomogeneous biregular networks having two types of spatial nodes. Notably, this class of systems also allows the investigation of certain types of dynamics on higher-order networks. Combined with the Generalized Modelling approach to study the linear stability of steady states, this is a powerful tool to numerically asses the stability of large ensembles of systems. We analyze the stability of eco…
Mutual interference and prey refuge are important drivers of predator-prey dynamics. The "exponent" or degree of mutual interference has been under much debate in theoretical ecology. In the present work, we investigate the interplay of the mutual interference exponent, on the behavior of a predator-prey model with a generalized Holling type functional response. We investigate stability properties of the system and derive conditions for the occurrence of saddle-node and Hopf-bifurcations. A sufficient condition for extinction of the prey species has also been derived for the model. In addition…
A central problem in population ecology is understanding the consequences of stochastic fluctuations. Analytically tractable models with Gaussian driving noise have led to important, general insights, but they fail to capture rare, catastrophic events, which are increasingly observed at scales ranging from global fisheries to intestinal microbiota. Due to mathematical challenges, growth processes with random catastrophes are less well characterized and it remains unclear how their consequences differ from those of Gaussian processes. In the face of a changing climate and predicted increases in…
The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic…
One of the most salient spatio-temporal patterns in population ecology is the synchronization of fluctuating local populations across vast spatial extent. Synchronization of abundance has been widely observed across a range of spatial scales in relation to rate of dispersal among discrete populations. However, the dependence of synchrony on patterns of among-patch movement across heterogeneous landscapes has been largely ignored. Here we consider the duration of movement between two predator-prey communities connected by weak dispersal, and its effect on population synchrony. More specifically…
Populations are made up of an integer number of individuals and are subject to stochastic birth-death processes whose rates may vary in time. Useful quantities, like the chance of ultimate fixation, satisfy an appropriate difference (master) equation, but closed-form solutions of these equations are rare. Analytical insights in fields like population genetics, ecology and evolution rely, almost exclusively, on an uncontrolled application of the diffusion approximation (DA) which assumes the smoothness of the relevant quantities over the set of integers. Here we combine asymptotic matching tech…
The theory of slow manifolds is an important tool in the study of deterministic dynamical systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of relevant degrees of freedom in a model, thereby often resulting in a considerable simplification. In this article we demonstrate how the same basic methodology may also be applied to stochastic dynamical systems, by examining the behaviour of trajectories conditioned on the event that they do not depart the slow manifold. We apply the method to two models: one from ecology and one from epidemiology, achieving a reduction in model dimensio…
Understanding the conditions of feasibility and stability in ecological systems is a major challenge in theoretical ecology. The seminal work of May in 1972 and recent developments based on the theory of random matrices have shown the existence of emergent universal patterns of both stability and feasibility in ecological dynamics. However, only a few studies have investigated the role of delay coupled with population dynamics in the emergence of feasible and stable states. In this work, we study the effects of delay on Generalized Loka-Volterra population dynamics of several interacting speci…
We study a stochastic linear discrete metapolulation model to understand the effect of risk spreading by dispersion. We calculate analytically the stable distribution of populations that live in different habitats. The result shows that the simultaneous distribution of the populations has a complicated self-similar structure, but a population at each habitat follows a log-normal distribution.
In biology and ecology, individuals or communities of individuals living in unpredictable environments often alternate between different evolutionary strategies to spread and reduce risks. Such behavior is commonly referred to as "bet-hedging." Long-term survival probabilities and population sizes can be much enhanced by exploiting such hybrid strategies. Here, we study the simplest possible birth-death stochastic model in which individuals can choose among a poor but safe strategy, a better but risky alternative, or a combination of both. We show analytically and computationally that the bene…
Species extinction occurs regularly and unavoidably in ecological systems. The time scales for extinction can broadly vary and inform on the ecosystem's stability. We study the spatio-temporal extinction dynamics of a paradigmatic population model where three species exhibit cyclic competition. The cyclic dynamics reflects the non-equilibrium nature of the species interactions. While previous work focusses on the coarsening process as a mechanism that drives the system to extinction, we found that unexpectedly the dynamics to extinction is much richer. We observed three different types of dyna…
