预测长期太阳活动的确定性模式
A deterministic model for forecasting long-term solar activity
摘要：
本文提出了一个用M级和X级太阳耀斑数定量描述单个太阳活动周的特征，如开始、强度、演化等的唯象模型。模型的主要元素是木星和土星的相对黄道运动，以及它与太阳活动准周期分量的协同作用。使用第21周期期间耀斑的时间分布作为输入，第22-24周期的总体演变与观测结果非常一致，包括2017年最后几个月活动的复苏，并为第25周期提供了进一步的预测。这种确定性描述有助于阐明负责任的物理机制和预测空间天气。
英文摘要：
A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the relative ecliptic motion of the planets Jupiter and Saturn, and its synergy with a quasi-periodic component of solar activity. Using as input the temporal distribution of flares during cycle 21, the general evolution of cycles 22-24 is reproduced in notable agreement with the observations, including the resurgence of activity in the last months of 2017, and further predictions are provided for cycle 25. This deterministic description could contribute to elucidating the responsible physical mechanisms and forecasting space weather.
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