银河宇宙线长期预测的新模型
A new model for long-term forecasting of Galactic cosmic rays
AI总结：
提出基于日球层带电粒子输运数值模型的银河宇宙线长期预测框架，通过希尔伯特-黄变换滤波和太阳代理参数延迟相关性，实现多物种通量准确预测，支持空间辐射监测与十年尺度预测。
摘要：
银河宇宙线的调制受日球层磁场演化的驱动，强烈影响到达近地空间的宇宙线强度。表征这一过程对于增进我们对宇宙线输运的理解以及评估空间环境中的辐射暴露和相关危害至关重要。本文提出一个基于日球层带电粒子输运数值描述及其对太阳活动依赖性的新预测框架，专为银河宇宙线通量的长期预测而设计。该框架求解帕克输运方程的一维球对称形式，包括扩散、太阳风平流和绝热能量损失。模型已使用空间实验（PAMELA、AMS-02和ACE）的多物种通量测量进行了验证。其策略基于希尔伯特-黄变换滤波以及延迟太阳代理参数与有效模型参数之间的互相关。我们对扩散-平流过程的电荷符号和刚性依赖参数化描述与数据总体吻合良好，重建不确定性证明了这一点。该方法的稳健性通过覆盖不同粒子种类、能量范围和太阳活动相位的广泛多通道数据集得到验证，支持其在空间辐射监测和预测中的应用。此外，当与太阳代理预测模型耦合时，它能够实现银河宇宙线通量的十年尺度预测，从而为未来空间任务的长期规划和辐射风险评估提供支持。
英文摘要：
The modulation of galactic cosmic rays, driven by the evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field, strongly influences the intensity of cosmic rays reaching near-Earth space. Characterizing this process is crucial both for advancing our understanding of cosmic-ray transport and for assessing radiation exposure and related hazards in space environments. Here we present a newly developed forecasting framework built on a numerical description of charged particle transport in the heliosphere and its dependence on solar activity, designed for the long-term forecasting of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes. It solves a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric form of the Parker transport equation, including diffusion, solar-wind advection, and adiabatic energy losses. The model has been validated using multi-species flux measurements from space-based experiments: PAMELA, AMS-02, and ACE. Its strategy is based on Hilbert-Huang transform filtering and cross-correlation between delayed solar proxies and effective model parameters. Our charge-sign- and rigidity-dependent parametric description of the diffusion-advection processes yields good overall agreement with the data, as shown by the reconstruction uncertainty. The robustness of this approach is validated across a broad set of multichannel datasets covering different particle species, energy ranges, and phases of solar activity, supporting its applicability to space radiation monitoring and forecasting. Furthermore, when coupled with solar-proxy forecasting models, it enables decadal-scale predictions of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes, thereby supporting long-term planning and radiation-risk assessment for future space missions.
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