多元宇宙学典型性的三个方面
Three Aspects of Typicality in Multiverse Cosmology
摘要：
从描述多元宇宙的宇宙学理论中提取预测，对于我们可能在我们的领域中观察到的东西，对于建立这些理论的有效性至关重要。提取这种预测的一种方法是从理论生成的概率分布中提取，这种概率分布允许选择效应-通常用关于人择条件化的假设以及我们有多典型来表示。在这篇文章中，我提出了三个关于多元宇宙中典型性的教训。(i)因为很难描述我们在多元宇宙中的观测情况，所以我们不能假设我们是典型的（如在“平行性原理”中）：我们也不能忽视典型性的问题，因为它对我们观测的预测有着可测量的影响。(ii)有关于条件化和典型性的假设光谱，这导致我们的观测符合预测，导致多重宇宙学的确认问题。此外，（iii）当一个人有自由考虑多元宇宙的竞争理论时，典型性的假设可能不会导致我们观察到的最高可能性。典型性的这三个方面意味着，关于我们的典型性的积极主张，如“典型性原则”，比最近声称的更值得怀疑。
英文摘要：
Extracting predictions from cosmological theories that describe a multiverse, for what we are likely to observe in our domain, is crucial to establishing the validity of these theories. One way to extract such predictions is from theory-generated probability distributions that allow for selection effects---generally expressed in terms of assumptions about anthropic conditionalization and how typical we are. In this paper, I urge three lessons about typicality in multiverse settings. (i) Because it is difficult to characterize our observational situation in the multiverse, we cannot assume that we are typical (as in the 'principle of mediocrity'): nor can we ignore the issue of typicality, for it has a measurable impact on predictions for our observations. (ii) There are spectra of assumptions about both conditionalization and typicality, which lead to coincident predictions for our observations, leading to problems of confirmation in multiverse cosmology. And moreover, (iii) when one has the freedom to consider competing theories of the multiverse, the assumption of typicality may not lead to the highest likelihoods for our observations. These three entwined aspects of typicality imply that positive assertions about our typicality, such as the 'principle of mediocrity', are more questionable than has been recently claimed.
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