多重宇宙中的条件化和典型性谱
Spectra of conditionalization and typicality in the multiverse
摘要：
一种测试描述多元宇宙的理论的方法，最近引起了人们的兴趣，包括将理论产生的可观测值的概率分布与实验测量值进行比较。如果我们确实能够明确地计算出这些分布，那么这些分布很可能会给任何这样的实验测量值分配很低的概率。因此拒绝这些理论的另一种选择是通过将注意力限制在我们可能出现的多元宇宙的领域来限制所涉及的分布。然而，为了得出一个明确的预测，我们需要进一步假设我们在所选领域中的典型性。在本文中，我们调查的光谱之间的相互作用的条件化和典型性的假设，并绘制出这些相互作用在一个具体的设置的影响，即，对预测的物种总数，显着贡献的暗物质。特别是，对于每一个条件化方案的研究，我们分析了不同的暗物质物种的密度之间的相关性如何影响预测，并阐明了关于典型性的假设的影响。我们发现，相关性的影响可以依赖于条件化方案，在每种情况下，重复性可以显着改变预测。在这样做的时候，我们证明了重叠的存在，在不同的“框架”组成的理论，条件化方案和典型性假设的连接的预测。这一结论强调了使用此类测试来确定旨在描述我们在多元宇宙中的观测情况的首选框架所面临的严峻挑战。
英文摘要：
An approach to testing theories describing a multiverse, that has gained interest of late, involves comparing theory-generated probability distributions over observables with their experimentally measured values. It is likely that such distributions, were we indeed able to calculate them unambiguously, will assign low probabilities to any such experimental measurements. An alternative to thereby rejecting these theories, is to conditionalize the distributions involved by restricting attention to domains of the multiverse in which we might arise. In order to elicit a crisp prediction, however, one needs to make a further assumption about how typical we are of the chosen domains. In this paper, we investigate interactions between the spectra of available assumptions regarding both conditionalization and typicality, and draw out the effects of these interactions in a concrete setting; namely, on predictions of the total number of species that contribute significantly to dark matter. In particular, for each conditionalization scheme studied, we analyze how correlations between densities of different dark matter species affect the prediction, and explicate the effects of assumptions regarding typicality. We find that the effects of correlations can depend on the conditionalization scheme, and that in each case atypicality can significantly change the prediction. In doing so, we demonstrate the existence of overlaps in the predictions of different "frameworks" consisting of conjunctions of theory, conditionalization scheme and typicality assumption. This conclusion highlights the acute challenges involved in using such tests to identify a preferred framework that aims to describe our observational situation in a multiverse.
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