使用运行太阳风模式对高速太阳风流预报的验证
Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models
摘要：
从冕洞发出的高速太阳风流经常撞击地球的磁层，造成经常性的中等水平的地磁暴活动。因此，模拟高速太阳风流是成功预报空间天气的一个基本要素。在这里，我们评估高速流预测经验太阳风预测（ESWF）和半经验Wang-Sheeley-Arge（WSA）模型的基础上，从ACE航天器的原位等离子体测量2011年至2014年。虽然ESWF利用太阳动力学观测站/大气成像组件图像中观测到的冕洞面积与近地环境下太阳风特性之间的经验关系，但WSA模型建立了从光球层延伸到日冕的开放磁场线的特性与背景太阳风条件之间的联系。我们发现，这两个太阳风模型都能够预测观测到的太阳风速度的大尺度特征（均方根误差，RMSE $\approx$ 100 km/s），但往往高估（ESWF）或低估（WSA）高速太阳风流的数量（威胁评分，TS $\approx$ 0.37）。预测的高速流显示出典型的不确定性，在约1天的到达时间和不确定性，在约100公里/秒的速度。一般的优点和缺点的调查太阳风模型进行诊断和概述。
英文摘要：
High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the ACE spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation between the coronal hole area observed in Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images and solar wind properties at the near-Earth environment, the WSA model establishes a link between properties of the open magnetic field lines extending from the photosphere to the corona and the background solar wind conditions. We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large-scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root-mean-square error, RMSE $\approx$ 100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high-speed solar wind streams (threat score, TS $\approx$ 0.37). The predicted high-speed streams show typical uncertainties in the arrival time of about 1 day and uncertainties in the speed of about 100 km/s. General advantages and disadvantages of the investigated solar wind models are diagnosed and outlined.
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