气象局空间天气运行中心的耀斑预报
Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre
摘要：
气象局空间天气运营中心为英国各地的政府和商业终端用户提供24/7/365空间天气指导、警报和预报。太阳耀斑预报是其产品之一，每天以两种形式多次发布;未来24小时内太阳盘面上每个活跃区域的预报，以及未来四天的全盘面预报。这里的预报过程中详细描述，以及第一次验证存档的预报使用的方法通常用于业务天气预报。实时验证可用于业务耀斑预报使用也进行了说明。人类预测员的影响力得到了强调，人类编辑的预测结果优于原始模型结果，预测技能随着预测提前期的延长而下降。
英文摘要：
The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms; forecasts for each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 hours, and full-disk forecasts for the next four days. Here the forecasting process is described in detail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methods commonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verification available for operational flare forecasting use is also described. The influence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecasts outperforming original model results, and forecasting skill decreasing over longer forecast lead times.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
