Regression modeling method of space weather prediction

What Sustained Multi-Disciplinary Research Can Achieve: The Space Weather Modeling Framework

MHD-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the "free spirit" approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan, that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter o…

OSPREI: A Coupled Approach to Modeling CME-Driven Space Weather with Automatically-Generated, User-Friendly Outputs

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and throughout the solar system. Current CME-related space weather predictions rely on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes from only a single viewpoint, to drive a simple interplanetary propagation model, which only gives the arrival time or limited additional information. We present the coupling of three established models into OSPREI (Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information), a new tool that describes Sun-to-Earth CME behavior, including the location, orientation, size, shape, speed, arrival time, an…

Space Weather Observations, Modeling, and Alerts in Support of Human Exploration of Mars

Space weather observations and modeling at Mars have begun but they must be significantly increased to support the future of Human Exploration on the Red Planet. A comprehensive space weather understanding of a planet without a global magnetosphere and a thin atmosphere is very different from our situation at Earth so there is substantial fundamental research remaining. It is expected that the development of suitable models will lead to a comprehensive operational Mars space weather alert (MSWA) system that would provide rapid dissemination of information to Earth controllers, astronauts in tr…

Using gradient boosting regression to improve ambient solar wind model predictions

Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of activity in the Earth's magnetic field. Accurately forecasting the ambient solar wind flow is therefore imperative to space weather awareness. Here we present a machine learning approach in which solutions from magnetic models of the solar corona are u…

连接太阳耀斑与恒星耀斑/日冕物质抛射：将日球层物理学扩展至系外行星空间天气

Connecting Solar and Stellar Flares/CMEs: Expanding Heliophysics to Encompass Exoplanetary Space Weather

本白皮书总结了恒星耀斑、CME与系外行星空间天气在观测与建模上的空白，建议利用日球层物理学的理论与计算工具，通过加强CME理论与数值研究、恒星观测分析及MHD建模等四个方面，推动太阳与恒星研究的跨学科合作。

Addressing Gaps in Space Weather Operations and Understanding with Small Satellites

Gaps in space weather observations that can be addressed with small satellites are identified. Potential improvements in solar inputs to space weather models, space radiation control, estimations of energy budget of the upper Earth's atmosphere, and satellite drag modeling are briefly discussed. Key observables, instruments and observation strategies by small satellites are recommended. Tracking optimization for small satellites is proposed.