arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2008.12276physics.space-phastro-ph.EP
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极端事件的电导模式:极光电导对空间天气预报的影响

Conductance Model for Extreme Events : Impact of Auroral Conductance on Space Weather Forecasts

Agnit Mukhopadhyay, Daniel T Welling, Michael W Liemohn, Aaron J Ridley, Shibaji Chakrabarty, Brian J Anderson

摘要:

电离层电导是调节通过电离层的磁层场向电流(如霍尔电流和佩德森电流)闭合的关键因素。尽管它在磁层-电离层耦合的预测研究中的重要性,极光区电离层电导的估计是不稳定的,在大多数全球第一性原理为基础的模型。在估算极光电导时的这种不精确性妨碍了我们对极端空间天气事件期间磁层-电离层系统的理解和预测能力。在这篇文章中,我们解决这个问题,与极端事件的先进的电导模型(CCENTRAL)的发展,估计极光电导从现场对齐的电流值。已使用非线性回归对同化地图一年的一分钟分辨率输出进行了开发,特别是包括太阳风-磁层-电离层系统的极端驱动时间。该模型还包括利用额外调整来改善极光卵以增强极光电导的规定。已将电离层模型纳入空间天气建模框架的雷德利电离层模型,用于空间天气模拟。本文通过对六个空间天气事件的验证过程,比较了CCED与RIM中现有电导模型的性能。性能分析表明,电离层对地面空间天气预报的反馈总体上有所改善。具体而言,该模型能够改善影响模拟dB/dt和ΔB的电离层电流的预测,从而显著改善dB/dt预测技能。

英文摘要:

Ionospheric conductance is a crucial factor in regulating the closure of magnetospheric field-aligned currents through the ionosphere as Hall and Pedersen currents. Despite its importance in predictive investigations of the magnetosphere - ionosphere coupling, the estimation of ionospheric conductance in the auroral region is precarious in most global first-principles based models. This impreciseness in estimating the auroral conductance impedes both our understanding and predictive capabilities of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system during extreme space weather events. In this article, we address this concern, with the development of an advanced Conductance Model for Extreme Events (CMEE) that estimates the auroral conductance from field aligned current values. CMEE has been developed using nonlinear regression over a year's worth of one-minute resolution output from assimilative maps, specifically including times of extreme driving of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The model also includes provisions to enhance the conductance in the aurora using additional adjustments to refine the auroral oval. CMEE has been incorporated within the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for usage in space weather simulations. This paper compares performance of CMEE against the existing conductance model in RIM, through a validation process for six space weather events. The performance analysis indicates overall improvement in the ionospheric feedback to ground-based space weather forecasts. Specifically, the model is able to improve the prediction of ionospheric currents which impact the simulated dB/dt and ΔB, resulting in substantial improvements in dB/dt predictive skill.

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