空间天气驱动因素的基准预报模型
Benchmarking Forecasting Models for Space Weather Drivers
摘要：
空间天气指数通常用于推动各种地球空间系统的业务预报，包括热层的质量密度和卫星阻力。这些驱动因素是地球空间系统中引起能量流动和沉积的各种过程的代表。中性质量密度预报是近地轨道（LEO）物体运行轨道预报和碰撞避免中的一个主要不确定性。对于强驱动系统，空间天气驱动器预报的准确性对于操作至关重要。美国空军目前在作战环境中使用的高精度卫星阻力模型（HASDM）由四（4）个太阳代理和两（2）个地磁代理驱动。空间环境技术公司（SET）与空间司令部签订合同，为驾驶员提供预报。这项工作执行一个全面的评估的性能的驱动程序预测模型。目的是为今后改进预测模型提供一个基准。使用跨越六（6）年的存档数据集和跨太阳周期24的15，000个预测，我们量化了模型性能的时间统计数据。
英文摘要：
Space weather indices are commonly used to drive operational forecasts of various geospace systems, including the thermosphere for mass density and satellite drag. The drivers serve as proxies for various processes that cause energy flow and deposition in the geospace system. Forecasts of neutral mass density is a major uncertainty in operational orbit prediction and collision avoidance for objects in low earth orbit (LEO). For the strongly driven system, accuracy of space weather driver forecasts is crucial for operations. The High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) currently employed by the United States Air Force in an operational environment is driven by four (4) solar and two (2) geomagnetic proxies. Space Environment Technologies (SET) is contracted by the space command to provide forecasts for the drivers. This work performs a comprehensive assessment for the performance of the driver forecast models. The goal is to provide a benchmark for future improvements of the forecast models. Using an archived data set spanning six (6) years and 15,000 forecasts across solar cycle 24, we quantify the temporal statistics of the model performance.
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