Physics-based model of solar wind stream interaction regions: Interfacing between Multi-VP and 1D MHD for operational forecasting at L1
R. Kieokaew, R. F. Pinto, E. Samara, C. Tao, M. Indurain, B. Lavraud, A. Brunet, V. Génot, A. Rouillard, N. André, S. Bourdarie, C. Katsavrias, F. Darrouzet, B. Grison, I. Daglis
备注：
24 pages, 9 figures. The appendix is available upon request
Our current capability of space weather prediction in the Earth's radiation belts is limited to only an hour in advance using the real-time solar wind monitoring at the Lagrangian L1 point. To mitigate the impacts of space weather on telecommunication satellites, several frameworks were proposed to advance the lead time of the prediction. We develop a prototype pipeline called "Helio1D" to forecast ambient solar wind conditions (speed, density, temperature, tangential magnetic field) at L1 with a lead time of 4 days. This pipeline predicts Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and high-speed streams that can increase high-energy fluxes in the radiation belts. The Helio1D pipeline connects the Multi-VP model, which provides real-time solar wind emergence at 0.14 AU, and a 1D MHD model of solar wind propagation. We benchmark the Helio1D pipeline for solar wind speed against observations for the intervals in 2004 - 2013 and 2017 - 2018. We developed a framework based on the Fast Dynamic Time Warping technique that allows us to continuously compare time-series outputs containing CIRs to observations to measure the pipeline's performance. In particular, we use this framework to calibrate and improve the pipeline's performance for operational forecasting. To provide timing and magnitude uncertainties, we model several solar wind conditions in parallel, for a total of 21 profiles corresponding to the various virtual targets including the Earth. This pipeline can be used to feed real-time, daily solar wind forecasting that aims to predict the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere and the radiation belts.
Global Earth Magnetic Field Modeling and Forecasting with Spherical Harmonics Decomposition
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Reading（雷丁大学）；IUCAA（校际天文学与天体物理学中心）；University of New Hampshire（新罕布什尔大学）；NVIDIA Corporation（英伟达公司）；ASTRA LLC（ASTRA有限责任公司）；Lockheed Martin（洛克希德·马丁公司）；SRI International（SRI国际研究所）
COCONUT, a novel fast-converging MHD model for solar corona simulations: II. Assessing the impact of the input magnetic map on space-weather forecasting at minimum of activity
Deformation of the CME and CME-driven shock due to interaction with the ambient solar wind: I. Modelling with Cone Model
University of Maryland, Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩分校）；NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心）；KU Leuven（荷语鲁汶大学）；Royal Observatory of Belgium（比利时皇家天文台）
