In recent years, space weather research has focused on developing modelling techniques to predict the arrival time and properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth. The aim of this paper is to propose a new modelling technique suitable for the next generation of Space Weather predictive tools that is both efficient and accurate. The aim of the new approach is to provide interplanetary space weather forecasting models with accurate time dependent boundary conditions of erupting magnetic flux ropes in the upper solar corona. To produce boundary conditions, we couple two different modelling techniques, MHD simulations and a quasi-static non-potential evolution model. Both are applied on a spatial domain that covers the entire solar surface. The non-potential model uses a time series of observed synoptic magnetograms to drive the non-potential quasi-static evolution of the coronal magnetic field. This allows us to follow the formation and loss of equilibrium of magnetic flux ropes. Following this a MHD simulation captures the dynamic evolution of the erupting flux rope. The present paper focuses on the MHD simulations that follow the ejection of magnetic flux ropes to 4$R_\odot$. We first propose a technique for specifying the pre-eruptive plasma properties in the corona. Next, time dependent MHD simulations describe the ejection of two magnetic flux ropes, that produce time dependent boundary conditions for the magnetic field and plasma at 4$R_{\odot}$. In the present paper, we show that the dual use of quasi-static non-potential magnetic field simulations and full time dependent MHD simulations can produce realistic inhomogeneous boundary conditions for space weather forecasting tools. Before a fully operational model can be produced there are a number of technical and scientific challenges that still need to be addressed.
Ensemble Modeling of the Solar Wind Flow with Boundary Conditions Governed by Synchronic Photospheric Magnetograms. I. Multi-point Validation in the Inner Heliosphere
Intense but Harmless: Exo-Space Weather Around an M Dwarf with a Single-Hemisphere Dynamo
Peking University（北京大学）；National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院国家空间科学中心）；Leibniz Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam（波茨坦阿斯特拉诺伊莱布尼茨研究所）；University of Massachusetts Lowell（马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校）；Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory（洛克希德·马丁太阳与天体物理实验室）；University of Potsdam（波茨坦大学）；Nanjing University（南京大学）
The JWST weather report: Unravelling the atmospheric variability of isolated worlds using principal component analysis
Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin（都柏林三一学院，都柏林大学）；American Museum of Natural History（美国自然历史博物馆）；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；University of Hertfordshire（赫特福德大学）
