Axelrod's model for the dissemination of culture contains two key factors required to model the process of diffusion of innovations, namely, social influence (i.e., individuals become more similar when they interact) and homophily (i.e., individuals interact preferentially with similar others). The strength of these social influences are controlled by two parameters: $F$, the number of features that characterizes the cultures and $q$, the common number of states each feature can assume. Here we assume that the innovation is a new state of a cultural feature of a single individual -- the innovator -- and study how the innovation spreads through the networks among the individuals. For infinite regular lattices in one (1D) and two dimensions (2D), we find that initially the successful innovation spreads linearly with the time $t$, but in the long-time limit it spreads diffusively ($\sim t^{1/2}$) in 1D and sub-diffusively ($\sim t/\ln t$) in 2D. For finite lattices, the growth curves for the number of adopters are typically concave functions of $t$. For random graphs with a finite number of nodes $N$, we argue that the classical S-shaped growth curves result from a trade-off between the average connectivity $K$ of the graph and the per feature diversity $q$. A large $q$ is needed to reduce the pace of the initial spreading of the innovation and thus delimit the early-adopters stage, whereas a large $K$ is necessary to ensure the onset of the take-off stage at which the number of adopters grows superlinearly with $t$. In an infinite random graph we find that the number of adopters of a successful innovation scales with $t^γ$ with $γ=1$ for $K> 2$ and $1/2 < γ< 1$ for $K=2$. We suggest that the exponent $γ$ may be a useful index to characterize the process of diffusion of successful innovations in diverse scenarios.
Shared opinions are an important feature in the formation of social groups. In this paper, we use the Axelrod model of cultural dissemination to represent opinion-based groups. In the Axelrod model, each agent has a set of features which each holds one of a set of nominally related traits. Survey data, for example, has a similar structure, where each participant answers each of a set of items with responses from a fixed list. We present an alternative method of displaying the Axelrod model by representing it as a bipartite graph, i.e., participants and their responses as separate nodes. This a…
The ways in which an innovation (e.g., new behaviour, idea, technology, product) diffuses among people can determine its success or failure. In this paper, we address the problem of diffusion of innovations over multiplex social networks where the neighbours of a person belong to one or multiple networks (or layers) such as friends, families, or colleagues. To this end, we generalise one of the basic game-theoretic diffusion models, called networked coordination game, for multiplex networks. We present analytical results for this extended model and validate them through a simulation study, fin…
We generalize the classical Bass model of innovation diffusion to include a new class of agents --- Luddites --- that oppose the spread of innovation. Our model also incorporates ignorants, susceptibles, and adopters. When an ignorant and a susceptible meet, the former is converted to a susceptible at a given rate, while a susceptible spontaneously adopts the innovation at a constant rate. In response to the \emph{rate} of adoption, an ignorant may become a Luddite and permanently reject the innovation. Instead of reaching complete adoption, the final state generally consists of a population o…
Innovation diffusion has been studied extensively in a variety of disciplines, including sociology, economics, marketing, ecology, and computer science. Traditional literature on innovation diffusion has been dominated by models of aggregate behavior and trends. However, the agent-based modeling (ABM) paradigm is gaining popularity as it captures agent heterogeneity and enables fine-grained modeling of interactions mediated by social and geographic networks. While most ABM work on innovation diffusion is theoretical, empirically grounded models are increasingly important, particularly in guidi…
We introduce a heterogeneous network structure into the Bass diffusion model, in order to study the diffusion times of innovation or information in networks with a scale-free structure, typical of regions where diffusion is sensitive to geographic and logistic influences (like for instance Alpine regions). We consider both the diffusion peak times of the total population and of the link classes. In the familiar trickle-down processes the adoption curve of the hubs is found to anticipate the total adoption in a predictable way. In a major departure from the standard model, we model a trickle-up…
We present a new model for the diffusion of innovation. Here, the population is segmented into distinct groups. Adoption by a particular group of some cultural product may be inhibited both by large numbers of its own members already having adopted but also, in particular, by members of another group having adopted. Intergroup migration is also permitted. We determine the equilibrium points and carry out stability analysis for the model for a two-group population. We also simulate a discrete time version of the model. Lastly, we present data on tablet use in eight countries from 2012-2016 and …
It is shown that under certain conditions it is possible to model a complex system in a way that leads to results that do not depend on system size. As an example of complex system an innovation diffusion model is considered. In that model a set of individuals (the agents), which are interconnected, must decide if adopt or not an innovation. The agents are connected in a member of the networks family known as small worlds networks (SWN). It is found that for a subfamily of the SWN the saturation time and the form of the adoption curve are invariants respect to the change in the size of the sys…
When multiple innovations compete for adoption, historical chance leading to early advantage can generate lock-in effects that allow suboptimal innovations to succeed at the expense of superior alternatives. Research on the diffusion of innovafacetion has identified many possible sources of early advantage, but these mechanisms can benefit both optimal and suboptimal innovations. This paper moves beyond chance-as-explanation to identify structural principles that systematically impact the likelihood that the optimal strategy will spread. A formal model of innovation diffusion shows that the ne…
Adoption of cultural innovation (e.g., music, beliefs, language) is often geographically correlated, with adopters largely residing within the boundaries of relatively few well-studied, socially significant areas. These cultural regions are often hypothesized to be the result of either (i) identity performance driving the adoption of cultural innovation, or (ii) homophily in the networks underlying diffusion. In this study, we show that demographic identity and network topology are both required to model the diffusion of innovation, as they play complementary roles in producing its spatial pro…
The contagion threshold for diffusion of innovations is defined and calculated in finite graphs (two-dimensional regular lattices, regular random networks (RRNs), and two kinds of scale-free networks (SFNs)) with and without the bilingual option. Without the bilingual option, degree inhomogeneity and clustering enhance the contagion threshold in non-regular networks except for those with an unrealistically small average degree. It is explained by the friendship paradox and detour effect. We found the general boundary of the cost that makes the bilingual option effective. With a low-cost biling…
Social identities are among the key factors driving behavior in complex societies. Signals of social identity are known to influence individual behaviors in the adoption of innovations. Yet the population-level consequences of identity signaling on the diffusion of innovations are largely unknown. Here we use both analytical and agent-based modeling to consider the spread of a beneficial innovation in a structured population in which there exist two groups who are averse to being mistaken for each other. We investigate the dynamics of adoption and consider the role of structural factors such a…
The dynamics of urban systems can be understood from an evolutionary perspective, in some sense extending biological and cultural evolution. Models for systems of cities implementing elementary evolutionary processes remain however to be investigated. We propose here such a model for urban dynamics at the macroscopic scale, in which the diffusion of innovations between cities captures transformation processes (mutations) and transmission processes (diffusion), using two coupled spatial interaction models. Explorations of the model on synthetic systems of cities show the role of spatial interac…
Innovation diffusion in the networked population is an essential process that drives the progress of human society. Despite the recent advances in network science, a fundamental understanding of network properties that regulate such processes is still lacking. Focusing on an innovation diffusion model with pairwise transmission and macro-level social influence, i.e., more adopters in the networked population lead to a higher adoption tendency among the remaining individuals, we observe discontinuous phase transitions when the influence is sufficiently strong. Through extensive analyses of a la…
In this work, the aim is to study the diffusion of innovation of two competing products. The main focus has been to understand the effects of the competitive dynamic market on the diffusion of innovation. The global smartphone operating system sales are chosen as an example. The availability of the sales and the number of users data, as well as the predictions for the future number of users, make the smartphone diffusion a new laboratory to test the innovation of diffusion models for the competitive markets. In this work, the Bass model and its extensions which incorporate the competition betw…
Successful innovations achieve large geographical coverage by spreading across settlements and distances. For decades, spatial diffusion has been argued to take place along the urban hierarchy such that the innovation first spreads from large to medium cities then later from medium to small cities. Yet, the role of geographical distance, the other major factor of spatial diffusion, was difficult to identify in hierarchical diffusion due to missing data on spreading events. In this paper, we exploit spatial patterns of individual invitations on a social media platform sent from registered users…
The urban-rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million frie…
Haynes et al. (1977) derived a nonlinear differential equation to determine the spread of innovations within a social network across space and time. This model depends upon the imitators and the innovators within the social system, where the imitators respond to internal influences, whilst the innovators react to external factors. Here, this differential equation is applied to simulate the uptake of a low-carbon technology (LCT) within a local electricity network situated in the UK. This network comprises of many households that are assigned to certain feeders. Firstly, travelling wave solutio…
Diffusion of innovation can be interpreted as a social spreading phenomena governed by the impact of media and social interactions. Although these mechanisms have been identified by quantitative theories, their role and relative importance are not entirely understood, since empirical verification has so far been hindered by the lack of appropriate data. Here we analyse a dataset recording the spreading dynamics of the world's largest Voice over Internet Protocol service to empirically support the assumptions behind models of social contagion. We show that the rate of spontaneous service adopti…
The present work investigates clustering of a graph-based representation of industrial connections derived from international trade data by Hidalgo et al (2007) and confirms existence of around ten industrial clusters that are reasonably consistent with expected historical patterns of diffusion of innovation and technology. This supports the notion that technological development occurs in sequential innovation waves. The clustering method developed in this work follows conceptual ideas of Lambiotte and Barahona (2009), who suggested to use random walk to assess a hierarchical structure of netw…
