arXiv 1704.035972017-04econ.GNphysics.soc-phq-fin.ECq-fin.GN

探索技术进步与创新扩散之间的关系：一项实证检验

Exploring the relationship between technological improvement and innovation diffusion: An empirical test

Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；SUTD-MIT International Design Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（新加坡科技设计大学-麻省理工学院国际设计中心）

JongRoul Woo, Christopher L. Magee

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AI总结：

本文通过实证检验探讨技术进步如何影响创新扩散速度，发现技术进步快的领域产品扩散更快，且市场饱和是后期扩散减慢的原因。

摘要：

不同技术领域具有显著不同的性能改进速度。以往理论表明，这种差异应影响不同技术产品的扩散速度，因为在扩散过程中性能改进会增加产品的吸引力。然而，尚未有广泛的实证研究检验这一效应并澄清其原因。本文回顾了理论基础，并在多种产品及其底层技术上进行了实证检验。18种不同扩散产品的结果显示出预期的关系——技术进步快的领域产品扩散更快，且具有显著的统计意义。实证检验还表明，技术进步在扩散后期并未减慢，这表明后期扩散减慢是由于市场饱和效应，而非性能改进减慢。

英文摘要：

Different technological domains have significantly different rates of performance improvement. Prior theory indicates that such differing rates should influence the relative speed of diffusion of the products embodying the different technologies since improvement in performance during the diffusion process increases the desirability of the product diffusing. However, there has not been a broad empirical attempt to examine this effect and to clarify the underlying cause. Therefore, this paper reviews the theoretical basis and focuses upon empirical tests of this effect across multiple products and their underlying technologies. The results for 18 different diffusing products show the expected relationship-faster diffusion for products based on more rapidly improving technological domains- between technological improvement and diffusion with strong statistical significance. The empirical examination also demonstrates that technological improvement does not slow down in the latter parts of diffusion when penetration does slow down. This finding indicates that diffusion slow down in the latter stages is due to market saturation effects and is not due to slowdown of performance improvement.

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