需求拉动、技术推动和技术变革的方向
Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change
摘要：
本文研究了1977-2012年美国307个6位数制造业的需求拉动（DP）和技术推动（TP）对增长、创新以及技术变革的要素偏差的影响。本文将TP和DP分为两种类型：（1）DP和TP是市场需求冲击拉动创新、创新推动市场增长时的层间溢出。(2)如果下游用户触发上游创新和增长，则会产生层内DP，而TP效应则会从上游行业溢出到下游行业。研究结果支持层间和层内TP：上游产业的创新溢出推动市场增长和创新。在市场内部，上游供应冲击刺激增长，但这种影响因行业而异。DP不受支持，但显示出有利于劳动力的因素偏差，而TP则转向非生产性工作。2000年后的结果最为强劲，并揭示了最近技术变革的驱动因素及其因素偏差。
英文摘要：
This paper studies the impact of Demand-pull (DP) and Technology-push (TP) on growth, innovation, and the factor bias of technological change in a two-layer network of input-output (market) and patent citation (innovation) links among 307 6-digit US manufacturing industries in 1977-2012. Two types of TP and DP are distinguished: (1) DP and TP are between-layer spillovers when market demand shocks pull innovation and innovation pushes market growth. (2) Within-layer DP arises if downstream users trigger upstream innovation and growth, while TP effects spill over from up- to downstream industries. The results support between- and within-layer TP: Innovation spillovers from upstream industries drive market growth and innovation. Within the market, upstream supply shocks stimulate growth, but this effect differs across industries. DP is not supported but shows a factor bias favoring labor, while TP comes with a shift towards non-production work. The results are strongest after the 2000s and shed light on the drivers of recent technological change and its factor bias.
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