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arXiv 1505.00720cs.GT
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学习代理的计量经济学

Econometrics for Learning Agents

Denis Nekipelov, Vasilis Syrgkanis, Eva Tardos

摘要:

本文的主要目标是发展一个理论的推断,从观察到的数据,在广义第二价格拍卖的球员估价不依赖于纳什均衡假设。经济学中现有的从数据中推断代理价值的工作依赖于这样的假设,即所有参与者策略都是观察到的其他参与者的最佳对策,即它们构成纳什均衡。在本文中,我们展示了如何依赖于一个较弱的假设来进行推理:假设玩家正在使用某种形式的无悔学习。近年来,学习结果作为纳什均衡的一个有吸引力的替代品出现在分析游戏结果中,对尚未达到稳定均衡的玩家进行建模,而是使用算法学习,旨在从以前的观察中学习最佳的游戏方式。在本文中,我们将展示如何推断使用算法学习策略的球员的价值观。这样的推断是我们在拍卖数据上测试任何学习理论行为模型之前重要的第一步。我们将我们的技术应用于微软赞助搜索广告拍卖系统的数据集。

英文摘要:

The main goal of this paper is to develop a theory of inference of player valuations from observed data in the generalized second price auction without relying on the Nash equilibrium assumption. Existing work in Economics on inferring agent values from data relies on the assumption that all participant strategies are best responses of the observed play of other players, i.e. they constitute a Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we show how to perform inference relying on a weaker assumption instead: assuming that players are using some form of no-regret learning. Learning outcomes emerged in recent years as an attractive alternative to Nash equilibrium in analyzing game outcomes, modeling players who haven't reached a stable equilibrium, but rather use algorithmic learning, aiming to learn the best way to play from previous observations. In this paper we show how to infer values of players who use algorithmic learning strategies. Such inference is an important first step before we move to testing any learning theoretic behavioral model on auction data. We apply our techniques to a dataset from Microsoft's sponsored search ad auction system.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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