We consider the problem of bid prediction in repeated auctions and evaluate the performance of econometric methods for learning agents using a dataset from a mainstream sponsored search auction marketplace. Sponsored search auctions is a billion dollar industry and the main source of revenue of several tech giants. A critical problem in optimizing such marketplaces is understanding how bidders will react to changes in the auction design. We propose the use of no-regret based econometrics for bid prediction, modeling players as no-regret learners with respect to a utility function, unknown to the analyst. We propose new econometric approaches to simultaneously learn the parameters of a player's utility and her learning rule, and apply these methods in a real-world dataset from the BingAds sponsored search auction marketplace. We show that the no-regret econometric methods perform comparable to state-of-the-art time-series machine learning methods when there is no co-variate shift, but significantly outperform machine learning methods when there is a co-variate shift between the training and test periods. This portrays the importance of using structural econometric approaches in predicting how players will respond to changes in the market. Moreover, we show that among structural econometric methods, approaches based on no-regret learning outperform more traditional, equilibrium-based, econometric methods that assume that players continuously best-respond to competition. Finally, we demonstrate how the prediction performance of the no-regret learning algorithms can be further improved by considering bidders who optimize a utility function with a visibility bias component.
With the advent and increasing consolidation of e-commerce, digital advertising has very recently replaced traditional advertising as the main marketing force in the economy. In the past four years, a particularly important development in the digital advertising industry is the shift from second-price auctions to first-price auctions for online display ads. This shift immediately motivated the intellectually challenging question of how to bid in first-price auctions, because unlike in second-price auctions, bidding one's private value truthfully is no longer optimal. Following a series of rece…
We construct prior-free auctions with constant-factor approximation guarantees with ordered bidders, in both unlimited and limited supply settings. We compare the expected revenue of our auctions on a bid vector to the monotone price benchmark, the maximum revenue that can be obtained from a bid vector using supply-respecting prices that are nonincreasing in the bidder ordering and bounded above by the second-highest bid. As a consequence, our auctions are simultaneously near-optimal in a wide range of Bayesian multi-unit environments.
We study the online learning problem of a bidder who participates in repeated auctions. With the goal of maximizing his T-period payoff, the bidder determines the optimal allocation of his budget among his bids for $K$ goods at each period. As a bidding strategy, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm, inspired by the dynamic programming approach to the knapsack problem. The proposed algorithm, referred to as dynamic programming on discrete set (DPDS), achieves a regret order of $O(\sqrt{T\log{T}})$. By showing that the regret is lower bounded by $Ω(\sqrt{T})$ for any strategy, we conclude tha…
Recently the online advertising market has exhibited a gradual shift from second-price auctions to first-price auctions. Although there has been a line of works concerning online bidding strategies in first-price auctions, it still remains open how to handle budget constraints in the problem. In the present paper, we initiate the study for a buyer with budgets to learn online bidding strategies in repeated first-price auctions. We propose an RL-based bidding algorithm against the optimal non-anticipating strategy under stationary competition. Our algorithm obtains $\widetilde O(\sqrt T)$-regre…
We study a class of manipulations in combinatorial auctions where bidders fundamentally misrepresent what goods they are interested in. Prior work has largely assumed that bidders only submit bids on their bundles of interest, which we call simple bidding: strategizing over the bid amounts, but not the bundle identities. However, we show that there exists an entire class of auction instances for which simple bids are never optimal in Bayes-Nash equilibrium, always being strictly dominated by complex bids (where bidders bid on goods they are not interested in). We show this result for the two m…
In quasi-proportional auctions, the allocation is shared among bidders in proportion to their weighted bids. The auctioneer selects a bid weight function, and bidders know the weight function when they bid. In this note, we analyze how weight functions that are exponential in the bid affect bidder behavior. We show that exponential weight functions have a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium, we characterize bids at an equilibrium, and we compare it to an equilibrium for power weight functions.
Innovative auction methods can be exploited to increase profits, with Shubik's famous "dollar auction" perhaps being the most widely known example. Recently, some mainstream e-commerce web sites have apparently achieved the same end on a much broader scale, by using "pay-per-bid" auctions to sell items, from video games to bars of gold. In these auctions, bidders incur a cost for placing each bid in addition to (or sometimes in lieu of) the winner's final purchase cost. Thus even when a winner's purchase cost is a small fraction of the item's intrinsic value, the auctioneer can still profit ha…
Since 2019, most ad exchanges and sell-side platforms (SSPs), in the online advertising industry, shifted from second to first price auctions. Due to the fundamental difference between these auctions, demand-side platforms (DSPs) have had to update their bidding strategies to avoid bidding unnecessarily high and hence overpaying. Bid shading was proposed to adjust the bid price intended for second-price auctions, in order to balance cost and winning probability in a first-price auction setup. In this study, we introduce a novel deep distribution network for optimal bidding in both open (non-ce…
Online auctions play a central role in online advertising, and are one of the main reasons for the industry's scalability and growth. With great changes in how auctions are being organized, such as changing the second- to first-price auction type, advertisers and demand platforms are compelled to adapt to a new volatile environment. Bid shading is a known technique for preventing overpaying in auction systems that can help maintain the strategy equilibrium in first-price auctions, tackling one of its greatest drawbacks. In this study, we propose a machine learning approach of modeling optimal …
Sealed-bid Auctions on Blockchain with Timed Commitment Outsourcing
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）
Second-price auctions with deposits are frequently used in blockchain environments. An auction takes place on-chain: bidders deposit an amount that fully covers their bid (but possibly exceeds it) in a smart contract. The deposit is used as insurance against bidders not honoring their bid if they win. The deposit, but not the bid, is publicly observed during the bidding phase of the auction. The visibility of deposits can fundamentally change the strategic structure of the auction if bidding happens sequentially: Bidding is costly since deposit are costly to make. Thus, deposits can be used as…
Simultaneous ascending auctions present agents with the exposure problem: bidding to acquire a bundle risks the possibility of obtaining an undesired subset of the goods. Auction theory provides little guidance for dealing with this problem. We present a new family of decisiontheoretic bidding strategies that use probabilistic predictions of final prices. We focus on selfconfirming price distribution predictions, which by definition turn out to be correct when all agents bid decision-theoretically based on them. Bidding based on these is provably not optimal in general, but our experimental ev…
We consider the problem of the optimization of bidding strategies in prior-dependent revenue-maximizing auctions, when the seller fixes the reserve prices based on the bid distributions. Our study is done in the setting where one bidder is strategic. Using a variational approach, we study the complexity of the original objective and we introduce a relaxation of the objective functional in order to use gradient descent methods. Our approach is simple, general and can be applied to various value distributions and revenue-maximizing mechanisms. The new strategies we derive yield massive uplifts c…
Many popular search engines run an auction to determine the placement of advertisements next to search results. Current auctions at Google and Yahoo! let advertisers specify a single amount as their bid in the auction. This bid is interpreted as the maximum amount the advertiser is willing to pay per click on its ad. When search queries arrive, the bids are used to rank the ads linearly on the search result page. The advertisers pay for each user who clicks on their ad, and the amount charged depends on the bids of all the advertisers participating in the auction. In order to be effective, adv…
Auctions have been proposed as a way to provide economic incentives for primary users to dynamically allocate unused spectrum to other users in need of it. Previously proposed schemes do not take into account the fact that the power constraints of users might prevent them from transmitting their bid prices to the auctioneer with high precision and that transmitted bid prices must travel through a noisy channel. These schemes also have very high overheads which cannot be accommodated in wireless standards. We propose auction schemes where a central clearing authority auctions spectrum to users …
We study revenue optimization learning algorithms for repeated second-price auctions with reserve where a seller interacts with multiple strategic bidders each of which holds a fixed private valuation for a good and seeks to maximize his expected future cumulative discounted surplus. We propose a novel algorithm that has strategic regret upper bound of $O(\log\log T)$ for worst-case valuations. This pricing is based on our novel transformation that upgrades an algorithm designed for the setup with a single buyer to the multi-buyer case. We provide theoretical guarantees on the ability of a tra…
The connection between games and no-regret algorithms has been widely studied in the literature. A fundamental result is that when all players play no-regret strategies, this produces a sequence of actions whose time-average is a coarse-correlated equilibrium of the game. However, much less is known about equilibrium selection in the case that multiple equilibria exist. In this work, we study the convergence of no-regret bidding algorithms in auctions. Besides being of theoretical interest, bidding dynamics in auctions is an important question from a practical viewpoint as well. We study repea…
The recent online platforms propose multiple items for bidding. The state of the art, however, is limited to the analysis of one item auction without resubmission. In this paper we study multi-item lowest unique bid auctions (LUBA) with resubmission in discrete bid spaces under budget constraints. We show that the game does not have pure Bayes-Nash equilibria (except in very special cases). However, at least one mixed Bayes-Nash equilibria exists for arbitrary number of bidders and items. The equilibrium is explicitly computed for two-bidder setup with resubmission possibilities. In the genera…
Auction theory traditionally assumes that bidders' valuation distributions are known to the auctioneer, such as in the celebrated, revenue-optimal Myerson auction. However, this theory does not describe how the auctioneer comes to possess this information. Recently, Cole and Roughgarden [2014] showed that an approximation based on a finite sample of independent draws from each bidder's distribution is sufficient to produce a near-optimal auction. In this work, we consider the problem of learning bidders' valuation distributions from much weaker forms of observations. Specifically, we consider …
Small operators who take part in secondary wireless spectrum markets typically have strict budget limits. In this paper, we study the bidding problem of a budget constrained operator in repeated secondary spectrum auctions. In existing truthful auctions, truthful bidding is the optimal strategy of a bidder. However, budget limits impact bidding behaviors and make bidding decisions complicated, since bidders may behave differently to avoid running out of money. We formulate the problem as a dynamic auction game between operators, where knowledge of other operators is limited due to the distribu…
Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is an upcoming methodology that is considered to have advantages over the traditional decision theoretic and game theoretic approaches. ARA solutions for first-price sealed-bid (FPSB) auctions have been found but only under strong assumptions which make the model somewhat unrealistic. In this paper, we use ARA methodology to model FPSB auctions using more realistic assumptions. We define a new utility function that considers bidders' wealth, we assume a reserve price and find solutions not only for risk-neutral but also for risk-averse as well as risk-seeking bi…
We analyze the problem of how to optimally bid for ad spaces in online ad auctions. For this we consider the general case of multiple ad campaigns with overlapping targeting criteria. In our analysis we first characterize the structure of an optimal bidding strategy. In particular, we show that an optimal bidding strategies decomposes the problem into disjoint sets of campaigns and targeting groups. In addition, we show that pure bidding strategies that use only a single bid value for each campaign are not optimal when the supply curves are not continuous. For this case, we derive a lower-boun…
In this paper, we study behavior of bidders in an experimental launch of a new advertising auction platform by Zillow, as Zillow switched from negotiated contracts to using auctions in several geographically isolated markets. A unique feature of this experiment is that the bidders in this market are real estate agents that bid on their own behalf, not using third-party intermediaries. To help bidders, Zillow also provided a recommendation tool that suggested a bid for each bidder. Our main focus in this paper is on the decisions of bidders whether or not to adopt the platform-provided bid reco…
We study the design of mechanisms in combinatorial auction domains. We focus on settings where the auction is repeated, motivated by auctions for licenses or advertising space. We consider models of agent behaviour in which they either apply common learning techniques to minimize the regret of their bidding strategies, or apply short-sighted best-response strategies. We ask: when can a black-box approximation algorithm for the base auction problem be converted into a mechanism that approximately preserves the original algorithm's approximation factor on average over many iterations? We present…
In sponsored search, a number of advertising slots is available on a search results page, and have to be allocated among a set of advertisers competing to display an ad on the page. This gives rise to a bipartite matching market that is typically cleared by the way of an automated auction. Several auction mechanisms have been proposed, with variants of the Generalized Second Price (GSP) being widely used in practice. A rich body of work on bipartite matching markets builds upon the stable marriage model of Gale and Shapley and the assignment model of Shapley and Shubik. We apply insights from …
Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford University（斯坦福大学斯坦福商学院）
Motivated by online advertising auctions, we study auction design in repeated auctions played by simple Artificial Intelligence algorithms (Q-learning). We find that first-price auctions with no additional feedback lead to tacit-collusive outcomes (bids lower than values), while second-price auctions do not. We show that the difference is driven by the incentive in first-price auctions to outbid opponents by just one bid increment. This facilitates re-coordination on low bids after a phase of experimentation. We also show that providing information about lowest bid to win, as introduced by Goo…
Learning to Bid Optimally and Efficiently in Adversarial First-price Auctions
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the Center for Data Science, New York University（Courant数学科学研究所和数据科学中心，纽约大学）；Stern School of Business, New York University（商学院，纽约大学）；Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University（电气工程系，斯坦福大学）；Yahoo! Research at Verizon Media（Verizon Media的Yahoo!研究）
A large fraction of online advertisement is sold via repeated second price auctions. In these auctions, the reserve price is the main tool for the auctioneer to boost revenues. In this work, we investigate the following question: Can changing the reserve prices based on the previous bids improve the revenue of the auction, taking into account the long-term incentives and strategic behavior of the bidders? We show that if the distribution of the valuations is known and satisfies the standard regularity assumptions, then the optimal mechanism has a constant reserve. However, when there is uncert…
In lowest unique bid auctions, $N$ players bid for an item. The winner is whoever places the \emph{lowest} bid, provided that it is also unique. We use a grand canonical approach to derive an analytical expression for the equilibrium distribution of strategies. We then study the properties of the solution as a function of the mean number of players, and compare them with a large dataset of internet auctions. The theory agrees with the data with striking accuracy for small population size $N$, while for larger $N$ a qualitatively different distribution is observed. We interpret this result as t…
