A new non parametric approach to the problem of testing the independence of two random process is developed. The test statistic is the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), which was used previously in testing independence for i.i.d pairs of variables. The asymptotic behaviour of HSIC is established when computed from samples drawn from random processes. It is shown that earlier bootstrap procedures which worked in the i.i.d. case will fail for random processes, and an alternative consistent estimate of the p-values is proposed. Tests on artificial data and real-world Forex data indicate that the new test procedure discovers dependence which is missed by linear approaches, while the earlier bootstrap procedure returns an elevated number of false positives. The code is available online: https://github.com/kacperChwialkowski/HSIC .
A statistical test of independence may be constructed using the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) as a test statistic. The HSIC is defined as the distance between the embedding of the joint distribution, and the embedding of the product of the marginals, in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). It has previously been shown that when the kernel used in defining the joint embedding is characteristic (that is, the embedding of the joint distribution to the feature space is injective), then the HSIC-based test is consistent. In particular, it is sufficient for the product of kerne…
Measuring conditional independence is one of the important tasks in statistical inference and is fundamental in causal discovery, feature selection, dimensionality reduction, Bayesian network learning, and others. In this work, we explore the connection between conditional independence measures induced by distances on a metric space and reproducing kernels associated with a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). For certain distance and kernel pairs, we show the distance-based conditional independence measures to be equivalent to that of kernel-based measures. On the other hand, we also show…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Conditional independence testing is an important problem, especially in Bayesian network learning and causal discovery. Due to the curse of dimensionality, testing for conditional independence of continuous variables is particularly challenging. We propose a Kernel-based Conditional Independence test (KCI-test), by constructing an appropriate test statistic and deriving its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of conditional independence. The proposed method is computationally efficient and easy to implement. Experimental results show that it outperforms other methods, especially …
This work proposes to learn fair low-rank tensor decompositions by regularizing the Canonical Polyadic Decomposition factorization with the kernel Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (KHSIC). It is shown, theoretically and empirically, that a small KHSIC between a latent factor and the sensitive features guarantees approximate statistical parity. The proposed algorithm surpasses the state-of-the-art algorithm, FATR (Zhu et al., 2018), in controlling the trade-off between fairness and residual fit on synthetic and real data sets.
Representations of probability measures in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces provide a flexible framework for fully nonparametric hypothesis tests of independence, which can capture any type of departure from independence, including nonlinear associations and multivariate interactions. However, these approaches come with an at least quadratic computational cost in the number of observations, which can be prohibitive in many applications. Arguably, it is exactly in such large-scale datasets that capturing any type of dependence is of interest, so striking a favourable tradeoff between computati…
CREST（法国 Crest 研究中心）；ENSAE（法国国家统计与经济管理学院）；Facebook AI Research（脸书人工智能研究院）；Université Paris-Dauphine（巴黎多芬大学）；Technion（以色列理工学院）
We propose a new conditional dependence measure and a statistical test for conditional independence. The measure is based on the difference between analytic kernel embeddings of two well-suited distributions evaluated at a finite set of locations. We obtain its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of conditional independence and design a consistent statistical test from it. We conduct a series of experiments showing that our new test outperforms state-of-the-art methods both in terms of type-I and type-II errors even in the high dimensional setting.
Constraint-based causal discovery (CCD) algorithms require fast and accurate conditional independence (CI) testing. The Kernel Conditional Independence Test (KCIT) is currently one of the most popular CI tests in the non-parametric setting, but many investigators cannot use KCIT with large datasets because the test scales cubicly with sample size. We therefore devise two relaxations called the Randomized Conditional Independence Test (RCIT) and the Randomized conditional Correlation Test (RCoT) which both approximate KCIT by utilizing random Fourier features. In practice, both of the proposed …
A wild bootstrap method for nonparametric hypothesis tests based on kernel distribution embeddings is proposed. This bootstrap method is used to construct provably consistent tests that apply to random processes, for which the naive permutation-based bootstrap fails. It applies to a large group of kernel tests based on V-statistics, which are degenerate under the null hypothesis, and non-degenerate elsewhere. To illustrate this approach, we construct a two-sample test, an instantaneous independence test and a multiple lag independence test for time series. In experiments, the wild bootstrap gi…
We introduce a general non-parametric independence test between right-censored survival times and covariates, which may be multivariate. Our test statistic has a dual interpretation, first in terms of the supremum of a potentially infinite collection of weight-indexed log-rank tests, with weight functions belonging to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) of functions; and second, as the norm of the difference of embeddings of certain finite measures into the RKHS, similar to the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) test-statistic. We study the asymptotic properties of the test, f…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；École Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）
A new computationally efficient dependence measure, and an adaptive statistical test of independence, are proposed. The dependence measure is the difference between analytic embeddings of the joint distribution and the product of the marginals, evaluated at a finite set of locations (features). These features are chosen so as to maximize a lower bound on the test power, resulting in a test that is data-efficient, and that runs in linear time (with respect to the sample size n). The optimized features can be interpreted as evidence to reject the null hypothesis, indicating regions in the joint …
We propose a nonparametric test of independence, termed optHSIC, between a covariate and a right-censored lifetime. Because the presence of censoring creates a challenge in applying the standard permutation-based testing approaches, we use optimal transport to transform the censored dataset into an uncensored one, while preserving the relevant dependencies. We then apply a permutation test using the kernel-based dependence measure as a statistic to the transformed dataset. The type 1 error is proven to be correct in the case where censoring is independent of the covariate. Experiments indicate…
Kernel dependence measures yield accurate estimates of nonlinear relations between random variables, and they are also endorsed with solid theoretical properties and convergence rates. Besides, the empirical estimates are easy to compute in closed form just involving linear algebra operations. However, they are hampered by two important problems: the high computational cost involved, as two kernel matrices of the sample size have to be computed and stored, and the interpretability of the measure, which remains hidden behind the implicit feature map. We here address these two issues. We introdu…
Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting
Department of Computer Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada（不列颠哥伦比亚大学计算机科学系，温哥华，加拿大）；Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute, Edmonton, Canada（阿尔伯塔机器智能研究所，爱德蒙顿，加拿大）
We investigate the problem of testing whether $d$ random variables, which may or may not be continuous, are jointly (or mutually) independent. Our method builds on ideas of the two variable Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC) but allows for an arbitrary number of variables. We embed the $d$-dimensional joint distribution and the product of the marginals into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and define the $d$-variable Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (dHSIC) as the squared distance between the embeddings. In the population case, the value of dHSIC is zero if and only if the $…
Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), also called energy distance or N-distance in statistics and Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC), specifically distance covariance in statistics, are among the most popular and successful approaches to quantify the difference and independence of random variables, respectively. Thanks to their kernel-based foundations, MMD and HSIC are applicable on a wide variety of domains. Despite their tremendous success, quite little is known about when HSIC characterizes independence and when MMD with tensor product kernel can discriminate probability distributions…
Development of metrics for structural data-generating mechanisms is fundamental in machine learning and the related fields. In this paper, we give a general framework to construct metrics on random nonlinear dynamical systems, defined with the Perron-Frobenius operators in vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (vvRKHSs). We employ vvRKHSs to design mathematically manageable metrics and also to introduce operator-valued kernels, which enables us to handle randomness in systems. Our metric provides an extension of the existing metrics for deterministic systems, and gives a specificatio…
The paper presents new metrics to quantify and test for (i) the equality of distributions and (ii) the independence between two high-dimensional random vectors. We show that the energy distance based on the usual Euclidean distance cannot completely characterize the homogeneity of two high-dimensional distributions in the sense that it only detects the equality of means and the traces of covariance matrices in the high-dimensional setup. We propose a new class of metrics which inherits the desirable properties of the energy distance and maximum mean discrepancy/(generalized) distance covarianc…
University of Illinois at Chicago（伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校）；Adobe Research（奥多比研究院）
Independence testing plays a central role in statistical and causal inference from observational data. Standard independence tests assume that the data samples are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) but that assumption is violated in many real-world datasets and applications centered on relational systems. This work examines the problem of estimating independence in data drawn from relational systems by defining sufficient representations for the sets of observations influencing individual instances. Specifically, we define marginal and conditional independence tests for relation…
Constraint based causal structure learning for point processes require empirical tests of local independence. Existing tests require strong model assumptions, e.g. that the true data generating model is a Hawkes process with no latent confounders. Even when restricting attention to Hawkes processes, latent confounders are a major technical difficulty because a marginalized process will generally not be a Hawkes process itself. We introduce an expansion similar to Volterra expansions as a tool to represent marginalized intensities. Our main theoretical result is that such expansions can approxi…
Northeastern University（东北大学）；Philips Research North America（飞利浦北美研究院）
The Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) is a kernel dependence measure that has applications in various aspects of machine learning. Conveniently, the objectives of different dimensionality reduction applications using HSIC often reduce to the same optimization problem. However, the nonconvexity of the objective function arising from non-linear kernels poses a serious challenge to optimization efficiency and limits the potential of HSIC-based formulations. As a result, only linear kernels have been computationally tractable in practice. This paper proposes a spectral-based optimizati…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；London School of Economics and Political Science（伦敦政治经济学院）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
We discuss how MultiFIT, the Multiscale Fisher's Independence Test for Multivariate Dependence proposed by Gorsky and Ma (2022), compares to existing linear-time kernel tests based on the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC). We highlight the fact that the levels of the kernel tests at any finite sample size can be controlled exactly, as it is the case with the level of MultiFIT. In our experiments, we observe some of the performance limitations of MultiFIT in terms of test power.
In nonparametric independence testing, we observe i.i.d.\ data $\{(X_i,Y_i)\}_{i=1}^n$, where $X \in \mathcal{X}, Y \in \mathcal{Y}$ lie in any general spaces, and we wish to test the null that $X$ is independent of $Y$. Modern test statistics such as the kernel Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) and Distance Covariance (dCov) have intractable null distributions due to the degeneracy of the underlying U-statistics. Thus, in practice, one often resorts to using permutation testing, which provides a nonasymptotic guarantee at the expense of recalculating the quadratic-time statistics …
We consider settings in which the data of interest correspond to pairs of ordered times, e.g, the birth times of the first and second child, the times at which a new user creates an account and makes the first purchase on a website, and the entry and survival times of patients in a clinical trial. In these settings, the two times are not independent (the second occurs after the first), yet it is still of interest to determine whether there exists significant dependence {\em beyond} their ordering in time. We refer to this notion as "quasi-(in)dependence". For instance, in a clinical trial, to …
Signature Kernel Conditional Independence Tests in Causal Discovery for Stochastic Processes
Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Helmholtz Munich（慕尼黑亥姆霍兹中心）；Munich Center for Machine Learning（慕尼黑机器学习中心）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Lund University（隆德大学）；Imperial College London（伦敦帝国学院）
The multiresolution Gaussian process (GP) has gained increasing attention as a viable approach towards improving the quality of approximations in GPs that scale well to large-scale data. Most of the current constructions assume full independence across resolutions. This assumption simplifies the inference, but it underestimates the uncertainties in transitioning from one resolution to another. This in turn results in models which are prone to overfitting in the sense of excessive sensitivity to the chosen resolution, and predictions which are non-smooth at the boundaries. Our contribution is a…
We formulate and analyze a graphical model selection method for inferring the conditional independence graph of a high-dimensional nonstationary Gaussian random process (time series) from a finite-length observation. The observed process samples are assumed uncorrelated over time and having a time-varying marginal distribution. The selection method is based on testing conditional variances obtained for small subsets of process components. This allows to cope with the high-dimensional regime, where the sample size can be (drastically) smaller than the process dimension. We characterize the requ…
This paper deals with the problem of nonparametric independence testing, a fundamental decision-theoretic problem that asks if two arbitrary (possibly multivariate) random variables $X,Y$ are independent or not, a question that comes up in many fields like causality and neuroscience. While quantities like correlation of $X,Y$ only test for (univariate) linear independence, natural alternatives like mutual information of $X,Y$ are hard to estimate due to a serious curse of dimensionality. A recent approach, avoiding both issues, estimates norms of an \textit{operator} in Reproducing Kernel Hilb…
This paper introduces the \textit{weighted partial copula} function for testing conditional independence. The proposed test procedure results from these two ingredients: (i) the test statistic is an explicit Cramer-von Mises transformation of the \textit{weighted partial copula}, (ii) the regions of rejection are computed using a bootstrap procedure which mimics conditional independence by generating samples from the product measure of the estimated conditional marginals. Under conditional independence, the weak convergence of the \textit{weighted partial copula proces}s is established when th…
We propose a new multivariate dependency measure. It is obtained by considering a Gaussian kernel based distance between the copula transform of the given d-dimensional distribution and the uniform copula and then appropriately normalizing it. The resulting measure is shown to satisfy a number of desirable properties. A nonparametric estimate is proposed for this dependency measure and its properties (finite sample as well as asymptotic) are derived. Some comparative studies of the proposed dependency measure estimate with some widely used dependency measure estimates on artificial datasets ar…
Conditional independence testing is a fundamental problem underlying causal discovery and a particularly challenging task in the presence of nonlinear and high-dimensional dependencies. Here a fully non-parametric test for continuous data based on conditional mutual information combined with a local permutation scheme is presented. Through a nearest neighbor approach, the test efficiently adapts also to non-smooth distributions due to strongly nonlinear dependencies. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the test reliably simulates the null distribution even for small sample sizes and with hi…
Associating genetic markers with a multidimensional phenotype is an important yet challenging problem. In this work, we establish the equivalence between two popular methods: kernel-machine regression (KMR), and kernel distance covariance (KDC). KMR is a semiparametric regression frameworks that models the covariate effects parametrically, while the genetic markers are considered non-parametrically. KDC represents a class of methods that includes distance covariance (DC) and Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), which are nonparametric tests of independence. We show the equivalence be…
Determinantal point process have recently been used as models in machine learning and this has raised questions regarding the characterizations of conditional independence. In this paper we investigate characterizations of conditional independence. We describe some conditional independencies through the conditions on the kernel of a determinantal point process, and show many can be obtained using the graph induced by a kernel of the $L$-ensemble.
Several recent trends in machine learning theory and practice, from the design of state-of-the-art Gaussian Process to the convergence analysis of deep neural nets (DNNs) under stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have found it fruitful to study wide random neural networks. Central to these approaches are certain scaling limits of such networks. We unify these results by introducing a notion of a straightline \emph{tensor program} that can express most neural network computations, and we characterize its scaling limit when its tensors are large and randomized. From our framework follows (1) the …
The Minimax Rate of HSIC Estimation for Translation-Invariant Kernels
Institute for Program Structures and Data Organization（程序结构与数据组织研究所）；Karlsruhe Institute of Technology（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）；Department of Statistics（统计系）；London School of Economics（伦敦政治经济学院）
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；The Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）
We provide a unifying framework linking two classes of statistics used in two-sample and independence testing: on the one hand, the energy distances and distance covariances from the statistics literature; on the other, distances between embeddings of distributions to reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), as established in machine learning. The equivalence holds when energy distances are computed with semimetrics of negative type, in which case a kernel may be defined such that the RKHS distance between distributions corresponds exactly to the energy distance. We determine the class of pro…
We introduce kernel nonparametric tests for Lancaster three-variable interaction and for total independence, using embeddings of signed measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The resulting test statistics are straightforward to compute, and are used in powerful interaction tests, which are consistent against all alternatives for a large family of reproducing kernels. We show the Lancaster test to be sensitive to cases where two independent causes individually have weak influence on a third dependent variable, but their combined effect has a strong influence. This makes the Lancaster…
Institute for Program Structures and Data Organization, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院程序结构与数据组织研究所）；Department of Statistics, London School of Economics（伦敦政治经济学院统计系）
Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology – BIPS, Bremen, Germany（莱布尼茨预防研究与流行病学研究所 – BIPS，不来梅，德国）；Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany（不来梅大学数学与计算机科学学院，不来梅，德国）
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Universitat de València（瓦伦西亚大学）
Current adoption of machine learning in industrial, societal and economical activities has raised concerns about the fairness, equity and ethics of automated decisions. Predictive models are often developed using biased datasets and thus retain or even exacerbate biases in their decisions and recommendations. Removing the sensitive covariates, such as gender or race, is insufficient to remedy this issue since the biases may be retained due to other related covariates. We present a regularization approach to this problem that trades off predictive accuracy of the learned models (with respect to…
We propose a method for feature selection that employs kernel-based measures of independence to find a subset of covariates that is maximally predictive of the response. Building on past work in kernel dimension reduction, we show how to perform feature selection via a constrained optimization problem involving the trace of the conditional covariance operator. We prove various consistency results for this procedure, and also demonstrate that our method compares favorably with other state-of-the-art algorithms on a variety of synthetic and real data sets.
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）
We provide a unifying framework linking two classes of statistics used in two-sample and independence testing: on the one hand, the energy distances and distance covariances from the statistics literature; on the other, maximum mean discrepancies (MMD), that is, distances between embeddings of distributions to reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), as established in machine learning. In the case where the energy distance is computed with a semimetric of negative type, a positive definite kernel, termed distance kernel, may be defined such that the MMD corresponds exactly to the energy dista…
Kernel-based tests provide a simple yet effective framework that use the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to design non-parametric testing procedures. In this paper we propose new theoretical tools that can be used to study the asymptotic behaviour of kernel-based tests in several data scenarios, and in many different testing problems. Unlike current approaches, our methods avoid using lengthy $U$ and $V$ statistics expansions and limit theorems, that commonly appear in the literature, and works directly with random functionals on Hilbert spaces. Therefore, our framework leads to a …
