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arXiv 1402.0722math.STstat.TH
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非平稳时间序列回归的非参数规格

Nonparametric specification for non-stationary time series regression

Zhou Zhou

摘要:

我们研究了广义似然比检验(GLRT)的行为(范,张和张[安。29(2001)153-193]),其中回归量和误差是非平稳时间序列并且可以互相关。研究发现,在弱相关和非平稳的情况下,广义似然比保持了局部选择检测的极大极小率。然而,在一般情况下,Wilks现象以及经典的残差自助法是敏感的条件异方差的错误,非平稳性或时间依赖性。平均测试建议,以减轻带宽的选择测试的敏感性,并示出比基于单一带宽的测试更强大。提出了一种可供选择的自举方法,并证明了该方法在对非平稳时间序列的时变系数模型进行推断时是一致的。

英文摘要:

We investigate the behavior of the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) (Fan, Zhang and Zhang [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 153-193]) for time varying coefficient models where the regressors and errors are non-stationary time series and can be cross correlated. It is found that the GLRT retains the minimax rate of local alternative detection under weak dependence and non-stationarity. However, in general, the Wilks phenomenon as well as the classic residual bootstrap are sensitive to either conditional heteroscedasticity of the errors, non-stationarity or temporal dependence. An averaged test is suggested to alleviate the sensitivity of the test to the choice of bandwidth and is shown to be more powerful than tests based on a single bandwidth. An alternative wild bootstrap method is proposed and shown to be consistent when making inference of time varying coefficient models for non-stationary time series.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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