For many taxa, the current high rates of extinction are likely to result in a significant loss of biodiversity. The evolutionary heritage of biodiversity is frequently quantified by a measure called phylogenetic diversity (PD). We predict the loss of PD under a wide class of phylogenetic tree models, where speciation rates and extinction rates may be time-dependent, and assuming independent random species extinctions at the present. We study the loss of PD when $K$ contemporary species are selected uniformly at random from the $N$ extant species as the surviving taxa, while the remaining $N-K$ become extinct. We consider two models of species sampling, the so-called field of bullets model, where each species independently survives the extinction event at the present with probability $p$, and a model for which the number of surviving species is fixed.
We provide explicit formulae for the expected remaining PD in both models, conditional on $N=n$, conditional on $K=k$, or conditional on both events. When $N=n$ is fixed, we show the convergence to an explicit deterministic limit of the ratio of new to initial PD, as $n\to\infty$, both under the field of bullets model, and when $K=k_n$ is fixed and depends on $n$ in such a way that $k_n/n$ converges to $p$. We also prove the convergence of this ratio as $T\to\infty$ in the supercritical, time-homogeneous case, where $N$ simultaneously goes to $\infty$, thereby strengthening previous results of Mooers et al. (2012).
Phylogenetic diversity indices such as the Fair Proportion (FP) index are frequently discussed as prioritization criteria in biodiversity conservation. They rank species according to their contribution to overall diversity by taking into account the unique and shared evolutionary history of each species as indicated by its placement in an underlying phylogenetic tree. Traditionally, phylogenetic trees were inferred from single genes and the resulting gene trees were assumed to be a valid estimate for the species tree, i.e., the "true" evolutionary history of the species under consideration. Ho…
Phylogenetic Diversity (PD) is a prominent quantitative measure of the biodiversity of a collection of present-day species (taxa). This measure is based on the evolutionary distance among the species in the collection. Loosely speaking, if $\mathcal{T}$ is a rooted phylogenetic tree whose leaf set $X$ represents a set of species and whose edges have real-valued lengths (weights), then the PD score of a subset $S$ of $X$ is the sum of the weights of the edges of the minimal subtree of $\mathcal{T}$ connecting the species in $S$. In this paper, we define several natural variants of the PD score …
It is generally accepted that "diversity" is associated with success in evolutionary algorithms. However, diversity is a broad concept that can be measured and defined in a multitude of ways. To date, most evolutionary computation research has measured diversity using the richness and/or evenness of a particular genotypic or phenotypic property. While these metrics are informative, we hypothesize that other diversity metrics are more strongly predictive of success. Phylogenetic diversity metrics are a class of metrics popularly used in biology, which take into account the evolutionary history …
In conservation biology, phylogenetic diversity (PD) provides a way to quantify the impact of the current rapid extinction of species on the evolutionary `Tree of Life'. This approach recognises that extinction not only removes species but also the branches of the tree on which unique features shared by the extinct species arose. In this paper, we investigate three questions that are relevant to PD. The first asks how many sets of species of given size $k$ preserve the maximum possible amount of PD in a given tree. The number of such maximum PD sets can be very large, even for moderate-sized p…
Planning for the protection of species often involves difficult choices about which species to prioritize, given constrained resources. One way of prioritizing species is to consider their "evolutionary distinctiveness", i.e. their relative evolutionary isolation on a phylogenetic tree. Several evolutionary isolation metrics or phylogenetic diversity indices have been introduced in the literature, among them the so-called Fair Proportion index (also known as the "evolutionary distinctiveness" score). This index apportions the total diversity of a tree among all leaves, thereby providing a simp…
Properties of biodiversity indices that incorporate future extinction risk
University of Canterbury（坎特伯雷大学）；New Jersey Institute of Technology（新泽理工学院）；Northwestern University（西北大学）；The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Simon Fraser University（西蒙菲莎大学）
Biological living systems in general exhibit complex and diverse dynamics. The latter, in particular, is essential, since diversification increases the odds of survival of an organism while reducing the risk of extinction of the population. Primarily, diversification is a consequence of the randomness in the replication process of a biological cell, which eventually manifests into a motley set of macroscopic features of an individual. These heterogeneous features of individuals constitutes for diversity in population. Cancer is a prime example of such a complex system where the transformed cel…
Scaling Laws for Function Diversity and Specialization Across Socioeconomic and Biological Complex Systems
MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院）；Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院数据、系统与社会研究所）；Santa Fe Institute（圣塔菲研究所）；Graduate School of Business, Seoul National University（首尔大学商学院）；Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems（西北复杂系统研究所）；London School of Economics and Political Science（伦敦政治经济学院）
