进化论的贝叶斯支持：检测灵长类家族子集中的系统发育信号
Bayesian support for Evolution: detecting phylogenetic signal in a subset of the primate family
摘要：
进化论认为，物种的多样性可以用带有变异的血统来解释。因此，所有生物都是通过共同的祖先联系在一起的。这个进化过程一定在我们的分子组成中留下了痕迹。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个随机化的程序，以确定一组5种灵长类动物的家庭，即猕猴，guereza，猩猩，黑猩猩和人类，保留了这些痕迹在其分子。首先，我们通过两个玩具例子来介绍随机化方法，从而理解其逻辑。然后，我们进行了DNA数据分析，以评估灵长类动物组是否包含系统发育信息，这些信息将它们联系在一个共同的进化历史中。这是通过监测贝叶斯测量进行的，称为边际似然，我们使用嵌套抽样进行估计。我们发现，如果这些灵长类物种没有共同的祖先，那么在数据中观察到的关系是不寻常的。结果与进化论完全一致。
英文摘要：
The theory of evolution states that the diversity of species can be explained by descent with modification. Therefore, all living beings are related through a common ancestor. This evolutionary process must have left traces in our molecular composition. In this work, we present a randomization procedure in order to determine if a group of 5 species of the primate family, namely, macaque, guereza, orangutan, chimpanzee and human, has retained these traces in its molecules. Firstly, we present the randomization methodology through two toy examples, which allow to understand its logic. We then carry out a DNA data analysis to assess if the group of primates contains phylogenetic information which links them in a joint evolutionary history. This is carried out by monitoring a Bayesian measure, called marginal likelihood, which we estimate by using nested sampling. We found that it would be unusual to get the relationship observed in the data among these primate species if they had not shared a common ancestor. The results are in total agreement with the theory of evolution.
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