对冲我们的赌注：物种对未来系统发育多样性的预期贡献
Hedging our bets: the expected contribution of species to future phylogenetic diversity
摘要：
如果物种灭绝的预测成立，那么今天的“生命之树”可能与（比如）100年后的完全不同。我们描述了一种技术来量化每个物种可能对未来生物多样性做出多大贡献，以其对系统发育多样性的预期贡献来衡量。我们的方法考虑了所有可能的情况下，将在未来的某个时间存在的物种集，并根据其可能性下的独立（但不相同）分布的物种灭绝的权重。虽然灭绝的情况下，通常可以是非常大的数量，我们表明，有一个简单的算法，将快速计算这个指数。该方法的实施和应用的原猴纲灵长类动物作为一个测试案例，相关的物种排名进行比较，相关的措施（“沙普利指数”）。我们描述的指数生根和无根树，和修改，也包括焦点类群的灭绝概率，使其直接可比一些新的保护指标。
英文摘要：
If predictions for species extinctions hold, then the `tree of life' today may be quite different to that in (say) 100 years. We describe a technique to quantify how much each species is likely to contribute to future biodiversity, as measured by its expected contribution to phylogenetic diversity. Our approach considers all possible scenarios for the set of species that will be extant at some future time, and weights them according to their likelihood under an independent (but not identical) distribution on species extinctions. Although the number of extinction scenarios can typically be very large, we show that there is a simple algorithm that will quickly compute this index. The method is implemented and applied to the prosimian primates as a test case, and the associated species ranking is compared to a related measure (the `Shapley index'). We describe indices for rooted and unrooted trees, and a modification that also includes the focal taxon's probability of extinction, making it directly comparable to some new conservation metrics.
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