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arXiv 1303.4201q-bio.PE
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年龄结构传染病模型的早期渐近收敛速度

The rate of convergence to early asymptotic behaviour in age-structured epidemic models

Christopher A. Rhodes, Thomas House

摘要:

年龄结构在许多流行病模型中都有体现。通常,假设这样的模型在易受影响的群体被明显耗尽之前迅速收敛到早期渐近行为是方便的。我们利用动力系统理论表明,对于一些合理的参数值,这种收敛可能是缓慢的。因此,在对年龄结构流行病模型进行参数化时,应考虑这种可能性。

英文摘要:

Age structure is incorporated in many types of epidemic model. Often it is convenient to assume that such models converge to early asymptotic behaviour quickly, before the susceptible population has been appreciably depleted. We make use of dynamical systems theory to show that for some reasonable parameter values, this convergence can be slow. Such a possibility should therefore be considered when parameterising age-structured epidemic models.

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