Existence, multiplicity and stability of endemic states for an age-structured S-I epidemic model

具有质量作用的扩散SIS传染病模型的地方病平衡点的多重性

Multiplicity of endemic equilibria for a diffusive SIS epidemic model with mass-action

针对带质量作用的扩散SIS传染病模型，研究证明在合适参数下存在多个地方病平衡点，解答了$\text{mathcal{R}}_0$不同取值下的相关公开问题，发现简单非线性下模型也可出现S形或后向分岔曲线。

预测传染性疾病地方性流行与流行病阶段之间的变化：以 COVID-19 为例

Forecasting the changes between endemic and epidemic phases of a contagious disease, with the example of COVID-19

本文提出基于14天新增病例分布的变异系数、偏度、峰度和熵，并通过 PCA 构建评分，以预测 COVID-19 等传染病从地方性流行转入流行病阶段的时间。

Dynamics and asymptotic profiles of endemic equilibrium for two frequency-dependent SIS epidemic models with cross-diffusion

This paper is concerned with two frequency-dependent SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion models in heterogeneous environment, with a cross-diffusion term modeling the effect that susceptible individuals tend to move away from higher concentration of infected individuals. It is first shown that the corresponding Neumann initial-boundary value problem in an $n$-dimensional bounded smooth domain possesses a unique global classical solution which is uniformly-in-time bounded regardless of the strength of the cross-diffusion and the spatial dimension $n$. It is further shown that, even in the presence …

On a diffusive SIS epidemic model with mass action mechanism and birth-death effect: Analysis, simulations and comparison with other mechanisms

In the present paper, we are concerned with an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model governed by mass action infection mechanism and linear birth-death growth with no flux boundary condition. By performing qualitative analysis, we study the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, uniform persistence property in terms of the basic reproduction number and the global stability of the endemic equilibrium in homogeneous environment, and investigate the asymptotic profile of endemic equilibria (when exist) in heterogeneous environment as one of the movement rate of the susceptible and infected po…

对流环境中带线性源的空间SIS传染病模型的定性分析 II：饱和发生率

Qualitative analysis on a spatial SIS epidemic model with linear source in advective environments II saturated incidence

针对带饱和发生率与线性源的反应-扩散-对流SIS传染病模型，分析其阈值动力学、地方病平衡点稳定性及各因素对疾病传播的影响，明确对流、扩散速率、饱和作用与线性源的不同作用。

Evolutionary dynamics in an SI epidemic model with phenotype-structured susceptible compartment

We present an SI epidemic model whereby a continuous variable captures variability in proliferative potential and resistance to infection among susceptibles. The occurrence of heritable, spontaneous changes in these phenotype and the presence of a fitness trade-off between resistance to infection and proliferative potential are incorporated into the model. The model comprises an ODE for the number of infected individuals that is coupled with a partial integrodifferential equation for the population density of susceptibles through an integral term. The expression for the basic reproduction numb…