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arXiv 1202.1774astro-ph.SRphysics.data-an
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Wolf数序列自相关函数的长时间振荡与太阳活动预报的可能性

Long Time Oscillations of Wolf Number Series Autocorrelation Function and Possibility of Solar Activity Prediction

V. M. Zhuravlev, S. V. Letunovskiy

摘要:

利用月沃尔夫数序列(1749-2011年)分析了太阳活动的长期变化。显示存在稳定的振荡的自相关函数的沃尔夫数系列的周期接近42.5年。基于非平稳过程的假设,建立了自相关函数变化的统计模型。讨论了利用该模型预报太阳活动的问题。

英文摘要:

Results of analysis of long time variations of solar activities based on monthly Wolf number series (1749-2011 years) are represented. Shown the presence of stable oscillations in autocorrelation function for the Wolf numbers series with a period near 42.5 years. The statistical model of variations of autocorrelation function based on assumption of nonstationarity process are constructed. The question of using the model to predict the solar activity is discussed.

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