In this paper we prove the asymptotic efficiency of the model selection procedure proposed by the authors in the first part. To this end we introduce the robust risk as the least upper bound of the quadratical risk over a broad class of observation distributions. Asymptotic upper and lower bounds for the robust risk have been derived. The asymptotic efficiency of the procedure is proved. The Pinsker constant is found.
The paper considers the problem of robust estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with dependent disturbances given by a general square integrable semimartingale with unknown distribution. An example of such a noise is non-gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with the Lévy process subordinator, which is used to model the financial Black-Scholes type markets with jumps. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the weighted least square estimates, is proposed. Under general moment conditions on the noise distribution, sharp non-asymptotic oracle inequalities fo…
We consider the robust adaptive nonparametric estimation problem for a periodic function observed in the framework of a continuous time regression model with semimartingale noises.
In applications the properties of a stochastic feature often change gradually rather than abruptly, that is: after a constant phase for some time they slowly start to vary. In this paper we discuss statistical inference for the detection and the localisation of gradual changes in the jump characteristic of a discretely observed Ito semimartingale. We propose a new measure of time variation for the jump behaviour of the process. The statistical uncertainty of a corresponding estimate is analyzed by deriving new results on the weak convergence of a sequential empirical tail integral process and …
This paper presents the nonparametric inference for nonlinear volatility functionals of general multivariate Itô semimartingales, in high-frequency and noisy setting. Pre-averaging and truncation enable simultaneous handling of noise and jumps. Second-order expansion reveals explicit biases and a pathway to bias correction. Estimators based on this framework achieve the optimal convergence rate. A class of stable central limit theorems are attained with estimable asymptotic covariance matrices. This paper form a basis for infill asymptotic results of, for example, the realized Laplace transfor…
An adaptive nonparametric estimation procedure is constructed for heteroscedastic regression when the noise variance depends on the unknown regression. A non-asymptotic upper bound for a quadratic risk (oracle inequality) is obtained
An adaptive nonparametric estimation procedure is constructed for the estimation problem of heteroscedastic regression when the noise variance depends on the unknown regression. A non-asymptotic upper bound for a quadratic risk (an oracle inequality) is constructed.
This manuscript is a supplemental document providing the omitted material for our paper entitled "Nonparametric kernel estimation of the probability density function of regression errors using estimated residuals" [arXiv:1010.0439]. The paper is submitted to Journal of Nonparametric Statistics.
In this paper, we develop nonparametric inference on spatial regression models as an extension of Lu and Tj\ostheim(2014), which develops nonparametric inference on density functions of stationary spatial processes under domain expanding and infill (DEI) asymptotics. In particular, we derive multivariate central limit theorems of mean and variance functions of nonparametric spatial regression models. Built upon those results, we propose a method to construct confidence bands for mean and variance functions.
This paper concerns the estimation of the regression function at a given point in nonparametric heteroscedastic models with Gaussian noise or with noise having unknown distribution. In the two cases an asymptotically efficient kernel estimator is constructed for the minimax absolute error risk.
In this paper, we are concerned with nonparametric estimation of the multivariate regression function in the presence of right censored data. More precisely, we propose a statistic that is shown to be asymptotically normally distributed under the additive assumption, and that could be used to test for additivity in the censored regression setting.
We establish the asymptotic normality of the kernel type estimator for the regression function constructed from quasi-associated data when the explanatory variable takes its values in a separable Hilbert space.
This paper is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of the derivative of the regression function in a nonparametric regression model. We implement a very efficient and easy to handle statistical procedure based on the derivative of the recursive Nadaraya-Watson estimator. We establish the almost sure convergence as well as the asymptotic normality for our estimates. We also illustrate our nonparametric estimation procedure on simulated and real life data associated with sea shores water quality and valvometry.
In this study, we develop an asymptotic theory of nonparametric regression for a locally stationary functional time series. First, we introduce the notion of a locally stationary functional time series (LSFTS) that takes values in a semi-metric space. Then, we propose a nonparametric model for LSFTS with a regression function that changes smoothly over time. We establish the uniform convergence rates of a class of kernel estimators, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator of the regression function, and a central limit theorem of the NW estimator.
We introduce and study a local linear nonparametric regression estimator for censorship model. The main goal of this paper is, to establish the uniform almost sure consistency result with rate over a compact set for the new estimate. To support our theoretical result, a simulation study has been done to make comparison with the classical regression estimator.
The paper deals with asymptotic properties of the adaptive procedure proposed in the author paper (2007) for estimation of unknown nonparametric regression. We prove that this procedure is asymptotically efficient for a quadratic risk. It means that the asymptotic quadratic risk for this procedure coincides with a sharp lower bound.
We analyze the statistical properties of nonparametric regression estimators using covariates which are not directly observable, but have be estimated from data in a preliminary step. These so-called generated covariates appear in numerous applications, including two-stage nonparametric regression, estimation of simultaneous equation models or censored regression models. Yet so far there seems to be no general theory for their impact on the final estimator's statistical properties. Our paper provides such results. We derive a stochastic expansion that characterizes the influence of the generat…
We discuss nonparametric tests for parametric specifications of regression quantiles. The test is based on the comparison of parametric and nonparametric fits of these quantiles. The nonparametric fit is a Nadaraya-Watson quantile smoothing estimator. An asymptotic treatment of the test statistic requires the development of new mathematical arguments. An approach that makes only use of plugging in a Bahadur expansion of the nonparametric estimator is not satisfactory. It requires too strong conditions on the dimension and the choice of the bandwidth. Our alternative mathematical approach requi…
This paper deals with the nonparametric density estimation of the regression error term assuming its independence with the covariate. The difference between the feasible estimator which uses the estimated residuals and the unfeasible one using the true residuals is studied. An optimal choice of the bandwidth used to estimate the residuals is given. We also study the asymptotic normality of the feasible kernel estimator and its rate-optimality.
This paper develops a method to construct uniform confidence bands for a nonparametric regression function where a predictor variable is subject to a measurement error. We allow for the distribution of the measurement error to be unknown, but assume the availability of validation data or repeated measurements on the latent predictor variable. The proposed confidence band builds on the deconvolution kernel estimation and a novel application of the multiplier bootstrap method. We establish asymptotic validity of the proposed confidence band. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to derive as…
The main purpose is to estimate the regression function of a real random variable with functional explanatory variable by using a recursive nonparametric kernel approach. The mean square error and the almost sure convergence of a family of recursive kernel estimates of the regression function are derived. These results are established with rates and precise evaluation of the constant terms. Also, a central limit theorem for this class of estimators is established. The method is evaluated on simulations and real data set studies.
This paper considers a general class of nonparametric time series regression models where the regression function can be time-dependent. We establish an asymptotic theory for estimates of the time-varying regression functions. For this general class of models, an important issue in practice is to address the necessity of modeling the regression function as nonlinear and time-varying. To tackle this, we propose an information criterion and prove its selection consistency property. The results are applied to the U.S. Treasury interest rate data.
In this paper we consider the nonparametric estimation of density and regression functions with non-negative support using a gamma kernel procedure introduced by Chen (2000). Strong uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the corresponding estimators are established under a general ergodic assumption on the data generation process. Our results generalize those of Shi and Song (2016), obtained in the classic i.i.d. framework, and the works of Bouezmarni and Rombouts (2008, 2010b) and Gospodinov and Hirukawa (2007) for mixing time series.
In this paper we propose a new test for the hypothesis of a constant coefficient of variation in the common nonparametric regression model. The test is based on an estimate of the $L^2$-distance between the square of the regression function and variance function. We prove asymptotic normality of a standardized estimate of this distance under the null hypothesis and fixed alternatives and the finite sample properties of a corresponding bootstrap test are investigated by means of a simulation study. The results are applicable to stationary processes with the common mixing conditions and are used…
In several different fields, there is interest in analyzing the upper or lower tail quantile of the underlying distribution rather than mean or center quantile. However, the investigation of the tail quantile is difficult because of data sparsity. In this paper, we attempt to develop nonparametric quantile regression for the extremal quantile level. In extremal quantile regression, there are two types of technical conditions of the order of convergence of the quantile level: intermediate order or extreme order. For the intermediate order quantile, the ordinary nonparametric estimator is used. …
We consider the problem of estimating the value of a linear functional in nonparametric instrumental regression, where in the presence of an instrument W a response Y is modeled in dependence of an endogenous explanatory variable Z. The proposed estimator is based on dimension reduction and additional thresholding. The minimax optimal rate of convergence of the estimator is derived assuming that the structural function and the representer of the linear functional belong to some ellipsoids which are in a certain sense linked to the conditional expectation operator of Z given W. We illustrate th…
We present a greedy method for simultaneously performing local bandwidth selection and variable selection in nonparametric regression. The method starts with a local linear estimator with large bandwidths, and incrementally decreases the bandwidth of variables for which the gradient of the estimator with respect to bandwidth is large. The method--called rodeo (regularization of derivative expectation operator)--conducts a sequence of hypothesis tests to threshold derivatives, and is easy to implement. Under certain assumptions on the regression function and sampling density, it is shown that t…
Consider a Gaussian nonparametric regression problem having both an unknown mean function and unknown variance function. This article presents a class of difference-based kernel estimators for the variance function. Optimal convergence rates that are uniform over broad functional classes and bandwidths are fully characterized, and asymptotic normality is also established. We also show that for suitable asymptotic formulations our estimators achieve the minimax rate.
Asymptotic equivalence theory developed in the literature so far are only for bounded loss functions. This limits the potential applications of the theory because many commonly used loss functions in statistical inference are unbounded. In this paper we develop asymptotic equivalence results for robust nonparametric regression with unbounded loss functions. The results imply that all the Gaussian nonparametric regression procedures can be robustified in a unified way. A key step in our equivalence argument is to bin the data and then take the median of each bin. The asymptotic equivalence resu…
We address the issue of lack-of-fit testing for a parametric quantile regression. We propose a simple test that involves one-dimensional kernel smoothing, so that the rate at which it detects local alternatives is independent of the number of covariates. The test has asymptotically gaussian critical values, and wild bootstrap can be applied to obtain more accurate ones in small samples. Our procedure appears to be competitive with existing ones in simulations. We illustrate the usefulness of our test on birthweight data.
We consider the problem of predicting a real random variable from a functional explanatory variable. The problem is attacked by mean of nonparametric kernel approach which has been recently adapted to this functional context. We derive theoretical results by giving a deep asymptotic study of the behaviour of the estimate, including mean squared convergence (with rates and precise evaluation of the constant terms) as well as asymptotic distribution. Practical use of these results are relying on the ability to estimate these constants. Some perspectives in this direction are discussed including …
We present a general principle for estimating a regression function nonparametrically, allowing for a wide variety of data filtering, for example, repeated left truncation and right censoring. Both the mean and the median regression cases are considered. The method works by first estimating the conditional hazard function or conditional survivor function and then integrating. We also investigate improved methods that take account of model structure such as independent errors and show that such methods can improve performance when the model structure is true. We establish the pointwise asymptot…
Motivated by finance and technical applications, the objective of this paper is to consider adaptive estimation of regression and density distribution based on Fourier-Legendre expansion, and construction of confidence intervals - also adaptive. The estimators are asymptotically optimal and adaptive in the sense that they can adapt to unknown smoothness.
We investigate the nonparametric estimation for regression in a fixed-design setting when the errors are given by a field of dependent random variables. Sufficient conditions for kernel estimators to converge uniformly are obtained. These estimators can attain the optimal rates of uniform convergence and the results apply to a large class of random fields which contains martingale-difference random fields and mixing random fields.
We consider the problem of nonparametric regression under shape constraints. The main examples include isotonic regression (with respect to any partial order), unimodal/convex regression, additive shape-restricted regression, and constrained single index model. We review some of the theoretical properties of the least squares estimator (LSE) in these problems, emphasizing on the adaptive nature of the LSE. In particular, we study the behavior of the risk of the LSE, and its pointwise limiting distribution theory, with special emphasis to isotonic regression. We survey various methods for const…
We propose two nonparametric tests for investigating the pathwise properties of a signal modeled as the sum of a Lévy process and a Brownian semimartingale. Using a nonparametric threshold estimator for the continuous component of the quadratic variation, we design a test for the presence of a continuous martingale component in the process and a test for establishing whether the jumps have finite or infinite variation, based on observations on a discrete-time grid. We evaluate the performance of our tests using simulations of various stochastic models and use the tests to investigate the fine …
With regard to a three-step estimation procedure, proposed without theoretical discussion by Li and You in Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, for a nonparametric regression model with time-varying regression function, local stationary regressors and time-varying AR(p) (tvAR(p)) error process , we established all necessary asymptotic properties for each of estimator. We derive the convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the preliminary estimation of nonparametric regression function, establish the asymptotic distribution of time-varying coefficient functions in the error term, a…
In the nonparametric regression setting, we construct an estimator which is a continuous function interpolating the data points with high probability, while attaining minimax optimal rates under mean squared risk on the scale of Hölder classes adaptively to the unknown smoothness.
Based on the novel concept of multivariate center-outward quantiles introduced recently in Chernozhukov et al. (2017) and Hallin et al. (2021), we are considering the problem of nonparametric multiple-output quantile regression. Our approach defines nested conditional center-outward quantile regression contours and regions with given conditional probability content irrespective of the underlying distribution; their graphs constitute nested center-outward quantile regression tubes. Empirical counterparts of these concepts are constructed, yielding interpretable empirical regions and contours wh…
We consider nonparametric regression in the context of functional data, that is, when a random sample of functions is observed on a fine grid. We obtain a functional asymptotic normality result allowing to build simultaneous confidence bands (SCB) for various estimation and inference tasks. Two applications to a SCB procedure for the regression function and to a goodness-of-fit test for curvilinear regression models are proposed. The first one has improved accuracy upon the other available methods while the second can detect local departures from a parametric shape, as opposed to the usual goo…
We consider nonparametric estimation of a regression curve when the data are observed with multiplicative distortion which depends on an observed confounding variable. We suggest several estimators, ranging from a relatively simple one that relies on restrictive assumptions usually made in the literature, to a sophisticated piecewise approach that involves reconstructing a smooth curve from an estimator of a constant multiple of its absolute value, and which can be applied in much more general scenarios. We show that, although our nonparametric estimators are constructed from predictors of the…
In this paper, a nonparametric estimator is proposed for estimating the L1-median for multivariate conditional distribution when the covariates take values in an infinite dimensional space. The multivariate case is more appropriate to predict the components of a vector of random variables simultaneously rather than predicting each of them separately. While estimating the conditional L1-median function using the well-known Nadarya-Waston estimator, we establish the strong consistency of this estimator as well as the asymptotic normality. We also present some simulations and provide how to built…
In this paper we offer a unified approach to the problem of nonparametric regression on the unit interval. It is based on a universal, honest and non-asymptotic confidence region which is defined by a set of linear inequalities involving the values of the functions at the design points. Interest will typically centre on certain simplest functions in that region where simplicity can be defined in terms of shape (number of local extremes, intervals of convexity/concavity) or smoothness (bounds on derivatives) or a combination of both. Once some form of regularization has been decided upon the co…
We consider the problem of adaptive inference on a regression function at a point under a multivariate nonparametric regression setting. The regression function belongs to a Hölder class and is assumed to be monotone with respect to some or all of the arguments. We derive the minimax rate of convergence for confidence intervals (CIs) that adapt to the underlying smoothness, and provide an adaptive inference procedure that obtains this minimax rate. The procedure differs from that of Cai and Low (2004), intended to yield shorter CIs under practically relevant specifications. The proposed method…
We demonstrate and discuss nonasymptotic bounds in probability for the cost of a regression scheme with a general loss function from the perspective of the Rademacher theory, and for the optimality with respect to the average $L^{2}$-distance to the underlying conditional expectations of least squares regression outcomes from the perspective of the Vapnik-Chervonenkis theory. The results follow from an analysis involving independent but possibly nonstationary training samples and can be extended, in a manner that we explain and illustrate, to relevant cases in which the training sample exhibit…
Gaussian Process Regression and Kernel Ridge Regression are popular nonparametric regression approaches. Unfortunately, they suffer from high computational complexity rendering them inapplicable to the modern massive datasets. To that end a number of approximations have been suggested, some of them allowing for a distributed implementation. One of them is the divide and conquer approach, splitting the data into a number of partitions, obtaining the local estimates and finally averaging them. In this paper we suggest a novel computationally efficient fully data-driven algorithm, quantifying unc…
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）
We propose a nonparametric quantile regression method using deep neural networks with a rectified linear unit penalty function to avoid quantile crossing. This penalty function is computationally feasible for enforcing non-crossing constraints in multi-dimensional nonparametric quantile regression. We establish non-asymptotic upper bounds for the excess risk of the proposed nonparametric quantile regression function estimators. Our error bounds achieve optimal minimax rate of convergence for the Holder class, and the prefactors of the error bounds depend polynomially on the dimension of the pr…
This paper considers the problem of estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with a general square integrable semimartingale noise. A model selection adaptive procedure is proposed. Sharp non-asymptotic oracle inequalities have been derived.
In this paper, we consider an unknown functional estimation problem in a general nonparametric regression model with the feature of having both multiplicative and additive noise.We propose two new wavelet estimators in this general context. We prove that they achieve fast convergence rates under the mean integrated square error over Besov spaces. The obtained rates have the particularity of being established under weak conditions on the model. A numerical study in a context comparable to stochastic frontier estimation (with the difference that the boundary is not necessarily a production funct…
Institute of Environmental and Agricultural Biology (X-BIO), University of Tyumen（秋明大学生态与农业生物学研究所（X-BIO））；University of Mississippi（密西西比大学）
We consider regression estimation with modified ReLU neural networks in which network weight matrices are first modified by a function $α$ before being multiplied by input vectors. We give an example of continuous, piecewise linear function $α$ for which the empirical risk minimizers over the classes of modified ReLU networks with $l_1$ and squared $l_2$ penalties attain, up to a logarithmic factor, the minimax rate of prediction of unknown $β$-smooth function.
The jump behavior of an infinitely active Itô semimartingale can be conveniently characterized by a jump activity index of Blumenthal-Getoor type, typically assumed to be constant in time. We study Markovian semimartingales with a non-constant, state-dependent jump activity index and a non-vanishing continuous diffusion component. A nonparametric estimator for the functional jump activity index is proposed and shown to be asymptotically normal under combined high-frequency and long-time-span asymptotics. Furthermore, we propose a nonparametric drift estimator which is robust to symmetric jumps…
We investigate nonparametric regression methods based on spatial depth and quantiles when the response and the covariate are both functions. As in classical quantile regression for finite dimensional data, regression techniques developed here provide insight into the influence of the functional covariate on different parts, like the center as well as the tails, of the conditional distribution of the functional response. Depth and quantile based nonparametric regressions are useful to detect heteroscedasticity in functional regression. We derive the asymptotic behaviour of nonparametric depth a…
This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally Gaussian distribution. An example of such noise is the non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-Levy processes. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the improved weighted least square estimates, is proposed. Under some conditions on the noise distribution, sharp oracle inequality for the robust risk has been proved and the robust efficiency of the model selection…
