Victor Konev, Serguei Pergamenchtchikov
This paper considers the problem of estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with a general square integrable semimartingale noise. A model selection adaptive procedure is proposed. Sharp non-asymptotic oracle inequalities have been derived.
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The paper considers the problem of robust estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with dependent disturbances given by a general square integrable semimartingale with unknown distribution. An example of such a noise is non-gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with the Lévy process subordinator, which is used to model the financial Black-Scholes type markets with jumps. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the weighted least square estimates, is proposed. Under general moment conditions on the noise distribution, sharp non-asymptotic oracle inequalities fo…
This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally Gaussian distribution. An example of such noise is the non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-Levy processes. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the improved weighted least square estimates, is proposed. Under some conditions on the noise distribution, sharp oracle inequality for the robust risk has been proved and the robust efficiency of the model selection…
Many statistical estimation procedures lead to nonconvex optimization problems. Algorithms to solve these are often guaranteed to output a stationary point of the optimization problem. Oracle inequalities are an important theoretical instrument to asses the statistical performance of an estimator. Oracle results have focused on the theoretical properties of the uncomputable (global) minimum or maximum. In the present work a general framework used for convex optimization problems to derive oracle inequalities for stationary points is extended. A main new ingredient of these oracle inequalities …
An adaptive nonparametric estimation procedure is constructed for heteroscedastic regression when the noise variance depends on the unknown regression. A non-asymptotic upper bound for a quadratic risk (oracle inequality) is obtained
An adaptive nonparametric estimation procedure is constructed for the estimation problem of heteroscedastic regression when the noise variance depends on the unknown regression. A non-asymptotic upper bound for a quadratic risk (an oracle inequality) is constructed.
Rejoinder: 2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization [arXiv:0708.0083]
We study various constraints and conditions on the true coefficient vector and on the design matrix to establish non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the prediction error, estimation accuracy and variable selection for the Lasso estimator in high dimensional sparse regression models. We review results from the literature and we provide simpler and detailed derivation for several boundedness theorems. In addition, we complement the theory with illustrated examples.
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
We consider non parametric estimation problem for stochastic tomography regression model, i.e. we consider the estimation problem of function of multivariate variables (image) observed through its Radon transformation calculated with the random errors. For this problem we develop a new adaptive model selection method. By making use the Galtchouk and Pergamenshchikov approach we construct the model selection procedure for which we show a sharp non asymptotic oracle inequality for the both usual and robust quadratic risks, i.e. we show that the proposed procedure is optimal in the oracle inequal…
We derive oracle inequalities for the problems of isotonic and convex regression using the combination of $Q$-aggregation procedure and sparsity pattern aggregation. This improves upon the previous results including the oracle inequalities for the constrained least squares estimator. One of the improvements is that our oracle inequalities are sharp, i.e., with leading constant 1. It allows us to obtain bounds for the minimax regret thus accounting for model misspecification, which was not possible based on the previous results. Another improvement is that we obtain oracle inequalities both wit…
The paper deals with the problem of penalized empirical risk minimization over a convex set of linear functionals on the space of Hermitian matrices with convex loss and nuclear norm penalty. Such penalization is often used in low rank matrix recovery in the cases when the target function can be well approximated by a linear functional generated by a Hermitian matrix of relatively small rank (comparing with the size of the matrix). Our goal is to prove sharp low rank oracle inequalities that involve the excess risk (the approximation error) with constant equal to one and the random error term …
We consider the problem of recovering an unknown vector from noisy data with the help of projection estimates. The goal is to find a convex combination of these estimates with the minimal risk. We study an aggregation method based on the so-called exponential weighting and provide a new upper bound for the mean square risk of this method.
This paper is a survey of recent results on the adaptive robust non parametric methods for the continuous time regression model with the semi - martingale noises with jumps. The noises are modeled by the Lévy processes, the Ornstein -- Uhlenbeck processes and semi-Markov processes. We represent the general model selection method and the sharp oracle inequalities methods which provide the robust efficient estimation in the adaptive setting. Moreover, we present the recent results on the improved model selection methods for the nonparametric estimation problems.
In this paper,we consider a high-dimensional statistical estimation problem in which the the number of parameters is comparable or larger than the sample size. We present a unified analysis of the performance guarantees of exponential weighted aggregation and penalized estimators with a general class of data losses and priors which encourage objects which conform to some notion of simplicity/complexity. More precisely, we show that these two estimators satisfy sharp oracle inequalities for prediction ensuring their good theoretical performances. We also highlight the differences between them. …
This paper studies oracle properties of $\ell_1$-penalized least squares in nonparametric regression setting with random design. We show that the penalized least squares estimator satisfies sparsity oracle inequalities, i.e., bounds in terms of the number of non-zero components of the oracle vector. The results are valid even when the dimension of the model is (much) larger than the sample size and the regression matrix is not positive definite. They can be applied to high-dimensional linear regression, to nonparametric adaptive regression estimation and to the problem of aggregation of arbitr…
We show that empirical risk minimization procedures and regularized empirical risk minimization procedures satisfy nonexact oracle inequalities in an unbounded framework, under the assumption that the class has a subexponential envelope function. The main novelty, in addition to the boundedness assumption free setup, is that those inequalities can yield fast rates even in situations in which exact oracle inequalities only hold with slower rates. We apply these results to show that procedures based on $\ell_1$ and nuclear norms regularization functions satisfy oracle inequalities with a residua…
We propose a general family of algorithms for regression estimation with quadratic loss. Our algorithms are able to select relevant functions into a large dictionary. We prove that a lot of algorithms that have already been studied for this task (LASSO and Group LASSO, Dantzig selector, Iterative Feature Selection, among others) belong to our family, and exhibit another particular member of this family that we call Correlation Selector in this paper. Using general properties of our family of algorithm we prove oracle inequalities for IFS, for the LASSO and for the Correlation Selector, and com…
General oracle inequalities for a penalized log-likelihood criterion based on non-stationary data
本研究基于鞅方法推导了适用于非独立非平稳数据的惩罚对数似然准则Oracle不等式，在多类场景验证后发现其在强依赖数据场景下的结果与现有研究相当或更具通用性。
We address the problem of density estimation with $\mathbb{L}_s$-loss by selection of kernel estimators. We develop a selection procedure and derive corresponding $\mathbb{L}_s$-risk oracle inequalities. It is shown that the proposed selection rule leads to the estimator being minimax adaptive over a scale of the anisotropic Nikol'skii classes. The main technical tools used in our derivations are uniform bounds on the $\mathbb{L}_s$-norms of empirical processes developed recently by Goldenshluger and Lepski [Ann. Probab. (2011), to appear].
The theory of adaptive estimation and oracle inequalities for the case of Gaussian-shift--finite-interval experiments has made significant progress in recent years. In particular, sharp-minimax adaptive estimators and exact exponential-type oracle inequalities have been suggested for a vast set of functions including analytic and Sobolev with any positive index as well as for Efromovich--Pinsker and Stein blockwise-shrinkage estimators. Is it possible to obtain similar results for a more interesting applied problem of density estimation and/or the dual problem of characteristic function estima…
We consider the problem of combining a (possibly uncountably infinite) set of affine estimators in non-parametric regression model with heteroscedastic Gaussian noise. Focusing on the exponentially weighted aggregate, we prove a PAC-Bayesian type inequality that leads to sharp oracle inequalities in discrete but also in continuous settings. The framework is general enough to cover the combinations of various procedures such as least square regression, kernel ridge regression, shrinking estimators and many other estimators used in the literature on statistical inverse problems. As a consequence…
In a general counting process setting, we consider the problem of obtaining a prognostic on the survival time adjusted on covariates in high-dimension. Towards this end, we construct an estimator of the whole conditional intensity. We estimate it by the best Cox proportional hazards model given two dictionaries of functions. The first dictionary is used to construct an approximation of the logarithm of the baseline hazard function and the second to approximate the relative risk. We introduce a new data-driven weighted Lasso procedure to estimate the unknown parameters of the best Cox model app…
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
We observe $(X_i,Y_i)_{i=1}^n$ where the $Y_i$'s are real valued outputs and the $X_i$'s are $m\times T$ matrices. We observe a new entry $X$ and we want to predict the output $Y$ associated with it. We focus on the high-dimensional setting, where $m T \gg n$. This includes the matrix completion problem with noise, as well as other problems. We consider linear prediction procedures based on different penalizations, involving a mixture of several norms: the nuclear norm, the Frobenius norm and the $\ell_1$-norm. For these procedures, we prove sharp oracle inequalities, using a statistical learn…
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of "2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization" by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
Discussion of ``2004 IMS Medallion Lecture: Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization'' by V. Koltchinskii [arXiv:0708.0083]
We extend the dimension free Talagrand inequalities for convex distance \cite{talagrand:1995} using an extension of Marton's weak transport \cite{marton:1996a} to other metrics than the Hamming distance. We study the dual form of these weak transport inequalities for the euclidian norm and prove that it implies sub-gaussianity and convex Poincaré inequality \cite{bobkov:gotze:1999a}. We obtain new weak transport inequalities for non products measures extending the results of Samson in \cite{samson:2000}. Many examples are provided to show that the euclidian norm is an appropriate metric for cl…
We give oracle inequalities on procedures which combines quantization and variable selection via a weighted Lasso $k$-means type algorithm. The results are derived for a general family of weights, which can be tuned to size the influence of the variables in different ways. Moreover, these theoretical guarantees are proved to adapt the corresponding sparsity of the optimal codebooks, if appropriate. Even if there is no sparsity assumption on the optimal codebooks, our procedure is proved to be close to a sparse approximation of the optimal codebooks, as has been done for the Generalized Linear …
We study the absolute penalized maximum partial likelihood estimator in sparse, high-dimensional Cox proportional hazards regression models where the number of time-dependent covariates can be larger than the sample size. We establish oracle inequalities based on natural extensions of the compatibility and cone invertibility factors of the Hessian matrix at the true regression coefficients. Similar results based on an extension of the restricted eigenvalue can be also proved by our method. However, the presented oracle inequalities are sharper since the compatibility and cone invertibility fac…
Model selection is often performed by empirical risk minimization. The quality of selection in a given situation can be assessed by risk bounds, which require assumptions both on the margin and the tails of the losses used. Starting with examples from the 3 basic estimation problems, regression, classification and density estimation, we formulate risk bounds for empirical risk minimization under successively weakening conditions and prove them at a very general level, for general margin and power tail behavior of the excess losses.
We consider the problem of estimating a function $f\_{0}$ in logistic regression model. We propose to estimate this function $f\_{0}$ by a sparse approximation build as a linear combination of elements of a given dictionary of $p$ functions. This sparse approximation is selected by the Lasso or Group Lasso procedure. In this context, we state non asymptotic oracle inequalities for Lasso and Group Lasso under restricted eigenvalues assumption as introduced in \cite{BRT}.
We study the problem of estimating the one-point specification probabilities in non-necessary finite discrete random fields from partially observed independent samples. Our procedures are based on model selection by minimization of a penalized empirical criterion. The selected estimators satisfy sharp oracle inequalities in $L_2$-risk. We also obtain theoretical results on the slope heuristic for this problem, justifying the slope algorithm to calibrate the leading constant in the penalty. The practical performances of our methods are investigated in two simulation studies. We illustrate the u…
In this paper we study the problem of adaptive estimation of a multivariate function satisfying some structural assumption. We propose a novel estimation procedure that adapts simultaneously to unknown structure and smoothness of the underlying function. The problem of structural adaptation is stated as the problem of selection from a given collection of estimators. We develop a general selection rule and establish for it global oracle inequalities under arbitrary $\rL_p$--losses. These results are applied for adaptive estimation in the additive multi--index model.
Through the direct study of the analysis estimator we derive oracle inequalities with fast and slow rates by adapting the arguments involving projections by Dalalyan, Hebiri and Lederer (2017). We then extend the theory to the square root analysis estimator. Finally, we focus on (square root) total variation regularized estimators on graphs and obtain constant-friendly rates, which, up to log-terms, match previous results obtained by entropy calculations. We also obtain an oracle inequality for the (square root) total variation regularized estimator over the cycle graph.
We study the problem of nonparametric estimation under $\bL_p$-loss, $p\in [1,\infty)$, in the framework of the convolution structure density model on $\bR^d$. This observation scheme is a generalization of two classical statistical models, namely density estimation under direct and indirect observations. In Part I the original pointwise selection rule from a family of "kernel-type" estimators is proposed. For the selected estimator, we prove an $\bL_p$-norm oracle inequality and several of its consequences. In Part II the problem of adaptive minimax estimation under $\bL_p$--loss over the sca…
We consider the finite sample properties of the regularized high-dimensional Cox regression via lasso. Existing literature focuses on linear models or generalized linear models with Lipschitz loss functions, where the empirical risk functions are the summations of independent and identically distributed (iid) losses. The summands in the negative log partial likelihood function for censored survival data, however, are neither iid nor Lipschitz. We first approximate the negative log partial likelihood function by a sum of iid non-Lipschitz terms, then derive the non-asymptotic oracle inequalitie…
This note aims at presenting several new theoretical results for the compound Poisson point process, which follows the work of Zhang \emph{et al.} [Insurance~Math.~Econom.~59(2014), 325-336]. The first part provides a new characterization for a discrete compound Poisson point process (proposed by {Acz{é}l} [Acta~Math.~Hungar.~3(3)(1952), 219-224]), it extends the characterization of the Poisson point process given by Copeland and Regan [Ann.~Math.~(1936): 357-362]. Next, we derive some concentration inequalities for discrete compound Poisson point process (negative binomial random variable wit…
This paper establishes non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the prediction error and estimation accuracy of the LASSO in stationary vector autoregressive models. These inequalities are used to establish consistency of the LASSO even when the number of parameters is of a much larger order of magnitude than the sample size. We also give conditions under which no relevant variables are excluded. Next, non-asymptotic probabilities are given for the Adaptive LASSO to select the correct sparsity pattern. We then give conditions under which the Adaptive LASSO reveals the correct sparsity pattern as…
Inhomogeneous random graph models encompass many network models such as stochastic block models and latent position models. We consider the problem of statistical estimation of the matrix of connection probabilities based on the observations of the adjacency matrix of the network. Taking the stochastic block model as an approximation, we construct estimators of network connection probabilities -- the ordinary block constant least squares estimator, and its restricted version. We show that they satisfy oracle inequalities with respect to the block constant oracle. As a consequence, we derive op…
We study a set of regularization methods for high-dimensional linear regression models. These penalized estimators have the square root of the residual sum of squared errors as loss function, and any weakly decomposable norm as penalty function. This fit measure is chosen because of its property that the estimator does not depend on the unknown standard deviation of the noise. On the other hand, a generalized weakly decomposable norm penalty is very useful in being able to deal with different underlying sparsity structures. We can choose a different sparsity inducing norm depending on how we w…
The performance of Least Squares (LS) estimators is studied in isotonic, unimodal and convex regression. Our results have the form of sharp oracle inequalities that account for the model misspecification error. In isotonic and unimodal regression, the LS estimator achieves the nonparametric rate $n^{-2/3}$ as well as a parametric rate of order $k/n$ up to logarithmic factors, where $k$ is the number of constant pieces of the true parameter. In univariate convex regression, the LS estimator satisfies an adaptive risk bound of order $q/n$ up to logarithmic factors, where $q$ is the number of aff…
The effect of errors in variables in quantization is investigated. We prove general exact and non-exact oracle inequalities with fast rates for an empirical minimization based on a noisy sample $Z_i=X_i+ε_i,i=1,\ldots,n$, where $X_i$ are i.i.d. with density $f$ and $ε_i$ are i.i.d. with density $η$. These rates depend on the geometry of the density $f$ and the asymptotic behaviour of the characteristic function of $η$. This general study can be applied to the problem of $k$-means clustering with noisy data. For this purpose, we introduce a deconvolution $k$-means stochastic minimization which …
This paper deals with recovering an unknown vector $θ$ from the noisy data $Y=Aθ+σξ$, where $A$ is a known $(m\times n)$-matrix and $ξ$ is a white Gaussian noise. It is assumed that $n$ is large and $A$ may be severely ill-posed. Therefore, in order to estimate $θ$, a spectral regularization method is used, and our goal is to choose its regularization parameter with the help of the data $Y$. For spectral regularization methods related to the so-called ordered smoothers [see Kneip Ann. Statist. 22 (1994) 835--866], we propose new penalties in the principle of empirical risk minimization. The he…
Adaptive Nonparametric Estimation via Kernel Transport on Group Orbits: Oracle Inequalities and Minimax Rates
本文提出基于群轨道核传输的非参数估计框架，通过双空间方法建立oracle不等式并实现最小最大最优速率，同时在目标函数具有轨道结构时提升估计效率。
We obtain estimation error rates and sharp oracle inequalities for regularization procedures of the form \begin{equation*} \hat f \in argmin_{f\in F}\left(\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^N\ell(f(X_i), Y_i)+λ\|f\|\right) \end{equation*} when $\|\cdot\|$ is any norm, $F$ is a convex class of functions and $\ell$ is a Lipschitz loss function satisfying a Bernstein condition over $F$. We explore both the bounded and subgaussian stochastic frameworks for the distribution of the $f(X_i)$'s, with no assumption on the distribution of the $Y_i$'s. The general results rely on two main objects: a complexity functi…
The abundance of high-dimensional data in the modern sciences has generated tremendous interest in penalized estimators such as the lasso, scaled lasso, square-root lasso, elastic net, and many others. In this paper, we establish a general oracle inequality for prediction in high-dimensional linear regression with such methods. Since the proof relies only on convexity and continuity arguments, the result holds irrespective of the design matrix and applies to a wide range of penalized estimators. Overall, the bound demonstrates that generic estimators can provide consistent prediction with any …
The Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) serves an important role in statistics and machine learning. In this article, for i.i.d. variables, we obtain constant-specified and sharp concentration inequalities and oracle inequalities for the MLE only under exponential moment conditions. Furthermore, in a robust setting, the sub-Gaussian type oracle inequalities of the log-truncated maximum likelihood estimator are derived under the second-moment condition.
We consider the problem of estimating a sparse linear regression vector $β^*$ under a gaussian noise model, for the purpose of both prediction and model selection. We assume that prior knowledge is available on the sparsity pattern, namely the set of variables is partitioned into prescribed groups, only few of which are relevant in the estimation process. This group sparsity assumption suggests us to consider the Group Lasso method as a means to estimate $β^*$. We establish oracle inequalities for the prediction and $\ell_2$ estimation errors of this estimator. These bounds hold under a restri…
Adaptive Kernel Ridge Regression with Linear Structure: Sharp Oracle Inequalities and Minimax Optimality
本文提出一种改进的岭回归方法，通过引入显式线性成分提升模型性能，理论证明其在一般核函数下达到最小最大最优预测风险。
This paper considers the penalized least squares estimator with arbitrary convex penalty. When the observation noise is Gaussian, we show that the prediction error is a subgaussian random variable concentrated around its median. We apply this concentration property to derive sharp oracle inequalities for the prediction error of the LASSO, the group LASSO and the SLOPE estimators, both in probability and in expectation. In contrast to the previous work on the LASSO type methods, our oracle inequalities in probability are obtained at any confidence level for estimators with tuning parameters tha…
High-dimensional data have recently been analyzed because of data collection technology evolution. Although many methods have been developed to gain sparse recovery in the past two decades, most of these methods require selection of tuning parameters. As a consequence of this feature, results obtained with these methods heavily depend on the tuning. In this paper we study the theoretical properties of sign-constrained generalized linear models with convex loss function, which is one of the sparse regression methods without tuning parameters. Recent studies on this topic have shown that, in the…
We tackle the problem of estimating a regression function observed in an instrumental regression framework. This model is an inverse problem with unknown operator. We provide a spectral cut-off estimation procedure which enables to derive oracle inequalities which warrants that our estimate, built without any prior knowledge, behaves as well as, up to $\log$ term, if the best model were known.
This paper consider penalized empirical loss minimization of convex loss functions with unknown non-linear target functions. Using the elastic net penalty we establish a finite sample oracle inequality which bounds the loss of our estimator from above with high probability. If the unknown target is linear this inequality also provides an upper bound of the estimation error of the estimated parameter vector. These are new results and they generalize the econometrics and statistics literature. Next, we use the non-asymptotic results to show that the excess loss of our estimator is asymptotically…
The main goal in this paper is to propose a new method for deriving oracle inequalities related to the exponential weighting method. For the sake of simplicity we focus on recovering an unknown vector from noisy data with the help of a family of ordered smoothers. The estimators withing this family are aggregated using the exponential weighting and the aim is to control the risk of the aggregated estimate. Based on simple probabilistic properties of the unbiased risk estimate, we derive new oracle inequalities and show that the exponential weighting permits to improve Kneip's oracle inequality…
We establish rates of convergences in time series forecasting using the statistical learning approach based on oracle inequalities. A series of papers extends the oracle inequalities obtained for iid observations to time series under weak dependence conditions. Given a family of predictors and $n$ observations, oracle inequalities state that a predictor forecasts the series as well as the best predictor in the family up to a remainder term $Δ_n$. Using the PAC-Bayesian approach, we establish under weak dependence conditions oracle inequalities with optimal rates of convergence. We extend previ…
We develop a new model selection method for the adaptive robust efficient nonparametric signal estimation observed with impulse noise which is defined by the general non Gaussian Lévy processes. On the basis of the developed method, we construct the estimation procedures which are analyzed in two settings: in non asymptotic and asymptotic ones. For the first time for such models we show non asymptotic sharp oracle inequalities for the quadratic and for the robust risks, i.e. we show that the constructed procedures are optimal in the sharp oracle inequalities sense. Next, by making use of the o…
Sharp oracle inequalities and universality of the AIC and FPE
本研究突破了以往AIC、FPE效率研究需线性独立新息的强假设，在通用弱依赖下建立精确奥拉克尔不等式，证明二者普适性，涵盖多种动力系统，其推论包含渐近效率。
Let $\mathcal{F}$ be a class of measurable functions $f:S\mapsto [0,1]$ defined on a probability space $(S,\mathcal{A},P)$. Given a sample (X_1,...,X_n) of i.i.d. random variables taking values in S with common distribution P, let P_n denote the empirical measure based on (X_1,...,X_n). We study an empirical risk minimization problem $P_nf\to \min$, $f\in \mathcal{F}$. Given a solution $\hat{f}_n$ of this problem, the goal is to obtain very general upper bounds on its excess risk \[\mathcal{E}_P(\hat{f}_n):=P\hat{f}_n-\inf_{f\in \mathcal{F}}Pf,\] expressed in terms of relevant geometric parame…
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