职业棒球生涯寿命分布与全垒打能力演变之研究
On the distribution of career longevity and the evolution of home run prowess in professional baseball
摘要：
统计分析是棒球的一个主要方面，从球员的平均水平到历史基准和记录。棒球的大部分宣传都是基于球员的超常发挥，有些是在一场比赛中，有些是在漫长的职业生涯中。职业生涯的统计数据是对球员进行分类和建立他们的历史遗产的一个指标。然而，记录和基准的概念假设棒球比赛的水平在时间上是固定的。在这里，我们表明，幂律概率密度函数，许多复杂系统，由竞争驱动的一个标志，管理职业生涯在棒球。我们也发现类似的幂律密度函数的所有主要性能指标的投手和击球手。使用兴奋剂有一段黑暗的历史，成为业余和职业体育运动的一个问题。我们在对过去25年中球员打出的本垒打进行分析时发现了与提高成绩药物一致的统计证据。米切尔报告[1]的调查结果证实了这一点，该报告对美国职业棒球大联盟使用非法类固醇进行了为期两年的调查，最近发现，在2003年的一项匿名调查中，超过5%的美国职业棒球大联盟球员对提高成绩的药物检测呈阳性。
英文摘要：
Statistical analysis is a major aspect of baseball, from player averages to historical benchmarks and records. Much of baseball fanfare is based around players exceeding the norm, some in a single game and others over a long career. Career statistics serve as a metric for classifying players and establishing their historical legacy. However, the concept of records and benchmarks assumes that the level of competition in baseball is stationary in time. Here we show that power-law probability density functions, a hallmark of many complex systems that are driven by competition, govern career longevity in baseball. We also find similar power laws in the density functions of all major performance metrics for pitchers and batters. The use of performance-enhancing drugs has a dark history, emerging as a problem for both amateur and professional sports. We find statistical evidence consistent with performance-enhancing drugs in the analysis of home runs hit by players in the last 25 years. This is corroborated by the findings of the Mitchell Report [1], a two-year investigation into the use of illegal steroids in major league baseball, which recently revealed that over 5 percent of major league baseball players tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in an anonymous 2003 survey.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
